LAS VEGAS – A week into MLB free agency, the starting pitching market has emerged as an early priority for the Toronto Blue Jays, with team executives seriously exploring fits for some prominent arms and expressing interest in pushing those conversations forward in the weeks to come.
There will be plenty of competition as the Cubs need to rebuild most of their rotation while the White Sox, Orioles, Guardians, Padres and Braves are among the other teams pursuing free-agent pitching, according to sources involved in that market. That’s before we get to the Yankees, who have told people they’re open to signing a free agent, then trading from their enviable rotation depth to address other needs.
At the same time, others describe the Yankees and Red Sox as relatively passive through the first week and a half of free agency.
As for the Blue Jays, they’re motivated to address a projected rotation that includes Dylan Cease, Jose Soriano, Trey Yesavage, Spencer Arrighetti and the rehabbing Cody Ponce, Bowden Francis and Jose Berrios. Mix in the expectation that Rule 5 pick Spencer Miles could aim for 100 or more innings next season and you can see why GM Ross Atkins has described this group as a strong start.
With Berrios looking “great,” Francis progressing well and Cease’s shoulder recovering from some late-season fatigue, the off-season is unfolding as planned from a health standpoint.
Still, there are plenty of reasons to attempt to add to that strength even as they juggle other pursuits – for instance, their initial conversations with free-agent hitters including Seiya Suzuki, Teruaki Sato and Brandon Lowe as well as various relievers. As last year showed, there’s truly no such thing as too much starting pitching.
“We're going to look to add to our offence and add to our starting pitching,” Atkins said Tuesday.
Atop the market there’s Tarik Skubal, and the Blue Jays are expected to remain in touch there while the Mets are viewed as the favourites. The next tier of free-agent starting pitchers includes Freddy Peralta, Michael King, Trevor Rogers, Kaima Taira, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kevin Gausman.
One plugged-in person predicted the Blue Jays would land a starter from that group given their apparent willingness to spend. And granted, there are lots of predictions flying around the Aria Hotel this week, and not all of them will prove accurate. But the Blue Jays, at minimum, are engaging with the top of this market.
When asked about the possibility of being aggressive in free agency, Atkins said that’s not the driving force behind the team’s moves.
“For us, it's about being prepared and not about being aggressive,” he clarified. “And you only can be aggressive and effective if you are prepared.”
Gray is believed by some to prefer playing close to his Nashville home, so that doesn’t make him an especially logical fit in Toronto, but that still leaves the Blue Jays plenty of options.
Meanwhile, if there’s one segment of free agency that could move sooner than the rest, it could be the left-handed relief market according to some agents. Speaking in general terms, Atkins acknowledged that the Blue Jays are aiming to add to their bullpen.
“In an ideal world, we get through an off-season where we can add to every aspect of our team,” he said.
When will it all start?
As MLB’s off-season began, agents and executives braced for a busy November.
Then, after a day and a half at the 2026 GM Meetings, the biggest news to drop has been ... the Dodgers claiming infielder Christian Cairo, a clever move that prevented the Mets from keeping a player they liked? Or maybe the Rangers’ willingness to talk about Corey Seager trades? Either way, it’s been a relatively quiet opening.
One agent expressed concern that this is a sign of things to come ahead of the expected Dec. 1 lockout.
And yet for many, the quiet start to the off-season doesn’t change the expectation of a very busy month. Our best reference point suggests the flurry of activity will come late in November once teams have had the chance to gather more information and the threat of a lockout pushes the action forward all at once.
Back in 2021, as the baseball industry braced for that winter’s work stoppage, the week preceding the lockout was nothing short of wild. Within a week, teams committed over $1.6 billion, an average exceeding $50 million apiece. They signed 37 different players to deals worth $5 million or more, an average of more than one contract per club.
There were franchise-altering deals for the likes of Seager ($325 million) and Marcus Semien ($175 million) plus four other contracts in excess of $100 million thanks to Javier Baez ($140 million), Max Scherzer ($130 million), Robbie Ray ($115 million) and Kevin Gausman ($110 million). There were also dozens of smaller deals for the likes of James Paxton and Kole Calhoun.
And again, that wasn’t in the month preceding the lockout – it was in the week preceding the lockout. Five years later, the only real action is happening behind the scenes.
“It’s probably moving a little bit quicker, maybe, than in some years, but not drastically,” Atkins said.
Yet as Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom pointed out, “any situation you assume is going to happen and just bet the house on that is going to be a mistake. You’ve got to be ready for a lot of different situations.”
For now, many people here at the GM Meetings expect history to repeat itself with a flurry of activity late in November. If they’re right, this is now the calm before the storm.
