Dodgers-Padres NLDS Preview: All eyes on Ohtani in MLB playoff debut

This is the moment baseball has been waiting for.

After seven seasons, over 860 games, 225 home runs, the first ever 50-50 season in MLB history and two (soon to be three) MVP awards, Shohei Ohtani is set to make his MLB post-season debut.

Ohtani and his Los Angeles Dodgers are in for a stiff test against their National League West rival starting Saturday. The San Diego Padres ride into town fresh off a sweep of the Atlanta Braves, carrying their own roster stocked full of stars who would be happy to add another chapter of playoff disappointment in L.A.

This will be the third post-season matchup between the two clubs in the past five years, with the Dodgers sweeping San Diego in 2020 before the Padres flipped the script in the 2022 NLDS.

Regardless of how complete a team San Diego is, all the pressure in this series falls on the Dodgers’ shoulders. With the MVP trio of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, it’s World Series or bust for the foreseeable future at Chavez Ravine.

No. 1 Dodgers (98-64) vs. No. 4 Padres (93-69)

Padres won the season series, 8-5, outscoring the Dodgers 62-56.

San Diego handled business against Los Angeles for most of the regular season, but the Dodgers locked up the NL West title with a series win against the Padres in the last week of September.

What’s working for the Dodgers: 

For as many pitching injuries as the Dodgers sustained this season, it really didn’t matter as the best offence in baseball by OPS and a better-than-advertised bullpen carried them to a 98-win season anyway. Ohtani, Betts and Freeman rightfully get all the headlines, but the four through nine of Los Angeles’ order features a mix of solid veteran contributors Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith and Max Muncy. Of course, Ohtani enters October coming off one of the most staggering months of his career. The Japanese superstar slashed a ridiculous .393/.458/.766 with 10 home runs in September, helping L.A. lock down the best record in baseball. The Dodger bullpen quietly stabilized after the trade deadline, pitching to a 3.29 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .219 average against. The likes of Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and Blake Treinen have been among baseball’s stingiest relievers in the second half and will be called upon to play a major role in this series once the Dodgers get past their top two starters.

What’s working for the Padres:

Led by Fernando Tatis Jr. and supported by Kyle Higashioka, San Diego’s offence continued to click in the wild-card round. Tatis went 4-for-6 against Atlanta, including his epic two-run blast in the first inning of Game 1. In the 25-year-old’s brief post-season career, he now owns a 1.300 OPS with three home runs and seven walks in just 35 plate appearances. He didn’t take down the Braves singlehandedly, though, as Higashioka homered twice in the series and star rookie Jackson Merrill looked ready for the playoff stage, going 3-for-7 with a double and rally-sealing triple over the two games against the Braves. Michael King also introduced himself to the national audience with 12 strikeouts in his October debut. Even with Joe Musgrove out for the NLDS, San Diego’s starting pitching will continue to be in good hands with King, Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Martin Perez.

Potential Achilles heel for the Dodgers:

In short, the starting pitching. For the entirety of the 2024 season, Dodgers starters ranked 19th in MLB with a 4.23 ERA — made worse by a 4.57 second-half mark that leaves them vulnerable heading into this series. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty are the known variables for Games 1 and 2, but it’s beyond those two where questions will arise. Walker Buehler and Landon Knack were the other two starters on the roster as the regular season came to a close, and neither instilled much confidence with their performance leading into the post-season. It will be the rotation’s job to keep the bullpen from wearing down early in what could be a long five-game set. Freeman’s status could also be cause for concern if his ankle sprain limits or forces him to miss time in the series.

Potential Achilles heel for the Padres:

It'll be if other Padres offensive stars stay quiet. We’ve already established just how good Tatis and Merrill were against Atlanta, but on the other side of that coin were former All-Stars Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth combining to go 2-for-27 with eight strikeouts. Sure, it’s just a two-game sample, but Machado, Profar and Bogaerts have all been below-average hitters by wRC+ over their post-season careers, so it’s not the first time the trio has come up short in October. San Diego is going to need more than Taits, Merrill and Luis Arraez to string together hits if they want to match the firepower coming out of the Dodgers’ dugout.

It’ll all come down to …

Ohtani, Betts and Freeman. Last year, Betts and Freeman stumbled in an NLDS sweep against the Arizona Diamondbacks, combining to go just 1-for-21 in the series. Now, with Ohtani in tow, the Dodgers will need their top three players to rise to the moment if they want to prevent their division rival from sending them packing for the second time in three years.