Examining Blue Jays OF Varsho's early-season issues with high-velocity pitches

When Daulton Varsho came to the Toronto Blue Jays in an off-season trade, he seemed like a perfect fit for a number of reasons.

His excellent outfield defence projected to help a Blue Jays team that had struggled in that area for years, while his ability to play centre was appealing given Kevin Kiermaier’s durability issues in recent seasons, and expiring contract.

His ability to catch seemed nifty considering Toronto carries two backstops it likes to have in its lineup at the same time. 

Perhaps most importantly, he brought a left-handed bat with some thump, another element the team had been lacking. More than halfway through 2023, the 27-year-old is carrying an 85 wRC+ that indicates he hasn’t provided the expected boost.

For the most part, Varsho’s struggles seem to be a combination of minor downturns at the edges of his game. His power output is slightly down despite Statcast numbers that match his previous output. His walk rate is a touch below normal. His BABIP is 20 points below his career average (.272).

On a macro level, there doesn’t appear to be any reason to panic. Varsho is just having a half-season that’s a little worse than usual in a variety of small ways. FanGraphs’ six projection systems see him producing a wRC+ between 106 and 112 from here on out and that’s well within the realm of possibility.

However, there is an area of Varsho’s game where his dropoff in production has been dramatic, and it’s one that relates to how he was supposed to help the Blue Jays lineup. 

One of the reasons Toronto was eager to get a left-handed power bat for 2023 is that the team had struggled in late-and-close situations when opponents could turn to power righty relievers capable of erasing the Blue Jays’ big right-handed bats.

Varsho came to Toronto looking like a guy likely to make a significant dent in that issue. Not only did he wield a lefty bat that could be potent, in recent years he’d been one of MLB’s best hitters at dealing with top-flight velocity.

The outfielder’s overall numbers against fastballs haven’t jumped off the page, but from his rookie year in 2020 to the end of 2022 his run value against pitches 97 m.p.h. or harder (+7.4) ranked sixth in the major leagues. When faced with some of the toughest fastballs MLB had to offer, he slugged .652 with an xSLG of .601.

His spray chart against these big-time heaters indicated an ability to both shoot them the other way and blast them to right field.

The following home run is a perfect example of what Varsho is capable of at his best. Camilo Doval threw a 101.8 m.p.h. cutter at the top of the zone and the outfielder turned on it with authority:

For a little frame of reference, that is the hardest pitch anyone hit for a home run between 2020 and 2023. It’s the fifth-hardest pitch to end up in the seats since the beginning of reliable velocity tracking in 2008.

While it was a little bit closer to the middle of the plate than Doval might have wanted, it was still in the upper third of the zone.

Look at the disbelief on the reliever’s face as Varsho rounds the bases.

It’s just one play but it’s the type of play that simply isn’t supposed to happen — and it’s indicative of the special bat speed Varsho possesses.

This context matters because the outfielder has not shown this side of his game since joining the Blue Jays. In 2023, his run value against fastballs 97 m.p.h. or harder sits at -2.9. More than 500 hitters have a better mark.

He’s cleared the wall on one elite fastball, but it was a pitch he fought off the other way and most of his batted balls have been on the infield or nearby.

We aren’t talking about many balls in play, but he has a SLG of .364 and xSLG of .249 when he’s made contact. Getting the bat to the ball at all has been an issue as 35.2 per cent of his swings have resulted in whiffs — and foul balls make up another 46.3 per cent of his cuts.

The sample is small here, but there have been some at-bats where he’s looked totally outmatched against quality heat. His first try against rookie fireballer Eury Perez on June 20 is a good example.

After taking a first-pitch fastball for a strike, Varsho was late on a heater up and away ...

… then got absolutely blown away on a fastball right down the plate to end the three-pitch at-bat.

Hitting high-velocity pitches isn’t easy but these struggles are uncharacteristic for Varsho.

It would be unfair to say there's an obvious solution to this problem for the outfielder but it seems reasonable to expect better things ahead. Varsho has shown special bat speed in the recent past — and he’s at an age where issues catching up to fastballs are unlikely to appear out of nowhere.

Chances are Varsho will find his way against the hard stuff in the weeks to come. 

That would go a long way to bringing his 2023 campaign in line with the expectations the Blue Jays had when they traded for him. It might also help him come up with a big hit or two in the type of spots Toronto struggled with at times last year, and well into this season.