Blue Jays' Hernandez looking to continue building after productive, under-appreciated 2021

CLEARWATER, Fla. — We forget about Teoscar Hernandez. At least as much as one can forget a 2021 all-star, a back-to-back silver slugger, a recipient of down-ballot MVP votes each of the last two seasons.

As much as you can overlook a .282/.339/.541 slash line and the 132 wRC+ its produced over more than 1,000 plate appearances since June 5, 2019, when Hernandez returned from a minor-league demotion a different guy. As much as one can neglect the fact Hernandez — acquired with Nori Aoki’s contract for what was left of the since-retired Francisco Liriano in 2017, you may remember — has established himself among the game’s elite offensive threats.

"We sent him down in 2019,” remembers Toronto Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo. “And since he came back, he's been one of the best hitters in baseball. And you can look at the numbers.”

Story checks out. Since that June day nearly three years ago, only 37 MLB hitters (minimum 600 plate appearances) have a higher wRC+ than Hernandez and only 31 have a higher wOBA. Only 26 have a higher hard-hit rate; only 23 a higher isolated power; only 10 have hit more home runs. Blue Jays fans who spent the last few weeks pining for the team to trade for Jose Ramirez might not realize they already have a player producing Ramirez-esque numbers standing in right field.

And that includes Hernandez’s first 39 games of 2019 — a miserable, 141-plate-appearance stretch in which he hit .189/.262/.299 and got himself demoted. By his own admission, Hernandez’s confidence was at an all-time low. His confidence these days?

“I mean, it’s maybe to the skies right now,” he says. “Obviously, in the past, I didn't have every day playing time. Now, I think I own my spot.”

There’s certainly no questioning that. Health willing, Hernandez will be in right field for the Blue Jays on opening day, likely hitting fourth in Montoyo’s batting order as he did 77 times last season.

And considering how well conditioned the 29-year-old is, there’s little reason for Montoyo to ever do much else. After he returned from a 16-game absence due to COVID-19 last April, the only games Hernandez missed over the remainder of the season came during a three-day stretch in June when he went on the paternity list for the birth of his second child.

“He's a hard worker. You can see it in his body — this guy is locked in, his off-seasons are always really good,” Montoyo says. “He's good enough to hit second. [George] Springer's almost like him. Teo could leadoff and steal bases. Because he's got all the tools. He could hit anywhere in the lineup from six up.”

That’s fair. If he were playing for another, less talent-laden organization, Hernandez might be hitting second behind a decent bat with some speed and on-base skills, and ahead of an all-or-nothing, high-strikeout slugger selling out for power. But because he’s playing for the Blue Jays — easily a top-five offence in the game — Hernandez is likely to hit cleanup, following a top-three buzzsaw of Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., each of whom finished with a wRC+ north of 120 last season.

Oh, and ahead of Matt Chapman — a huge power threat with three .810-plus OPS seasons on his resume. Or maybe Lourdes Gurriel Jr., whose .889 second-half OPS last season ranked 12th in the American League. Or even Alejandro Kirk, the 23-year-old bowling ball with a preternatural hit tool that produced an 11 per cent barrel rate last season.

Bemoan the lack of a left-handed bat in the Blue Jays lineup all you want. Just feel free to also provide the name of an available left-handed hitter who would improve on any of the above in terms of overall offensive output. Runs are runs, no matter how you produce them. And if Montoyo’s lining up the aforementioned seven hitters — each of them projected by ZIPS for an OPS of .763 or higher — atop his batting order most days, his team’s going to score them in bunches.

It's a knock-on benefit of adding a hitter like Chapman, who led MLB with 4.29 pitches per plate appearance in 2021. It makes Toronto’s batting order that much more of a grind to get through. It wears on the opposition. It exhausts starters, gets into bullpens early, fatigues pitching staffs.

Adding a good hitter to an already very good offence has an exponential effect. So, for as good of a hitter as Hernandez has been since June, 2019, he stands to be even better going forward with a patient, dangerous bat like Chapman’s behind him.

“The at-bats are going to be harder for pitchers when you have guys like that in the lineup,” Hernandez says. “It makes you go up to the plate with a lot more confidence. Because you know you're going to get a lot of guys on base. And when you have guys in front of you — those kind of guys like Vladdy, Bo, Springer, we had Semien last year — you know you're going to have more confidence. Because as you see them having success in the big leagues, I think it puts you in a better spot for you to have success, too.”

More success for Hernandez would be remarkable considering how far he’s come. Since returning from the minors in 2019, he’s already made dramatic strides with his approach — improving his swing decisions, upgrading his quality of contact, and finding ways to maximize his perpetually sky-high exit velocities.

He’ll always be an aggressive hitter who chases plenty, gets fooled, and strikes out at a well above-average clip. But that’s OK in today’s game. Particularly if you can post an 87th percentile barrel rate like Hernandez did in 2021.

That’s the kind of solid, line drive contact — Hernandez has added seven points to his line drive percentage since 2019 — that produces consistent, extra-base hit damage. It’s no accident that Hernandez’s expected weighted on-base average on contact ranked within the top five per cent of the league last season. We forget about him, always. But his production’s just as critical to Toronto’s success as the more heralded stars hitting before and after him.

“He's got the tools to be that good. And now he's one of the best hitters in baseball. He's proved it for the last, what, two years now? Two-and-a-half?” Montoyo says. “He's all about his approach. When you’ve got an approach like that, it doesn't matter where you're hitting or who's behind you. Even if he's got somebody that's not hitting behind him, he'll be fine. Credit to him.”

The Blue Jays fell to the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday afternoon, 3-2, in their second game of the condensed Grapefruit League schedule. Aside from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Orelvis Martinez hitting a pair of missiles over the left field wall — Martinez’s just edged Guerrero’s in exit velocity, 105.1 to 104.5 — the most notable performance came from Jordan Romano, the Blue Jays closer who made his spring training debut with a clean inning.

Romano earned weak contact from each of the three batters he faced — groundout, pop out, fly out — while mixing and matching with eight fastballs and five sliders. Romano’s heater averaged 95.7-m.p.h., not far of the 97.6-m.p.h. it sat at in 2021 when he established himself as one of the game’s premier closers. The 28-year-old says he always wants to throw hard, but typically tries to ease up to his maximum velocity as the exhibition schedule wears on.

“It felt good,” Romano said. “Honestly, I just wanted to be in the box with all my pitches, throw strikes. I think for the first one, it's pretty important to get in a good groove and build on it.”

He certainly did that, earning 9 strikes on 13 pitches, many of them on the plate

Romano’s slider is typically the pitch it takes longer to gain a feel for when re-entering competition after a long off-season. But the pitch was a particular focus of Romano’s this winter and he felt it coming out of his hand better on Saturday than it has early in prior camps.

Of course, it helps not pitching on a torn meniscus in his left knee as Romano did over his final handful of outings in 2021. Romano had the issue surgically repaired following the season, making these early spring outings critical as he tests his strength on his plant leg and regains a feel for exploding down the mound.

“I feel under control, I feel solid,” Romano said. “Typically, once you get that back-to-back in you, that's when you're 100 per cent ready.”

But it’s still baseball, isn’t it? Every pitcher has some jitters before their first outing of the year. Everyone at this level loves to compete. So, Romano can enter his outings trying to gradually ramp up, trying to work on this or that. But then he gets out there and anything goes.

“My mentality is I'm still trying to make the team,” Romano said. “Even though I probably have a spot. I just want to fight out there. I don't want to lose that. I think that's what has made me good. I've always wanted to get better and make the team. So, I'm coming into spring with the same mindset.

“Going into it, I feel like, 'Oh, when I go out there, I could work on certain things. I have a little more freedom.' But once I get up there, it's not like that. I just want to get them out any way possible.”