Blue Jays Roundtable: What does success look like in 2024?

To say that the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays are facing a pivotal season would be putting it mildly. After being swept by the Minnesota Twins in last year’s playoffs, the Blue Jays aimed high in free agency only to end up with a team that — while certainly competitive — looks awfully similar to last year’s roster, a group that underwhelmed for much of the year.

With a new season approaching, it’s time to put the good and bad from the 2023 season behind us, but what should we expect from this year’s edition of the Blue Jays? Can their pitching staff repeat last year’s success? Can the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer and Daulton Varsho bounce back at the plate? What about newcomers including Yariel Rodriguez, Justin Turner and — eventually — Joey Votto?

For some answers to those questions and more, we turn things over to our baseball writers on the eve of Opening Day, 2024:

Jeff Blair
George Springer has escaped a lot of criticism and it worries me that 2023, one of his healthiest seasons, was also one of his worst. But I seem to be alone. I’ll bet Vernon Wells wishes he’d received the free pass that Springer gets.

David Singh
George Springer turns 35 this year and is coming off his worst season in years, at least from a WAR perspective. What if he doesn't rebound and continues to trend downward?

Shi Davidi
Where is the next core of this team going to come from? The upper-level depth of the farm system gets talked about often — as long as he’s healthy Ricky Tiedemann will factor in at some point this year and so too might Orelvis Martinez and his raw power at second base — and they’ll help. But the Blue Jays have seven players eligible for free agency this fall and 10 more after 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Jordan Romano chief among them. Barring some sudden surprises, and they happen, this doesn’t look like a farm system ready to replace all that talent, or that’s deep enough to trade from to acquire new core pieces, and money alone can’t plug that many holes.

Arden Zwelling
Drafting and developing. The Blue Jays are positioned to shed a lot of talent over the next couple of seasons, both via veterans aging out and younger players qualifying for free agency. It’s going to be exceedingly difficult for the organization to compensate for that if it doesn’t start producing more impactful big-leaguers from within.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
The questions on the pitching staff are pretty obvious, and we’ll all be watching the offence closely too. One thing that snuck up on them last year was their awful baserunning, though. Selective aggression is a good thing, but this team was third-last in baseball in stolen base success rate last year while also making more outs on the bases than all but four teams. When I look ahead at 2024, that’s one area that has to improve.

Arden Zwelling
George Springer. His 104 wRC+ in 2023 simply wasn’t enough from a player who led the team in plate appearances. Outfielders entering their mid-30s aren’t typically great bets for prolific seasons. But the Blue Jays could really use one from Springer.

Jeff Blair
I've said I thought Bo Bichette will win multiple batting titles in his career. The first one will come in 2024.

David Singh
Has to be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This team will go as far as he takes them.

Shi Davidi
No need to complicate this one — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Everyone has been waiting for a follow-up season to his monster 2021 and the Blue Jays are definitely betting on it arriving this year. His swing looked great during spring training and he’s clearly in a good spot physically, so the ingredients are there for some MVP-calibre production.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
Yeah, it’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Not only does he have legitimate 40-homer upside, he just turned 25 years old. That makes him younger than Heston Kjerstad, the outfield prospect who’s considered part of the Orioles' bright future. But where many 25-year-olds are just breaking in, Guerrero Jr. is just two seasons away from hitting free agency, adding to the stakes for 2024.

It was nine years ago that the Blue Jays first signed Guerrero Jr. We’ve been building up to this point for a while now, and it’s time to see what he can offer as the pressure builds. Based on the conversations I had this spring, few around the game will be surprised if he puts together a monster year.

Arden Zwelling
Are Bowden Francis and Ricky Tiedemann considered off the radar? If either throws 100 or more big-league innings, they could give you those two wins.

David Singh
I've believed in Bowden Francis since he joined the club last season and dominated out of the bullpen. Sure, it was mostly low-leverage, but this spring he's taken another step forward and forced his way into the rotation. I expect him to grab the reins on his spot there and not let go.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
The clear pick here is Bowden Francis, and he does have that kind of upside, but I’ll add Joey Votto into the mix, too. If Albert Pujols can hit 24 home runs and post a 151 OPS+ at age 42, can Votto hit 15 home runs and post a 120 OPS+ at age 40? If healthy, I think he can.

Shi Davidi
Chad Green and Yimi Garcia immediately came to mind as a couple of guys lost a bit amid the focus on Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson and Tim Mayza, but it’s really hard for relievers to produce that much WAR. So instead, let’s look at Cavan Biggio. This is a little volatile because a right shoulder issue derailed his off-season and left him with a staggered spring buildup, but the player he was May 23 onwards, after he made some changes to his swing, produced a .266/.378/.407 hitter in 270 plate appearances. If the swing changes and his shoulder holds up, that type of contribution from a left-handed hitter will play much bigger than expected.

Jeff Blair
Don’t know about 2.0 WAR or if he’s complimentary, but I have a sneaking feeling Ricky Tiedemann is going to be tossing some significant innings in the majors in 2024. As far as someone on the roster right now? I think we’ll see Genesis Cabrera do more heavy lifting than expected. Not sure that’s a good thing, but...

Ben Nicholson-Smith
Don’t advance past the wild-card series. Look, I know baseball playoffs are largely random and it’s maybe a touch dramatic to say there’s no possibility of a good season if they don’t advance, but ask the players. Ask the fans. No one would be happy with another easy exit, nor should they be. The goal is to build a team deep and talented enough to win in October, not shrug your shoulders and say 'well, those are the breaks.' The Blue Jays have much of what they need already, and should be prepared to add an elite reliever or a right-handed bat as needed at the deadline.

Shi Davidi
Aren’t in the post-season. There is, objectively, a lot of talent on this team and a deep pitching staff. One rival executive said to me a few days ago that the Blue Jays were his pick to win the AL East. Another told me their projections had the Blue Jays second to the Rays in the division. But you can also see the window starting to close on this group, making each opportunity especially precious.

David Singh
Don't advance deep into the post-season. It's not good enough to just win a game, or even a round. The window is getting smaller for this team.

Arden Zwelling
Don’t keep their best players healthy and productive; don’t reach a divisional series; don’t produce two or three above-average big-leaguers from within the organization.

Jeff Blair
If this team doesn’t win a playoff series. Who or where or how doesn’t matter. That’s it. That’s all.

Jeff Blair

Win a playoff series — which likely means Guerrero, Jr., hits 40 bombs and four pitchers make at least 30 starts.

Shi Davidi
They win a series or two in the post-season and play to their potential in October, avoiding the type of calamity that befell them the past two falls. There’s something to the playoffs being a crapshoot and its small sample-size randomness, but the Astros also find ways to consistently factor in every year. Executing in the moment the way they seem to do is the next step for the Blue Jays and the results then will be what they’ll be.

David Singh
Enjoy a long playoff run. Sure, every team wants to capture the World Series but for this team, advancing past a few post-season rounds will help everyone in the organization breathe a little easier.

Arden Zwelling
Opposite of above. Keep their best players healthy and productive; reach a divisional series; produce two or three above-average big-leaguers from within.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
Reach the ALCS. Again, I know this sounds super simplistic, but there are so few scenarios where the Blue Jays make it that far and the organizational positives don’t outweigh the negatives.