Diamondbacks have shot at improbable upset in Game 7 vs. Phillies

Heading into Game 6, everything was stacked against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Philadelphia Phillies were undefeated at home this post-season, had their co-ace Aaron Nola on the mound and were coming off a dominating Game 5 win that saw Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and J.T Realmuto go deep.

Coming back to Citizens Bank Park was supposed to be a coronation for the reigning kings of the National League.

Instead, the Diamondbacks spoiled the party, continuing their unlikely run, which now sits one game away from the franchise's first trip to the World Series since 2001.

Simply put, Arizona isn't supposed to be here. In the championship series era (since 1969), just three teams with fewer regular season wins than the Diamondbacks have even made it to their respective LCS — with the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals being the last to do so.

Tuesday night, Arizona will turn to rookie Brandon Pfaadt to counter Phillies lefty Rangers Suarez.

Pfaadt, like his team, is an improbable participant in Game 7 of the NLCS. The 25-year-old entered the season as one of baseball's highly touted pitching prospects, but struggled to find his footing as a big leaguer.

He posted an 8.37 ERA over his five career starts before being demoted to triple-A. Upon returning to the Diamondbacks full-time, Pfaadt showed signs of improvement, lowering his ERA, upping his strikeout rate and nearly cutting his home runs allowed per nine in half. And he's only continued on those improvements in this post-season.

In three playoff starts, the six-foot-four right-hander owns a 2.13 ERA and has 15 strikeouts over 12.2 innings of work. Pfaadt punctuated his arrival on the biggest stage in Game 3 of the NLCS with a nine-strikeout, two-hit performance against the very Phillies that he'll be tasked with shutting down once again.

The task won't fall to Pfaadt alone, though, as Arizona manager Torey Lovullo has been very cautious of avoiding the third-time-through-the-order penalty throughout the post-season, so don't be surprised if the bullpen doors are opening after the starter makes it through 15-18 hitters.

Diamondbacks relievers have gotten in a ton of work against Philadelphia, with Andrew Saalfrank, Ryan Thompson, Miguel Castro, Kevin Ginkel, Paul Sewald, Luis Frias and Joe Mantiply all having pitched in at least three of the six games this series.

Of course, Arizona hasn't gotten to this point on the backs of its pitchers alone. While it hasn't hit as many home runs against the Phillies as it did through the first two rounds of the post-season, the Diamondbacks offence has found a way to push runs across against some members of Philadelphia's bullpen.

Gregory Soto, Orion Kerkering and Craig Kimbrel have been responsible for giving up seven of Arizona's 15 earned runs in the playoffs. With Suarez on the mound and Phillies manager Rob Thomson deploying a similar strategy to Lovullo when the 28-year-old starts, he may be forced to turn to one of those arms early in Game 7 if things go sideways.

After throwing 99 pitches in Game 5 on Saturday, keep an eye on Zack Wheeler for an appearance out of the bullpen if the Phillies need to move on from Suarez in the early stages Tuesday night.

HOW THE BATS LINE UP

Despite the fact that Arizona seemingly holds all the momentum heading into Tuesday night's winner-take-all game, the Phillies still hold the playoff trump card with just how many home runs they hit.

Teams that hit more long balls than their opponent are 21-3 this post-season.

The Phillies have hit 23 home runs this October, with 10 of those coming in the NLCS. Kyle Schwarber alone has hit the same amount of homers as all Diamondbacks hitters in this series. So, while it may sound too simple to say that Arizona needs to keep the high-powered Philadelphia offence in the yard, that's exactly what its pitching staff will have to do if it wants to advance.

Somehow, Tuesday's matchup will be the first Game 7 in Phillies' franchise history after being established in 1883. Not only is it the franchise's first seven-game series, but that is also the case for Harper.

The two-time MVP has emerged as a certified post-season performer over the last two years in Philadelphia. He owns a .337/.446/.733 slash line over that time with 11 home runs, 21 RBI and 26 runs scored. If there was ever a time for him to shine, he now has the perfect stage.

On the Diamondbacks side, Ketel Marte has been their catalyst throughout the series. He has a hit in each of Arizona's 11 playoff games and has come through when it matters most. Whether it be his walk-off single in Game 3 or his RBI triple to chase Nola in Game 6, Marte has made his mark against Phillies' pitching. The 30-year-old owned left-handed pitching this season and has gone 6-for-15 off Suarez in his career — might things be setting up for him to cap off his dominant series with an NLCS MVP?

The Diamondbacks also upped their running game Monday night, swiping four bags after previously stealing only one base through the first five games. So, it bears watching if Arizona continues to run rampant to put extra pressure on the Phillies' defence.

While the Philadelphia crowd will be rocking and the Phillies stars will surely be locked in for Game 7, if we've learned anything from the Diamondbacks this post-season, it's to never count them out.

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