Blue Jays experience double-edged sword of thin margins vs. Red Sox

TORONTO – It’s uncanny, really, how often these Toronto Blue Jays end up in close games and as a result, the details always get magnified when the result doesn’t break right. Hence, it’s always better to evaluate process rather than outcome, because good decisions can backfire and bad decisions can work out. Bottom line – consistently make fundamentally sound calls and in the aggregate, you’ll end up ahead.

There wasn’t much to nitpick in their doubleheader opener Friday, when they jumped out to leads of 3-0, 5-2 and 8-4 and held on for an 8-7 victory over the Boston Red Sox. But down a run in the sixth inning of the nightcap, manager Charlie Montoyo’s decision to let Derek Fisher hit with the bases loaded and two out when Vladimir Guerrero Jr., was on the bench certainly raised some questions.

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Like, why not let the young slugger face righty Robinson Leyer with an opportunity to deliver a decisive blow? Sure, Fisher is a lefty, but at 3-for-18 with four walks this year heading into that at-bat, platoon advantage can’t be enough to make him preferable to a franchise cornerstone in that spot. And saving Guerrero for the team’s final at-bat when the same opportunity isn’t sure to be there doesn’t seem like the right play, either, regardless of outcome.

Fisher struck out on four pitches to end the sixth while Guerrero batted for Reese McGuire during the team’s final at-bat in the seventh, following Travis Shaw’s infield single by rolling into a 5-4-3 double play off closer Matt Barnes. Cavan Biggio then struck out to seal a 3-2 loss in the club’s 19th one-run game this season, the Blue Jays splitting a long day at Fenway Park.

“Fisher was a good matchup,” Montoyo said of the decision. “We thought he had a chance to hit that guy, that’s why we left him to hit. That’s the main reason. We were talking before the game, he’s got a chance to hit a home run today. We had that feeling. He just didn’t do it. I was hoping Vladdy would walk it off (in the seventh) and it didn’t happen. He hit a double-play ball. That’s how it goes.”

The decision came after Ross Stripling allowed three runs in 4.1 solid innings in his Blue Jays debut, although the third run is unjustly on his account. He left with two on and one out in the fifth, and after Sean Reid-Foley issued a walk that loaded the bases, McGuire needlessly tried a back-pick at second base from his knees, his throw tailing into centre field.

That allowed Yairo Munoz to score and make it 3-1, providing the eventual margin of victory.

“That just wasn’t a good throw and it wasn’t good timing to throw to second with a man at third base,” said Montoyo. “That was the play of the game.”

Still, Jonathan Villar’s two-out RBI single in the sixth pulled the Blue Jays within one before Lourdes Gurriel Jr., walked to load the bases and set the stage for the critical Fisher at-bat.

The outfielder swung at a low slider on the first pitch, took another slider for a ball, watched a middle-middle slider for strike two, and then swung through a borderline fastball at the top of the zone to end the inning.

Guerrero, one of the guys you want hitting in that spot, would surely have produced a better at-bat than that. So too would have Joe Panik, who also offered a platoon advantage if that was the priority, and has been having strong, tenacious plate appearances of late.

Is there a data set out there that wouldn’t have identified that?

Regardless, the loss dropped the Blue Jays (21-17) to 11-8 in one-run games, while they’re also 2-5 in two-run games, underlining how often they’ve played in high leverage so far.

“Maybe with the ’18 Brewers, we played a lot of close games down the stretch in September when it was win every single day, but I mean, it doesn’t matter if we score two runs or if we score 10 runs, it seems like it’s a one-run game,” Shaw said. “Ninth inning, seventh inning, whatever it is, it seems like it’s coming down to the last at-bat, and yeah, it would be nice to have a breather one way or the other. But we have not been doing that so far.

“It’s getting everybody a lot of experience in high-leverage situations which can only benefit you down the stretch and in the playoffs. Hopefully one of these days we’ll be able to blow one out and take an easy win.”

Working toward that by solidifying the fundamentals was the focus of an early afternoon meeting, as Blue Jays gathered their position players to discuss an area of concern that’s come up all too often this season, especially this week – the club’s baserunning.

Montoyo summed up his message like this: Be aggressive, just be smart.

“Sometimes you don’t want to make mistakes and now you stop being aggressive and you could have been at third base on a base hit to right-centre but you stay there (at second) because you’re afraid to get thrown out,” he continued. “Just be smart. See where their guys are playing. Stay aggressive. But be smart.”

More discipline on the basepaths and a lot more production at the plate made baserunning moot in the first game, as a trio of Blue Jays who’d been cool recently at the plate did the heavy lifting.

Shaw, in a 6-for-41 rut with a .417 OPS in his previous 14 games, delivered three hits, including a homer in the second that opened the scoring.

Danny Jansen, riding an 0-for-10 slide and a 4-for-39 this season, delivered a two-run homer later in the frame, while Randal Grichuk broke out of an 0-for-18 slump with a pair of hits, including a two-run single in the sixth that opened up an 8-4 lead.

“We’ve just been a little bit sloppy, that’s basically all I’m going to say,” Shaw said of the meeting earlier in the day. “The past few days we’ve been a little bit sloppy, reckless a little bit, and just reiterated to make sure your focus is on the basepaths is all the meeting was about. We don’t want to take the aggressiveness away from the team, but just be a little bit more cognizant of the situation and don’t be as reckless.”

Tanner Roark had another uneven outing, dominating at times with six strikeouts but ultimately couldn’t get through five, leaving after surrendering a pair that cut the Blue Jays lead to 5-4, with two on and one out. Julian Merryweather took over and got Xander Bogaerts on a lazy liner to right field before striking out J.D. Martinez to maintain the lead.

That appeared pivotal when the Blue Jays tacked on three more in the sixth but Merryweather got touched up in the bottom half, as Munoz, who had three hits and three RBIs, doubled in a run before an RBI single from Michael Chavis and a run-scoring groundout for Jose Peraza.

A.J. Cole limited the damage there, setting the stage for Anthony Bass to collect his fifth save.

The Blue Jays now have some interesting decisions coming.

With six starters in the rotation, they’ll have to decide whether Roark or Stripling, who showed flashes of his strong past performances, will take the ball for Wednesday’s series finale against the New York Yankees. Montoyo said he expects Stripling to get another start, while Robbie Ray is likely to start Sunday’s finale after Merryweather worked an inning-plus Friday.

“I’m happy,” Stripling said of his outing. “The curveball wasn’t great, that’s definitely my best off-speed pitch, so whenever it’s not good it’s going to be a little bit of a battle for me. Something that’s encouraging is that I kept the ball in the yard for the first time. That’s a win. I’d given up a homer in every start so kept the ball in the yard today, maybe because of the usage of my off-speed stuff was up. That usually gets me more groundballs so encouraged by that, build off that and just keep going.”

Reinforcements are on the way, too, as shortstop Bo Bichette will face closer Ken Giles in a simulated game Saturday.

Bichette “is doing a lot better than we thought he was going to be at this time,” said Montoyo, and while he wouldn’t speculate on timing, his return appears to be on the horizon.

Assuming all goes well, the Blue Jays may set up another sim game versus a taxi squad pitcher like Jacob Waguespack or Patrick Murphy on Sunday and then consider some extra work for him in Rochester.

Giles, meanwhile, could be ready to return after his second live batting practice, although that assessment will only come afterwards. He could, in theory, get a third session but could also be activated for next week’s clash with the Yankees.

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