Blue Jays roundtable: What does 2025 hold for Guerrero Jr., front office?

After a last-place finish in 2024, the stakes are high for this edition of the Blue Jays.

The front office added the likes of Max Scherzer, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander and Andres Gimenez over the winter with the hope of balancing a roster that underwhelmed a year ago. If enough things go well, there appears to be playoff potential for a team that’s seeking its first post-season win since 2016.

At the same time, the AL East remains one of the toughest divisions in baseball and this roster is by no means perfect. A poor season would lead to some tough buy or sell decisions this summer, by which point Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette will be just a couple of months away from free agency.

There’s a lot on the line here, both on and off the field. With Opening Day finally upon us, we turn to our MLB writers for their thoughts on the 2025 roster, what’s ahead for Guerrero Jr. and the future direction of this franchise. Here are their thoughts:

Blue Jays roundtable 2025

Setting aside the big-picture questions about this team for a moment, is this roster good enough to make the playoffs? 

Shi Davidi: The weird juxtaposition of 2025 is that it could be a pretty decent year for the Blue Jays, even as the potential void of 2026 looms. There are a lot of ifs for this team, more than a comfortable playoff team should have, but given the spate of injuries within the division, the balance around the AL (only one team projects at fewer than 76 wins in the league: the White Sox), and their relative health thus far, they should be able to hang in the race, at least.

Jeff Blair: ​​Sure, but it’s an older team that’s going to need the help of others through injury. Tough to believe with payroll at this level, but that’s where we are. Gerrit Cole’s injury was the best news of the spring.

Arden Zwelling: If the pitching staff remains healthy, sure. But if too many of Toronto’s veteran starters or leverage relievers hit speed bumps — as Max Scherzer and Erik Swanson already have — the club’s pitching depth doesn’t look strong enough to withstand those blows.

David Singh: Yes, with an asterisk. I still think they need another big bat to lengthen the lineup, but the major injuries suffered by other AL East clubs have at least opened the door for the Blue Jays.

Ben Nicholson-Smith: Really hate to start this roundtable on a sour note, but I’ve gotta be honest here. The Blue Jays are a solid team, much improved. And they definitely could make the playoffs. So much about this sport is unpredictable, and I won’t be shocked if they win 91 games or 77 games. But that’s a hedge. To answer the question more directly, I honestly can’t say that there’s enough starting pitching depth here to safely call the Blue Jays a playoff team. I’d guess it’s more like 84-78.

Beyond established stars, whose performance are you most intrigued by for the 2025 season?

Arden Zwelling: I’m interested to see how accurate Will Wagner’s eye-catching projections end up being. ZIPS sees him as a 115 wRC+ hitter in the majors; Steamer has him at 120. If he can provide that level of production, it would be a massive boon for the Blue Jays lineup.

Shi Davidi: Alan Roden and Will Wagner. Roden’s inclusion on the opening-day roster sent a powerful message internally that the Blue Jays were going with a merit-based roster rather than letting asset and service-time management rule the day. If his on-base, high-and-hard contact game translates, he’ll give the Blue Jays more of the type of left-handed hitter they’ve long sought along with someone who, eventually, could profile as a leadoff option. Wagner, who is a bit more tested with a less defined defensive home, is in a similar mould. Of all the young players the Blue Jays acquired at the deadline last summer to see time in the majors, some around the club felt he was the surest best to contribute.

Ben Nicholson-Smith: Probably Arjun Nimmala, who offers as much upside as anyone in the farm system. But if we’re talking about major-leaguers, I’ll say Alan Roden, whose advanced plate approach should help him hold his own at the highest level.

David Singh: Daulton Varsho has really taken to new hitting coach David Popkins and the results have been there at the plate this spring. I’m interested to see how that translates into the regular season.

Jeff Blair: Are we calling Jeff Hoffman an established star? Because having him handle the ninth excites the hell out of me. Beyond that, I’m interested in what the fuss is about Will Wagner.

As of now, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s slated to hit free agency in November. How do you see things unfolding here?

Shi Davidi: Part of me wonders if the Blue Jays viewed midnight March 26 as the real deadline on Guerrero all along and the fact that he left the door open after talks ended without a deal Feb. 18 perhaps ties into that. Right now, it’s a will they or won’t they for the club. Guerrero has set his price and it’s up to the front office to buy him out of free agency. If he goes off this season, the Blue Jays could still in theory try to strike a deal before he hits the market, but by then his price is sure to be higher, too. His ask won’t be static. Some thought Aaron Judge was crazy for turning down a $213.5-million, seven-year extension offer from the Yankees ahead of his walk year only to get a $360-million, nine-year deal with them as a free agent, earning himself an extra 68 per cent. Guerrero may not earn himself an extra 68 per cent of what’s already on the table, but we’ve seen clubs act really aggressively when young talent of his calibre hits the open market, and who knows where the bidding goes if he gets there.

Ben Nicholson-Smith: Best guess: a late push for an extension sputters ahead of Opening Day; Guerrero Jr. puts together a monster season; he and the Blue Jays both say the right things about being open to a return in free agency; rumours fly next off-season; and, like most free agents, he goes to the highest bidder.

Jeff Blair: The deadline is and has been a canard from the start. The Blue Jays were always going to take one more run at signing Vladdy, even before Mark Shapiro’s recent attempt to calm the waters. As Shapiro said last week: the reason the Blue Jays lost out on their recent high-profile pursuits was largely because of geography, not money. So … do they essentially say to Vladdy in the winter, “Bring us your best offer and we’ll see if we can exceed it?” The bottom line at this point is it will take $500 million-$550 million to get this done in-season — however it’s configured — and likely north of $600 million in the off-season. The big question is whether the sides can keep away from each others' throats until it’s resolved. Vladdy needs to temper the stream of consciousness. We get it.

David Singh: Based on Mark Shapiro’s recent optimistic comments, I’m going to say Guerrero Jr. re-signs with the club at some point.

Arden Zwelling: I see Guerrero going to free agency and testing the strength of his market. His camp and the Blue Jays clearly aren’t aligned on his value. The rest of the league can help settle that debate, and the Blue Jays can opt to pay the market rate or move on.

What’s ahead for the leaders of this team: Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins and John Schneider? 

Jeff Blair: I’ve given up predicting Atkins’ future because there are other organizations that would have fired him long ago. Fool me once, etc. As for Shapiro? He’s talking like somebody who expects to be here beyond 2025.

Arden Zwelling: Mark Shapiro isn’t going anywhere. John Schneider shouldn’t be going anywhere. Ross Atkins probably isn’t going anywhere, but could shift into a different role if this season goes awry.

Shi Davidi: Heading into the 10th season under the current regime, this is setting up to be a massive referendum on the club’s leadership. Unless he’s been quietly extended, Shapiro’s contract is up at the end of the season, although the Alejandro Kirk extension and substantial offer tabled to Guerrero indicate that he still retains a substantial degree of confidence with ownership. Atkins may be on thinner ice — there was a belief he was in serious trouble last summer before sentiments began to shift after the trade deadline — and if things go awry again, something needs to change, even though his contract runs through 2026. Schneider, whose contract expires after this season although the club holds an option for 2026, could be seen as an easy out if the team starts slowly unless the Blue Jays cement his status by, at minimum, picking up his option, something they did for Charlie Montoyo in 2022 before firing him mid-season. The Blue Jays believe in Schneider far more than they did in Montoyo and securing his future is, on several levels, the right thing to do.

Ben Nicholson-Smith: After a decade in Toronto, Ross Atkins has made some great moves and some clunkers. We could run through the whole list but let’s save that for another day because whatever anyone thinks about the work he has done, it’s clear he has a strong supporter in Mark Shapiro and that’s arguably the opinion that counts most here.

At the same time, this was a last-place team in 2024 and the Jays farm system ranks in the game’s bottom third, according the Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, so Atkins need to flip the momentum here. A strong season could lead to an extension, yet if the Blue Jays fall out of contention early, it stands to reason the organization will consider some sort of restructuring by September. As for Shapiro and John Schneider, I’d expect they’re back this time next year. But that’s all a guess. The next six months will determine a lot.

David Singh: The golden question, one that could be influenced by on-field success. Let’s revisit in July, when we’ll have a greater sense of how the Blue Jays fared.

2025 will be a success if the Blue Jays … 

David Singh: Go on a deep playoff run. A single post-season win has been elusive for this group, but given the stakes, even that won’t cut it this year.

Arden Zwelling: Reach the post-season and win a series. Have three-to-five minor-league pitchers take considerable strides and become legitimate major-league options for 2026. Re-sign one of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette in free agency.

Shi Davidi: The Blue Jays can veer their core from the looming contractual-control abyss and find their way back into the post-season.

Jeff Blair: It seems pretty clear that simply making the playoffs in some form has been this organization's annual goal since Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins took over. I don’t see that changing.

Ben Nicholson-Smith: The goal should be to win championships, let’s not lose sight of that. Now, realistically, is it fair to say it’s World Series-or-bust after an 88-loss season? Probably not. So let’s say this: if the Blue Jays win the AL East for the first time since 2015 or win a playoff series for the first time since 2016, that would be a clear success for the organization.