Blue Jays' plan for deadline is clear but future beyond that is not

TORONTO — The final round of Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s first batting practice since spraining his left knee featured five swings, four of them home runs, one a line drive off the wall only a few feet shy of making it a clean sweep. “I’ve been getting stronger while on the injured list,” he quipped to a few of his Toronto Blue Jays teammates.

Kidding aside, his on-field hitting session, preceded by a round of infield before Tuesday night’s 4-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, is the latest sign that Kiner-Falefa is trending toward a return much sooner than initially expected when he hit the injured list July 1.

The next — and final — hurdle for him to clear before he can head out on a rehab assignment is running the bases, first the basics, and then with sharper cuts, changes in direction and dives into the bag. That should start in the next day or two, and if all goes well, that would really speed up the timeline for a return.

"It’s been way faster than I expected,” Kiiner-Falefa said. “I wish I could have been playing throughout that stretch on the West Coast and just helping the team put ourselves in a better situation. At the same time, I feel like this is a good time for these young guys to learn and get better. And when I come back, I'm going to do everything I can to help everybody around me and make this team and organization better.”

In different ways, the front office is doing that right now, too, actively shopping the club’s six players on expiring contracts — headlined by Yusei Kikuchi and Yimi Garcia — ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. No surprise there, as trying to sell them off for future pieces is as clear a call as the Blue Jays, now 45-55, will have before them for the foreseeable future.

Far less defined is what they do this off-season and then again after the 2025 season, when franchise cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who hit his 17th homer of the season Tuesday, and Bo Bichette, among others, become eligible for free agency.

For now, the Blue Jays intend to keep their players with one-plus year of service time and build around them for another go at the post-season in 2025, before the larger decisions loom. If a buying team determined to seize the moment wants to stretch, the Blue Jays will certainly listen, but they’re not soliciting offers on those players and would need to be overwhelmed to trade from that pool.

How likely that is makes for an interesting question.

For instance, Guerrero and Bichette, even with the latter on the injured list for an extended period, offer the type of game-changing impact scarcely available this deadline period. Perhaps the lack of inventory prompts a team to try and force the Blue Jays’ hand.

At the same time, it’s hard to imagine an offer coming around that buys them out of their plans for next year.

The same is likely to apply this off-season, when the Blue Jays will have a better sense of what they have in-house by essentially auditioning certain players over the final two months of the season while also assessing the returns from their deadline acquisitions.

They’ll then be able to take that info, pair it with what they can accomplish in the winter market and then chart a course for 2025, with the potential to either lean in or strip back at next year’s deadline.

Hence, the approach to this deadline is the only clearly defined window upcoming for the Blue Jays, who aren’t wrestling with the stay-in-bow-out, 21-per-cent-playoff-probability dilemma the Rays (51-50) are facing. 

They pulled over .500 by grinding Jose Berrios for 97 pitches over 4.2 innings, scratching out a run on Josh Lowe’s RBI single in the second and upping their lead to 3-0 in the fifth on Brandon Lowe’s two-run shot. 

Berrios uncharacteristically walked six, matching a career-high set in 2018, during his outing while striking out five and allowing only three hits, extending a recent rough patch in which he’s posted a 6.69 ERA in his last seven starts. That came after he posted a 2.93 ERA through his first 14 starts.

The difference?

“It’s a good question,” Berrios replied. “Like, honestly, I've been trying so hard be the same Jose I was in the beginning of the season. I was trying to watch video, started doing the same routine with my recovery stuff, in the weight room, playing catch, in the bullpen. That's how life is in baseball. One thing I know is I have to keep making adjustments and I will do it.”

Back-to-back homers from Guerrero and Justin Turner off Manuel Rodriguez in the sixth pulled the Blue Jays back into the contest, but the Rays eked out another run in the seventh on Isaac Paredes’ double-play groundout and locked it down from there.

What the Rays do in this market might create some fall-out for the Blue Jays, as they could refresh their position-play base by trading Randy Arozarena, throwing a dynamic offensive player into the mix. At the same time, the need for offence is such that the progress made by Kiner-Falefa, who is under contract for one more year beyond this one, bears watching.

Before he was injured, he’d produced 3.1 wins of value, as calculated by Baseball Reference, and with his positional versatility he could potentially fit any number of teams. But, again, indications are the price would have to be really right for the Blue Jays to go deeper than their players on expiring contracts during this deadline.

That will all play out off the field over the next week, while the daily grind of playing games continues on it.

To that end, the work continues for Kiner-Falefa.

“I'm coming along really well, day-by-day, trying to not rush it back, be smart,” he said. “I want to come back and contribute, play right into the flow. I don't want to have days (off) and whatnot. Our medical staff and strength coaches have done a great job of helping me speed the process up. … I could be back sooner than later.”

The sooner the better for the Blue Jays.