Blue Jays' Shapiro sends message with optimistic comments on Guerrero deal

DUNEDIN, Fla. — No conspiracy theories here, but Mark Shapiro is always thoughtful and deliberate about what he says publicly and the message that his words deliver.

As such, he doesn’t raise the expectations of Toronto Blue Jays fans lightly, which is what made the “optimism” he expressed about extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and the bold proclamation that “I think we're going to sign him, I think we're going to extend him,” so notable during an hour-long discussion with media Thursday.

The club president and CEO doesn’t freestyle when the recorders are on, and he’s far too disciplined to suddenly veer off script, meaning his intent was for the various stakeholders to believe the pending free agent isn’t going anywhere.

Why would he do that if the matter is in doubt — and it still is, certainly — is the question, especially since before the Feb. 18 negotiating deadline, Guerrero gave the Blue Jays a number — $500 million in present value — that gets a deal done.

If Shapiro really wants a deal, one is sitting right there waiting for a yes, even if he insists it’s “an oversimplification based upon only part of the information” to say that the sides are only roughly $50 million apart on a contract running 14 years.

That they haven’t bridged the gap yet, when “we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome,” is an indication they are dug in. Suggesting that “sometimes free agency provides the clearest answer” on the “sweet spot of sharing risk” — a factor relevant during talks on early-career extensions, not when buying walk-year players out of the open market — isn’t demonstrative of someone about to break the deadlock.

And again, this doesn’t need to be complicated.

The risk that Guerrero reaches free agency, that other teams get involved and complicate matters for the Blue Jays can all be avoided since the Blue Jays can Nike the situation and just do it.

What’s the hold up in getting this done, then?

“I just think it's between now and free agency — there are a bunch of different junctures in there,” said Shapiro. “But what you're ultimately trying to do in every one of these circumstances is understand that there's risk for the club side that we're giving up, on dips in performance, inconsistency in performance, player health, and the player is giving up some unknown potential upside in the free-agent market.

"What you're trying to do is kind of determine for each side where the comfort level (is) and hope that they overlap. You're using all the information you have. That information evolves over time. The ultimate evolution of that information is when it's all perfectly clear in free agency.”

Sure, no debate there, but if that’s the tiebreaker Shapiro is waiting for, then the bet being made is that the Blue Jays will be high bid on Guerrero next off-season.

Maybe that’s true, and the failed runs at free agents Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto have shown they can at least spend to the levels needed for top talent, although closing on them is another matter.

But this is turning into a wild game of chicken the Blue Jays are playing with their franchise cornerstone, daring him to go to free agency and beat their offer, and that Guerrero is playing back, daring the team to let him reach the open market.

For that reason, the dribs and drabs of info leaking out over the past couple of weeks — the Blue Jays offer, the Guerrero ask, etc. — sure feels like a coded negotiation, each side fighting for some leverage over the other.

In a brief interview after the Blue Jays’ 4-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, Guerrero said he planned to “keep working very hard and be optimistic, too,” and that, “I'm not going to shut the door on them, I'm open, I’ll be open. But I'm going to leave that to my agents to work with that.”

“I’m going to stay focused on what I have to do,” he added, in comments interpreted by Hector Lebron. “I will say we haven't sat down and gotten something maybe the way I want it, in that aspect. But we're going to continue to talk about it, I guess, and hopefully, we’ll get something.”

What follows next is up to the Blue Jays, and if you are down with conspiracy theories, slow-playing an extension until, say, Wednesday, with a splashy news conference ahead of Opening Day sure seems like a good way to inject some enthusiasm into the new season.

Still, Shapiro’s optimism can also certainly be viewed as a signal that the Blue Jays feel good about their offer, while also calming angst-filled fans and sponsors at a time when the club’s entire competitive window is facing collapse.

Shapiro conceded there’s been “a little bit of a dip” in ticket sales since last year but added that the Blue Jays are still projecting an attendance of around 2.7 million, similar to the 2.68 million they drew in 2024. The premium clubs are sold out with a wait list, he said, and the new 328 Club in the right-field corner is selling well, per the club.

That’s vital for the business, but what happens next year if Guerrero and Bo Bichette, the club’s other pending free-agent cornerstone, move on? Shapiro’s contract is also up — he refused to discuss his own status — which clouds the team’s longer-term strategy.

Strategies, of course, aren’t necessary when decisions are easy and obvious, but essential when one set of costs and consequences must be chosen over another set of costs and consequences.

Hence, the longer the Blue Jays are unsettled with Guerrero, the longer they delay selecting a path for the future.

Asked about what the plan for 2026 and beyond looks like, Shapiro replied, “We have to know how this year goes before I can answer that.”

“It's just too hard to answer that, on multiple levels in multiple ways,” he continued. “We obviously have a lot of forward planning that goes on. It happens in real time. It doesn't lock in. And I would be disingenuous not to acknowledge that this is kind of a pivotal year that represents an inflection point for us, just due to the expiration of contracts and the aging of certain players on our team. I think it's dependent upon where our farm system is at the end of the year. I'm confident that there's some real progress being made and some upticks in that area.”

A legitimate uptick in the club’s internal pipeline is essential for the Blue Jays to sustain themselves and avoid a period of correction.

At the beginning of Shapiro’s tenure, when the Jose Bautista/Edwin Encarnacion/Josh Donaldson core was coming to an end in 2017-18, there was a future of Guerrero/Bichette/Teoscar Hernandez/Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Cavan Biggio developing in the wings, minimizing the bottoming-out period.

Right now, there doesn’t appear to be a similar high-upside wave on the horizon, although on-the-cusp outfielder Alan Roden and 19-year-old shortstop Arjun Nimmala may eventually change that.

Shapiro pointed to three groups in the farm system in arguing that the Blue Jays are in a much better spot now than a year ago:

• The first is made up of homegrown players highlighted by Roden, Nimmala, shortstop Josh Kasevich and starters Trey Yesavage and Kendry Rojas “that have taken massive strides and continue to do so.”

• The second consists of the players acquired in trades at the deadline last year, led by starter Jake Bloss, infielder Will Wagner, outfielder Joey Loperfido and “numerous others that are going to fill some role, anything from everyday core players to utility players, that are going to help us win.”

• The third features Alek Manoah and pitching prospects Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera and Landen Maroudis, “four power arms that going to drop back in our system throughout this year.”

“Part of prospects is bulk — you've got to have the numbers,” Shapiro added later. “But I think there are guys there that have shown the ability to help us in some way, without a doubt. We're going to be in a good spot to better define that at the end of the year, as well.”

Their trajectory will follow its own natural course, but waiting and seeing with the rest of the roster, to a certain extent, is a choice. Especially with Guerrero, with whom there seems to be enough common ground to reach a deal, even as they struggle to find one another upon it.