TORONTO — The public post-mortem for the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays from GM Ross Atkins and president and CEO Mark Shapiro included the appropriate mea culpas, vows to study what went wrong with the offence, but little in terms of actual news.
For the time being, there are no changes to manager John Schneider’s coaching staff, with Atkins saying “in large part we feel good about the group that is here,” while leaving himself room to manoeuvre by adding that “we have to make sure that we're thorough” and “we're going to work through that process.”
So, a hedge there, but intriguingly not when, during a session with writers Wednesday, Atkins responded to a question about whether Ernie Clement will be the team’s starting second baseman next season by saying, “he's got to earn every bit of that.”
“It's not just write down, 'OK, we're covered,'” Atkins continued. “But he always has. When he's been given an opportunity, he's run with it. We're always trying to, that was in the plans last year, too, to just try to complement every player the best that we can. Ernie can be an everyday, impactful player. He can also be a player that (takes) 500 (at-bats) and plays at a really high level, and because we're such a good team, he isn't the guy that's being pencilled in every day.”
That could be as simple as more playing time for trade deadline acquisition Josh Smith, or a signal to an open market that will include pending free agents like Brandon Lowe, who offers the power the Blue Jays do desperately need, and Luis Arraez, whom they’ve pursued in the past.
The trade and free-agent markets won’t open until after the World Series ends, so there’s about a month of off-season for the Blue Jays to map out an attack plan with “understanding how we improve the pieces that are here, a significant part of our work right now,” said Atkins.
“Our pro scouting department is constantly scouting and understanding how we value the potential of acquisitions via trade or free agency,” he continued. “We will have clear priorities. But the dance matters. Understanding if we're a priority, understanding what the market is going to be and what the expectations are is so important that we're now preparing. But a lot of our energy is leaning into how do we correct the players that are here and help them develop, help them improve?”
Here’s more about what the Blue Jays had to say about following up their run to the World Series with a 79-83 season and how they intend to move forward:
Getting Guerrero right
The most impactful thing the Blue Jays can do this winter is help Vladimir Guerrero Jr. return to MVP-calibre form, and as a starting point, they sent him home with plans setting up “meeting points and who are in those meetings,” said Atkins. “We need his input,” he added. “We need to make sure that we've considered all stakeholders and as much information as possible. We've been doing that over the year, but want to consolidate it again, present our thoughts to him, download his, and then allow him some time to breathe and reconnect on that.”
In diagnosing what went wrong, Atkins described the 27-year-old as “such a dynamic athlete and hitter that it's a really complex problem” to get him right at the plate. Guerrero uses a toe-tap trigger for his swing, which times up the way he loads on his back leg and gets his hands into a launch position, but when “he lost a little bit of that rhythm and timing pretty early in the season, it started to impact his confidence,” said the GM. “And once it impacted his confidence, the in-game adjustments and in-season adjustments became very difficult.”
How much Guerrero’s various ailments this season contributed to that — he missed time with back, hamstring, forearm and concussion issues this season — is something he and the Blue Jays must figure out. Atkins doesn’t think his first baseman needs to simplify all the moving parts, rather, “I think he can get that base back,” while adding that doing so outside the pressure of living up to a $500-million, 14-year deal should help.
The impact of those expectations was magnified last week when Guerrero made clumsy comments about being paid for what he’s done rather than what he’s going to do, leading to a social media firestorm and an eventual apology.
Shapiro said his read of the situation is “more just what he was with us and how he responded to us and that his feelings were authentic and genuine. There have been players that have reacted and said similar things in the past when they've struggled and faced frustration. It's a tough stage for a 26-, 27-year-old to be on and deal with that level of pressure and anxiety. But I double down on the fact that I believe in Vlad as a player and a person, and I know how much he cares, and that's how I interpret those comments: that they weren't a reflection of how much he cares.”
The pending lockout
The collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, at which point Major League Baseball will lock out its players, with the owners’ renewed push for a salary cap the key issue.
The uncertainty around what the next structure may look like could confuse the off-season, and some expect the top tier of free agents to sign before Dec. 1, with the bottom tiers left to scramble once a new agreement is in place.
Shapiro’s approach is to “prepare under the current system, and then you adjust along the way.”
“That's what we're going to do,” he continued. “We always prepare for multiple scenarios. So we will be prepared to adjust and adapt. Any new system adopted, there will be a timeframe for adjustment into that system. That's understood. But we'll follow the lead of the commissioner's office on the details of that.”
The Blue Jays have $210 million in financial guarantees for 2027, which would make additional spending tricky if a salary cap is implemented. But Shapiro doesn’t “think any new system adopted would cause for immediate action” from a payroll-cutting standpoint.
As for where the Blue Jays sit on the cap issue, Shapiro declined to comment, saying only that “the process is being led by the commissioner's office, we certainly engage in that at the right times, but as a front office, we'll work to adapt to any system in place and be the best we can within that.”
Spending power
The Blue Jays’ 2026 payroll for Competitive Balance Tax purposes is estimated by FanGraphs’ RosterResource at a team-record $314.7 million, which is past the fourth and highest spending threshold and will produce a significant luxury tax bill.
While the game’s economic framework is uncertain, Shapiro doesn’t “anticipate there being any major fundamental change” to the club’s budget for next year. “We have not finalized that; we're still working through that. But my expectation is we'll be in a similar area of support and resources.”
Fixing the offence
The Blue Jays were ninth in the majors with 1,347 hits and had the second-fewest strikeouts at 1,149, yet produced the fewest runs at 648 because they were last in homers (152), second-last in walks (459), 25th in on-base percentage at .310 and 26th in slugging at .381.
Simplistically, in 2027 they need to walk more often and hit more homers, but how to do it isn’t straightforward, especially with the Blue Jays believing they have more internal talent than showed up this year.
Worth keeping in mind is that there are several pathways to more runs. Consider that:
• The Milwaukee Brewers hit only two more homers but were second with 832 runs by leading the majors in OBP at .341 while tying for 10th in slugging at .403.
• The New York Yankees had essentially the same OBP as the Blue Jays at .311, but were second with 223 homers.
• The Atlanta Braves had the third-fewest walks at 465, but were seventh in homers at 204 and tied for sixth in slugging at .409.
That’s why Atkins said, “I don't think we have to be elite in those categories to score a lot of runs, as we saw last year, but we've got to lean into several areas.”
“One is ensuring that our players are optimized, that are here, or at least near optimization and then complementing them the right way,” he added. “And then the last thing is how are we adjusting to the league. That's certainly part of optimization, but I think the adjustments also pertain to acquisition and deployment and overall construction.”
Like in 2024, when their offence also cratered, finishing 23rd with 671 runs, the Blue Jays still make a lot of contact, but don’t do enough with that contact. Their 87.5 m.p.h. average exit velocity and their hard-hit percentage of 34 were both last in the majors.
“The best offensive teams in baseball do it all, and then the best offensive teams in the playoffs certainly do it all and contact is a priority,” said Atkins. “That's something that we've leaned into, and we recognize that we've taken some risk there, that contact plays in the playoffs and not quite as well over the course of 162. So it’s finding the right balance to ensure we get in, against good pitching, too.”
What are Santander and Barger?
The offence might have looked different with Anthony Santander, who underwent shoulder surgery at the beginning of spring training, and Addison Barger, who missed time with ankle injuries and underwent reconstructive surgery after blowing out his elbow in his first game back.
Both should be healthy next spring, but predicting their output is complicated, as Santander will be 32 next year and missed most of last season as well, while Barger, 26, only established himself as a big-league player last year.
“They take a hit objectively and subjectively,” Atkins said of their 2027 projections. “So, relatively speaking, how you protect yourself for that or how you consider alternatives, you have to factor in that it's not quite as stable as it was a year or two years ago.”
Santander’s attempt at a late-season comeback fell short, but his “bat speed is coming back” as he continues to rehab in Dunedin and “he still has all the physical attributes, all of the mental attributes,” added Atkins. “Hopefully there's some benefit to some recovery time for his body, as well.”
DH spot open
The end of George Springer’s time with the Blue Jays means the DH spot is vacant and the Blue Jays aren’t looking for a single player to take over those at-bats.
“I don't want to eliminate that possibility,” said Atkins, “but we would like to prioritize having versatility and being able to DH multiple players, being able to move players around into positions, rest players.”
Sliding Anthony Santander into the DH role isn’t something the club wants to do.
"We want Tony to be thinking about playing the outfield and being an option for us there and having as much flexibility as possible,” said Atkins.
Pitching status
Atkins called Dylan Cease, Jose Soriano, Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce and Spencer Arrighetti “a good start” in building out a 2027 rotation, “but we'll look to add to it.”
One more starter, at minimum, makes sense as the Blue Jays will also have Bowden Francis, Jose Berrios and Jake Bloss, each working back from reconstructive elbow surgery, become options at some point. Prospects like Nolan Perry and Johnny King could become options as well, and Spencer Miles, now free of Rule 5 restrictions after spending a full season on the big-league roster, could also be a rotation candidate.
Deciding on a direction for the 26-year-old right-hander, who logged 95.2 innings in a variety of roles after only 23.1 innings the previous three years due to injury, is complicated, but Atkins said the Blue Jays will work off this year in targeting a 2027 workload.
Still, whether he starts or works out of the bullpen will “come down to what's best for him and his career,” said Atkins. “That's a difficult decision to make and we'll work through it with him.”
Lefty Ricky Tiedemann, on the other hand, is slated for the bullpen, with the Blue Jays “thinking of him as a reliever,” said Atkins. “I would love for him to somehow do something to change that. But most likely thinking about him as a reliever, could grow into some bulkier outings.”
