Blue Jays interested in dozens of players – what does that really mean?

SCOTTSDALE, AZ. – Late Wednesday morning, as the GM Meetings unfolded at the Omni Resort & Spa, a veteran baseball executive pulled out his phone and found a recent boxscore to make a point. He’d just been asked a question about the inner workings of front offices: how many players, typically, would a team show some level of off-season interest?

The executive looked at his phone and worked his way down the lineups, name by name.

“Talked about him, tried to sign him, talked about him a couple times.”

When he arrived at a veteran player, his tone shifted from mild boredom to surprise.

“Hey, we never actually tried to get him!” the executive exclaimed.

He isn’t the only one who’s expressed interest in a long list of players over the years. Asked whether he checks in on 10 players per winter or 150, one GM said it’s “on the larger end of the numbers you just said.”

Another GM estimated he has some interest in trading for 100 players per winter before whittling that list down to 10 serious discussions, one or two of which might result in actual trades. And that’s before you even get to free agency.

This time of year front offices do vast amounts of background work on players they’ll never sign or trade for, preferring to be over-prepared. It’s a necessary step on the way to completing deals, but can lead to confusion. After all, not all interest is created equal, and discerning between due diligence and more serious pursuits is an important skill for both executives and agents.

“I think that's relationships,” Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said Tuesday. “You learn how real that interest is from things that are being said and things that aren't being said … The same goes for that type of engagement with GMs on trades. As relationships get stronger and stronger, your sense for how realistic things are really takes shape.”

Brace yourself now. The Blue Jays will be linked to Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and countless others. They do have interest in all three. It’s not wrong. And yet, that interest is best understood in the context of the team’s full off-season roadmap.

With four prominent position players hitting free agency, almost any position player fits their roster. So while the Blue Jays are surely exploring the possibility of a deal with Bellinger, they must also operate on many other parallel tracks, showing interest in Jeimer Candelario and Amed Rosario, for instance, even if their agents aren’t waxing poetic about them in the hotel courtyard.

“When you have the aroma of youth, teams want that cologne on their vanity,” Scott Boras said of the 28-year-old Bellinger Wednesday morning.

Interest is one thing – seriously, who wouldn’t want Bellinger? – but the real question is where traction develops and which teams make offers. The initial expression of interest at the GM Meetings is simply step one in that process.

Of course, not every front office has to prepare for the off-season like they’re cramming for a test. There are times when executives have significant portions of their roster in place, allowing them to bypass some segments of the market. In Atlanta, for instance, Alex Anthopoulos isn’t going to worry too much about the third base market when he has Austin Riley locked up through 2032.

“Positions that are spoken for, you’re not going to spend a ton of time,” Anthopoulos said. “You’re aware (of what’s available), but it’s positions of need or areas that you might have holes, that’s where you’ll spend the bulk of your time.”

Plus, experienced general managers have a sense of how the market will move, allowing them to prioritize the areas likely to develop early before moving on to other players once certain market makers change teams.

“You almost have to do it in waves,” said Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. “There’s a first wave of 20-30 players that you figure at least 5-10 teams are going to be interested in. As guys come off the board, you’ve got to keep refreshing things as you gauge interest level or maybe have a concern that arises or trade opportunity that arises that moves the list around.”

“We’ve also had a lot of time to prepare,” added Zaidi, whose Giants finished 79-83 last year. “We have no excuses for not being ready.” 

This off-season, 169 players hit free agency. Some estimate that another 150 come up in serious trade talks league-wide. All told, then, a substantial portion of the league comes up in conversation this time of year. 

For fans, it’s a source of intrigue. For players, it can be distracting. And for the executives who know all too well how thorough their rival teams are, developments elsewhere are sometimes best left alone.

“I mean we’re aware of what’s reported, but you have no idea what’s true and what isn’t, so we don’t really spend time on that stuff,” Anthopoulos said. “At the end of the day you can’t worry about everyone else. You know who you want to get – just build the best team you can.”