Examining some contradictions surrounding the Blue Jays

TORONTO — Early this off-season, the Blue Jays are full of apparent contradictions.

Their budget is limited, yet they’re meeting with Juan Soto? They’re described as aggressive on other top free agents, but they talk publicly about being patient? And why this talk of non-tendering relievers when the bullpen is a glaring area of need?

At last week’s GM Meetings, conversations about the Blue Jays veered in wildly different directions with some industry sources predicting big moves and others suggesting their off-season’s far more likely to comprise of modest additions. With that in mind, let’s investigate those apparent contradictions and see if there are any satisfying explanations to be found:

How are they in on Soto and Max Fried if there’s also talk of a $25-30 million budget?

This one’s likely the simplest to explain. Last off-season, ownership at Rogers Communications Inc., which also owns Sportsnet, approved an offer of approximately $700 million for Shohei Ohtani but that was considered a special circumstance. The money was there for Ohtani, but wasn’t available to redistribute elsewhere.

One year later, the same thinking applies to Soto, who’s even younger than Ohtani at 26 years old. While the Yankees and Mets are seen by industry observers as the most likely landing spots for Soto, the Blue Jays will at least try (an idea: they should recruit Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and, of course, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to help make the pitch, highlighting the Blue Jays’ Dominican heritage).

Yet if Soto goes elsewhere, the Blue Jays won’t have those hundreds of millions to spend on other players. The same applies to other elite players like Fried, in whom the Blue Jays expressed early interest.

Why are the Blue Jays being described as aggressive if GM Ross Atkins is talking about patience?

At the GM Meetings, it became clear that the Blue Jays were motivated in the starting pitching market, showing early interest in the likes of Fried, Luis Severino and Yusei Kikuchi, plus 23-year-old Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki. Yet Atkins spoke about being patient rather than rushing things.

Here’s my read on how it adds up: even if you’re willing to be patient in the hopes that better deals emerge later in the off-season, it’s a bad look to call a player up for the first time on January 15. Better to start the conversation now and learn as much as possible about what motivates potential targets.

Do they want a specific role? Is it all about money? Do they want to sign before the holidays? Gathering that information now is essential, and it allows front offices to regroup and prioritize their next steps ahead of the Winter Meetings. 

At this point, it’s largely information gathering, but in the course of these conversations the Blue Jays also reveal something about their own priorities. For example, they’re willing to be patient in certain areas, like backup catcher or their bullpen, but they’re more motivated in the starting pitching market, urging certain high-end pitchers to circle back with them before agreeing to deals elsewhere.

Why this talk of non-tendering relievers if they need bullpen help? 

The Blue Jays have already parted ways with Genesis Cabrera, and in Jordan Romano ($7.75 million), Erik Swanson ($3.2 million), Dillon Tate ($1.9 million) and Zach Pop ($1 million), they have four more relievers whose projected arbitration salaries via MLB Trade Rumors make them potential non-tender candidates.

The Blue Jays see potential in all four and would presumably be happy to welcome them all to Dunedin, Fla., for spring training. The question is: at what cost, and with what guarantees? Romano was slated to complete a bullpen session this month, providing the team with more information about the status of his surgically repaired elbow. At this point, anything’s on the table, including a pre-tender deal that sees the sides avoid an arbitration hearing in advance.

Meanwhile, with Swanson, Tate and Pop, the Blue Jays will have to decide whether they’re worth their projected arbitration salaries. Otherwise, they’d have more bullpen spots to fill, and more money to do it with.

Either way, history tells us the Blue Jays are not likely to set the market for relievers with a four-year deal for someone like Jeff Hoffman or Tanner Scott. And either way, there’s a lot of work to do when it comes to rebuilding the bullpen that ranked last in MLB in WAR in 2024.