Changing tone, Shapiro ‘ready to be optimistic’ about Blue Jays in Toronto

TORONTO – In trying to make sense of Mark Shapiro’s sudden outward optimism about a return to Rogers Centre for his team this summer, it’s important to remember that the Toronto Blue Jays are both strategic and meticulous about their external communications.

The president and CEO would not have inserted the notion into the public discourse as he’s made the media rounds in recent days on mere whim. There would have to be a calculus driving such a significant shift in tone, from GM Ross Atkins’ milquetoast desire to be in Toronto last week to Shapiro’s deliberate statements about “objective reasons” to think “that we’re not as much of a threat to public health.”

In part, that’s driven by U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent announcement that COVID-19 vaccines will be made available to all Americans by May 1. As Shapiro first told Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic and reiterated to me this weekend, Major League Baseball believes it will within the next few weeks to a month have widespread access to the shots, like most if not all Americans.

Some states are already open to all ages, and assuming players and staff around the majors get them soon, that will add to the current marginal positivity rates released by the league, which suggest clubs aren’t really vectoring disease. Combine that with how mass vaccinations have dramatically driven down infection rates in Israel – the most advanced leading indicator currently available in that regard – and it becomes reasonable to ask whether quarantine rules for arriving travellers are necessary for anyone who’s had the shots, not just athletes.

Push the bar to crush the curve!

Israel’s aggressive & rapid vaccination in motion pic.twitter.com/Z9EDW04fJB

— Hagai Rossman (@H_Rossman) March 22, 2021

“I’m ready to be optimistic,” Shapiro said during an interview. “The objective scientific data says that we have a chance to be less of a threat to public health by July. I have always been deferential to public health. But I feel like over the summer we have an objective reason to state a case that we will not be a threat to public health.”

To support that, Shapiro points to baseball’s aforementioned infection rates, which in results announced Friday showed the previous week’s 14,845 tests returned only one new positive, that from a player. Since the start of spring training, there have been 29 total positives in 64,192 tests, 16 of which occurred at intake, the rest in the sport’s monitoring phase.

None have been Blue Jays, said Shapiro, who added that “our players’ adherence to (MLB’s Operations Manual) protocol has led to a concrete zero-case result.”

Hence, “I would say the objective information I have is not just vaccines. The objective information I’ve had is that there’s been a very rigorous protocol in place throughout a shortened season last year and an entire spring training,” he added. “Coupled with vaccines, which people around the world seem to be signalling leads to herd immunity, which leads to a much safer public-health environment, that gives me objective reason to believe that there’s an optimistic chance we can play in Toronto this summer.”

More important than his belief, of course, is that Health Canada sees things the same way, which may be why Shapiro has begun to stump in such a public fashion.

There’s good reason for caution, particularly with the current troubling rise in Ontario’s case numbers and worrisome variants of COVID-19 circulating in the province.

MAR 22: #COVID19 in #Ontario
1699 cases*, 3 deaths, 1175 resolved
31089 tests/day, 14407 pending, 5.4% pos
813 hospitalized (298 in ICU)
1553040 vaccinations (+31335)
See thread for more graphs#onhealth #COVID19ontario pic.twitter.com/kDKiXfWlTN

— Dr. Jennifer Kwan (@jkwan_md) March 22, 2021

Experts are already pointing to the dangers posed by the Ontario government’s lagging reaction to a third wave of infections, fuelled in part by a vaccination campaign not moving fast enough for a public seemingly waiting for pharmaceutics to do the heavy lifting.

Shapiro said the Blue Jays aren’t yet building a proposal for the government, but those are the current trends that will backdrop any plan’s eventual consideration.

A Health Canada official said a request for comment will be answered in the coming days. But noteworthy is the response Sportsnet colleague Elliotte Friedman received when he asked if the 14-day quarantine might be eased for American-based NHL players acquired by Canadian clubs ahead of next month’s trade deadline.

“Scientific evidence is clear that the COVID-19 vaccines approved for use in Canada are highly effective at preventing illness,” Martin Begin from Health Canada wrote to Friedman. “However, there is still limited evidence on whether someone who received a COVID-19 vaccine is still able to transmit the virus.

“…Vaccinated travellers who are arriving in Canada must follow mandatory quarantine and testing requirements, including a 14-day quarantine, to protect themselves and others from COVID-19. Vaccination does not replace this requirement and it is not an element for consideration at this time in relation to quarantine exemptions.”

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Much can change between now and the summer. The Blue Jays are committed officially to Dunedin through May 2, are likely to be there until June and could pit-stop in Buffalo en route to a later return to Toronto from there.

One epidemiologist I spoke with suggested there was “a decent chance” the Blue Jays could return for the summer, maybe even with fans who had proof that they’d been vaccinated, but lots of pieces have to fall right for that to take place. First and foremost is getting through what look to be tough times ahead, and then accelerating the vaccination process.

“We haven’t even created a proposal,” said Shapiro. “We’re just saying that we feel optimistic that we could put something together in the next month or so. We’re not going to do that until we start actually getting vaccinated. That coupled with the results and the rigorous protocol, would be the basis of the proposal. But the proposal last year which provincial and municipal authorities felt was strong, was what it was. It probably wouldn’t be much different from that.”

Whether launching a trial balloon, trying to steer the conversation or sharing some private assurances, Shapiro wouldn’t put that out there lightly. The federal government said no after the city and province said yes last summer, and approval this time would signal good news not just for the Blue Jays, but a real step away from pandemic life for us all.

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