Breaking down the ongoing evolution of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s bat

When it comes to the development of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bat this season, the dialogue thus far has become relatively one-note.

It seems that whenever Guerrero Jr. hits the ball on the ground, there’s hand wringing about his inability to elevate the ball. When he hits flyballs there’s hope that he’s figured things out. His raw power is immense, and at this point everyone knows the key to unlocking it is getting the ball in the air, so that’s been the focus.

Because his launch angle has decreased in 2020 (from 6.7 degrees to 4.9), and his groundball rate has risen (from 49.6 per cent to 56), the perception is that he’s failing to take the next step. That idea is reinforced by a .248/.333/.436 line that’s awfully similar to the .272/.339/.433 he posted last season.

While the launch angle issue is both persistent and important, the collective fixation on it has taken attention away from the notable strides the 21-year-old is making elsewhere. Specifically, Guerrero Jr. appears to be taking a step forward in both contact quality and plate discipline.

It may seem counterintuitive to say that his contact is improving when he’s still experiencing groundball troubles, but when he gets the ball in the air the results have been more promising. Guerrero Jr. has seen his average exit velocity on line drives and flyballs increase by one m.p.h. and his HR/FB has gone from 12.1 per cent to 19.0 percent. He’s also channeled his inner Joey Votto by not popping up once in 2020 after posting a troubling 14.5 per cent infield flyball rate last season.

Across the board, his Statcast numbers have gone from middling to excellent:

There’s no doubt that he still hits too many rockets on the ground, but it’s also clear that his power is coming through more in 2020 than it did in 2019 — even after stumbling out of the gate with a miserable final week of July that saw him hit .172/.200/.276 with a dire 68.2-per cent groundball rate. Since the calendar has turned, he’s slashed .276/.381/.500 with a far more manageable 51.6 groundball percentage.

Perhaps more significant than Vladdy’s contact gains — especially in a small sample — is his improved plate discipline. Guerrero Jr. has seen his walk rate jump and strikeout rate fall this year, improving his BB/K to 0.71 — which ranks 28th among 159 qualified hitters.

Particularly impressive has been the significant drop in his chase rate on pitches outside the zone, from 28.9 per cent last year (just a hair above league average) to 22.6 per cent this season. He’s not quite Cavan Biggio, but for the first time he looks like a guy whose ability to lay off pitchers was supposed to be the antithesis to his father’s free-swinging ways.

In particular, he’s made strides laying off tough breaking balls.

Last season, Guerrero Jr. really struggled with sliders and curves, hitting just .225 against them with a .337 slugging percentage. It was not unusual to see him reaching for these pitches whether they were outside…

…or in off the plate.

In contrast, so far this season we’ve seen Guerrero Jr. manage some advanced takes, even in two-strike counts. On this pitch from Monday, he was sitting 1-2 to Blake Snell, but didn’t bite on a nasty slider just off the inside corner.

Similarly, back in Atlanta, when Touki Toussaint was laying waste to the Blue Jays lineup with his sweeping curveball, Guerrero Jr. was able to resist this pitch in an 0-2 count:

You can see the first baseman was both impressed with that pitch and happy with himself by the way he nods to himself when he steps out of the box in this clip. That’s not an easy one to lay off.

Now, it’s hard to say with absolute certainty that those are pitches he would have swung at during his rookie season, but it sure seems that way. At the very least, he was more likely to offer at nasty breaking stuff outside the zone last year. In 2020, he’s hit .280 and slugged .769 off breaking balls largely because he’s swinging at the ones he can hit and leaving the others alone.

Considering Guerrero Jr.’s current numbers, it would be impossible to claim he’s in the midst of a full-blown breakout. Even so, his underlying statistics have improved and the most significant reason his numbers haven’t followed yet is a BABIP that’s dropped 45 points (from .308 to .263) despite the fact he’s posted better Expecting Batting Average and Expected Slugging Percentage numbers.

While the groundball problem is ongoing, it seems that Vladdy is becoming a better hitter overall. For now those differences are subtle. By the end of the year, they might not be.

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