DALLAS – Two AL East teams made the playoffs last year, but you could make a case that it's actually the Red Sox and Rays who have the best rosters at this moment, not the Yankees and Orioles.
The departures of free agents Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes have weakened New York and Baltimore, respectively, while Boston has four of the game’s top prospects nearing the majors and Tampa Bay has Shane McClanahan coming back and Danny Jansen in place to catch.
Regardless of how you rank those teams, it’s a tough division – likely the deepest in baseball. For the Blue Jays, that’s nothing new, but what’s different this year is the urgency with which at least four of those teams appear to be pursuing top players – and in many cases, the same ones.
The competition was most apparent when the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays all pursued Juan Soto before he signed a $765 million deal with the Mets. His departure from the AL East prevented anyone from gaining major ground on the others, but that same trio of teams continues competing for top players at the Winter Meetings.
Max Fried, the 30-year-old left-hander who posted a 3.25 ERA in 29 starts with Atlanta in 2024, is nearing a decision and likely to sign this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Tuesday. The Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees have all been pursuing Fried, and all three have been linked to Burnes, too.
Even the Orioles are considering frontline starters, though a reunion with Burnes may be more likely than a deal with Fried.
“We're in on everybody,” GM Mike Elias told reporters at the Winter Meetings Monday.
All of this competition creates an ideal environment for agents, who can turn urgency from teams into guaranteed dollars for their clients. As for the Blue Jays, they’re certainly aware of the competition within the AL East, but GM Ross Atkins says he’d be motivated to improve Toronto's roster regardless of what his rivals are doing.
“I certainly am aware of their goals, their resources,” Atkins said Monday afternoon. “Just like you are, we're listening and watching. Our urgency is always the same. So it's hard to take it up. When you're competing, you don't all of a sudden just become more urgent when you're as urgent as you can possibly be.”
Some industry observers have suggested Fried may be the Blue Jays' top target despite a projected price tag $156 million over six years from by MLB Trade Rumors. In a market that's been favourable to pitchers, that price may be closer to $200 million, which would represent the biggest contract in the history of the Blue Jays if completed and likely push the Blue Jays' payroll past the $241 million competitive balance tax for 2025.
That's a big 'if' for now, but a pursuit of Fried makes sense since the Blue Jays are determined to compete in 2025 following a 74-88 season.
Already, the Orioles added Canadian Tyler O’Neill on a three-year deal while signing Gary Sanchez to be their backup catcher. One way or another, the Yankees are expected to spend big this winter. And the Red Sox seem likely to add a starting pitcher, whether via free agency or by completing a trade for someone like Garrett Crochet, the White Sox left-hander they’re now pursuing, according to sources.
“I don't want to speak for other organizations, but there are a couple of teams that are seemingly increasing that level of commitment in terms of dollars spent and maybe trading away players as well,” Atkins said.
Beyond Fried and Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez (Red Sox, Blue Jays), Anthony Santander (Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays) and Alex Bregman (Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays) each have multiple suitors within the division. That's before you get to back-end starters and relievers, who tend to have interest from all over the league.
Another big-league executive noted that the Blue Jays cost themselves valuable chances by missing the playoffs on the final day of the 2021 season and getting swept in the wild-card round in 2022 and 2023.
“They had a shot in there when the Red Sox weren’t great and the Orioles were still building up,” one rival executive said. “Now it’s really tough.”
While there’s no doubt that’s true, the Blue Jays are no strangers to the reality of competing in this division and, at times, they’ve overcome that challenge. It won’t be easy given the needs up and down their roster, but to win on the field in 2025 the Blue Jays will likely have to outmaneuver their division rivals in the boardroom first.
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