TORONTO — Considering the hope that surrounded Vladimir Guerrero Jr. when he debuted in 2019, to be here right now is pretty crushing.
An organization that had a chance to build a powerhouse team around Guerrero Jr. hasn’t won a single playoff game with him. And after being unable to complete an extension with their franchise player, he now plans to test free agency this fall.
Extending him would have meant committing to one of the biggest contracts in MLB history, perhaps even $500 million, but this is still a huge missed opportunity for the Blue Jays, a franchise that now lacks direction beyond the coming season.
“There’s no such thing as close or not close,” said team president and CEO Mark Shapiro, whose contract is also up after 2025. “It’s either done or not done.”
On that point, there’s no debate. And in this case, "done" could have benefitted everyone involved and "not done" leaves the Blue Jays in a perilous position. The best hitter they’ve developed in decades will hit the open market at age 26, and although a return to Toronto is still technically possible, there will be aggressive competition for his services.
That’s because hitters this talented are rare — Guerrero Jr. combines elite bat-to-ball skills with advanced knowledge of the strike zone and some of the best raw power on the planet — and free agents this young are even more rare. Though he's now entering his seventh big-league season, he’s all of 25 years old. His best years and biggest moments are likely ahead of him.
That scarcity should have motivated the Blue Jays to get a deal done here, and while they continue to say they want Guerrero Jr., it’s actions that count most.
“They had their numbers,” Guerrero Jr. said through an interpreter. “I had my number.”
Zooming out beyond the Blue Jays for a moment, which players are likely to outperform Guerrero Jr. for the next decade? The likes of Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr. and Shohei Ohtani are strong candidates to do so. Maybe Fernando Tatis Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll and Ronald Acuna Jr., too. Or rookies Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill and Paul Skenes.
Surely others will emerge over time, but the list is short and the players on it are either locked up to long-term deals, untouchable in trade talks or both. These are the kinds of players you build around if your market allows for it. And although the Blue Jays likely made a monster offer to Guerrero Jr., perhaps even straying from their traditionally disciplined approach along the way, it’s the end result that matters most here.
In many ways, the Blue Jays do act like a big-market team, pushing their payroll into the top five in MLB and bidding on top players Ohtani, Soto and Corbin Burnes. They certainly talk like a big market team, but for all of their pursuits they haven’t actually closed any mega deals.
George Springer’s six-year, $150-million deal is the largest contract in the franchise’s history, but in the scope of MLB contracts, it’s unremarkable. Twenty-four teams, including small-market clubs such as the Twins, Rays and Reds have completed deals worth more than $150 million. Those that haven’t: the Blue Jays, Athletics, Pirates, White Sox, Cardinals and Guardians.
This was a chance for the front office to flip that narrative, accept the risks and rewards of spending like a major market team and ensure that whatever happens next with Guerrero Jr. is in a Blue Jays uniform. There’s no guarantee he’s a Hall of Fame player, but he’s on track to become one, with 21.5 WAR before his 26th birthday. Now, if he does go into Cooperstown, it’s entirely possible it’s with the Mets or Red Sox.
“I’m going to listen to 29 other teams, and they’ll have to compete for me,” Guerrero Jr. said.
Were the Blue Jays close this time? “No.”
Based on this front office’s recent history in free agency, there’s a very real chance the Blue Jays get outbid and outmaneuvered when they do re-engage with Guerrero Jr. in free agency this fall.
The morning after those discussions would be a frustrating time for any team, but it’s especially challenging here because the Blue Jays haven’t developed enough talent internally to withstand the departure of a superstar-calibre player. Although the Dodgers (Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger) and Astros (Springer, Carlos Correa) were still elite teams after letting elite players leave, they had developed even more star players in a way the Blue Jays haven’t.
In Toronto, it’s not apparent when that next wave is coming. The Jays' farm system ranks in the bottom third of MLB teams, as ranked by ESPN (24th), Baseball America (23rd) and The Athletic (24th). They must draft and develop better, especially on the pitching side, but a deal with Guerrero Jr. would have bridged the gap to future seasons when the likes of Arjun Nimmala, a well-regarded 19-year-old shortstop prospect, could help at the highest level.
Further complicating matters, Bo Bichette has made it clear that he’d love to play alongside Guerrero Jr. for years to come. With that in mind, it’s likely now harder to extend Bichette, meaning he’s set to hit free agency this winter along with Guerrero Jr., Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and Chad Green. Free agent recruiting would have been easier with Guerrero Jr. in place, too.
Now, none of this changes the Blue Jays’ chances of competing in 2025. They have Guerrero Jr. for now, and project as a wild-card contender for the year ahead. But the clock is now ticking on his time in Toronto, a trade has never been easier to imagine and a missed opportunity hangs over the start of spring. The path forward for this franchise now looks uncomfortable and unclear.
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