Four paths Blue Jays could take in high-stakes summer

TORONTO — The baseball calendar forces several natural decision points, and the one looming ahead of the July 30 trade deadline is particularly fraught for the Toronto Blue Jays. 

Though 77 per cent of their schedule remains, a stretch of 10 losses in 14 outings that left them 17-20 highlighted just how much is at stake this summer.

With 17 players set to reach free agency over the next two winters and a farm system ranked 23rd by FanGraphs and 24th by both Baseball America and MLB.com, the Blue Jays’ window of opportunity appears to be shrinking. As a result, each and every streak, hot or cold, seems destined to amplify emotions about what comes next.

To help frame the spectrum of possibilities, consider these two extremes: the 2015 Blue Jays and the 2016 New York Yankees.

On July 27, 2015, the Blue Jays were 50-50 when former GM Alex Anthopoulos began a wild week of addition. They finished the season 43-19, rallied to win the American League East and went to the ALCS in consecutive seasons.

“The guys in that clubhouse, they deserve it,” Anthopoulos said after trading for left-hander David Price from the Tigers that July 30. “They’ve played extremely well — I think we all feel like we’re better than what we’ve shown so far. And this is a move that makes the club stronger.”

On the flip side, the Yankees were 50-48 on July 25, 2016, when GM Brian Cashman decided against holding on in the hopes of contending, or even buying to bolster a push, instead beginning a sell-off by sending Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs. 

Deals for Andrew Miller, Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova followed, returning a significant prospect haul fronted by Gleyber Torres. It was a stunning retreat — one taken with no regret.

“You don’t want to double down when things are going bad, in my opinion,” Cashman said during an interview with Sportsnet in May 2017. “We needed to improve the foundation and relieve ourselves of some obligations at the same time, so move older players and the contracts committed to them, which makes room for younger players, gives us financial flexibility and then the prospects we get back, too. We’re adding to the foundation, which hopefully plays well for the future.”

It very much did, as the Yankees returned to the playoffs in 2017, the first in a run of six straight post-season trips that ended last year. 

A key factor in both of the above decisions was run-differential. In 2015, when the Blue Jays were 50-50, they were plus-95 and had an expected won-loss record of 59-41, signalling they were underperforming their talent. In 2016, when the Yankees were 50-48, they were minus-25 with an expected record of 46-52, suggesting they were overperforming their ability.
 
The 2024 Blue Jays – currently at minus-44 – have plenty of runway left before decision time arrives, and access to a wide range of possibilities between those two buy-sell extremes, but tough decisions are coming either way.
 
Let’s take an early look at some potential approaches:

It’s early May. The Blue Jays are three games under .500. It’s been tough, but there are worse places to be with 125 games to go and three wild cards up for grabs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer are likely to put up numbers. The bullpen should stabilize and the rotation is strong enough to consistently put this team in position to win. Plus, there’s the possibility of help from the farm from the likes of Orelvis Martinez, Spencer Horwitz, Addison Barger and, once healthy, Ricky Tiedemann.

THE CASE FOR: If things play out, you give your players a chance to turn it around without closing off possibilities later in the summer. As flawed as this group may look, Springer, Guerrero and Bichette have extended track records suggesting better things are ahead for this lineup, even if it never becomes a powerhouse like the 2021-22 groups.

Ultimately, the goal is to win, and selling shouldn’t be Plan A for a team coming off consecutive playoff appearances. Plus, six teams per league make the playoffs, so you don't have to be an elite club to qualify. As last year's Diamondbacks showed, even middling regular-season teams can go on memorable runs.

If you give up now, you close yourself off to those possibilities — and to what end? Even if the Blue Jays do end up selling, they can get just as much back in July, or maybe even more than if they were to try to force buyers into action in May. 

THE CASE AGAINST: Let’s say the Blue Jays are 53-55 at the trade deadline, decide to hold and then miss the playoffs. They’d miss chances to restock the farm system by dealing pending free agents, especially someone such as Yimi Garcia, who would be in high demand in late July but isn’t a candidate to receive a qualifying offer and set up a future draft pick, like Yusei Kikuchi might.

In some ways, that’s the worst-case scenario, one that would be more bearable if their farm system was more flush with prospects waiting to emerge. No post-season and no infusion of prospects or high draft picks becomes a double penalty.

Adding to the risk is the possibility that a pending free agent suffers an injury that sends their value to zero, another nightmare scenario that could undercut both the current club and the chance to recoup prospect capital if a pivot is necessary.

At the same time, trade markets rarely develop this early, and with the exception of A.J. Preller, San Diego’s relentless and unpredictable GM, executives aren’t typically forcing the issue so early in the year. 

VERDICT: The Blue Jays’ most logical option is to stay the course for now while making additions to the edges of the roster whenever possible. That approach keeps all options open. But as viable a pathway as it is with so much schedule left, it’s also an incredibly risky move to wait all summer without choosing a direction. As they learn more about their record, performance and health, the Blue Jays must be ready to shift, even if it’s uncomfortable.

The assumption going into the season was that the Blue Jays would be buyers, just as they have been ahead of each of the last four deadlines. Ideally, the big-league team would play well enough to justify this approach once again. Win, buy, win more — sounds like a dream summer for GM Ross Atkins, but that’s not where the Blue Jays are, either.

If they do decide to add, it’s easy to see where they could upgrade. Relief help and starting-pitching depth are always on the table for contenders, and the Blue Jays could consider left fielders, second basemen and third basemen as they explore offensive upgrades. They could look at longer-term pieces such as Brent Rooker, Ryan McMahon and Gavin Sheets or rental types such as Starling Marte, Tommy Pham and Jesse Winker.

On paper, it’s simple enough, but the big questions here would be how soon to add and how much to give up.

THE CASE FOR: In 2021, the Blue Jays waited too long to fix a dreadful bullpen, and several blown leads in May and June that summer ended up costing them in a big way when they missed the playoffs by one measly game. The sooner they bolster this group, the longer they have to leverage the impact.

If you’re going to go for it, then, really go for it. Most prospects don’t pan out, as evidenced by win-now deals the front office pulled off for the likes of Jose Berrios, Matt Chapman and Robbie Ray. Does anyone still miss Austin Martin, Gunnar Hoglund or Travis Bergen? Plus, adding now would send an important message to players in the clubhouse about the organizational confidence in this group.

Worst case, if you go for it now and realize in eight weeks that it was a mistake, you can always flip players at the deadline. It’s not ideal, but as the Padres showed with their Juan Soto trades, difference-making players are always in demand.

THE CASE AGAINST: If this season really isn’t going to end with a playoff berth, there’s power in realizing that sooner than later instead of spending more prospect capital on a bet that’s just not working. Some incremental gains to a .500 team isn’t going to fundamentally transform things, after all.

Most importantly, you save your prospect inventory. The Blue Jays have invested heavily in their player development infrastructure. Trust it and allow the young talent already in-house to augment the big-league team, rather than depleting it further for short-term external help.

VERDICT: Within a month, the Blue Jays will have a much clearer sense of where they fit in the post-season picture. If they climb back to relevance, that clears the path to becoming buyers for the fifth year in a row. But there’s also a ton of risk in surrendering young talent if the playoff probability isn’t higher than the current 26 per cent. So far, this team hasn’t played well enough to justify giving up top prospects.

If it becomes apparent that 2024 isn’t going to be the Blue Jays’ year, the front office must explore ways to turn pending free agents into players who can help in 2025 and beyond. That means listening with genuine openness on the likes of Kikuchi, Garcia, Danny Jansen, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier, all of whom are in the final years of their deals.

A partial reset would likely make the Blue Jays a worse team down the stretch in 2024, but if they target players close to big-league readiness, they wouldn’t necessarily be waving a total white flag. Case in point, the Tigers and Pirates were both above .500 after last year's trade deadline despite selling.

By holding onto core players like Guerrero Jr. and Bichette, the Blue Jays would still position themselves to contend in 2025, when they could combine this group with their trade returns plus free agents from a class headlined by Juan Soto that also includes Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Teoscar Hernandez and the players they’d trade. 

If such a scenario were to occur, team president and CEO Mark Shapiro would also need to decide if Atkins is the right person to make such a pivot. Atkins has done this once before, selling off pieces from the 2015-16 teams and returning a handful of big-leaguers, highlighted by Hernandez, but should he get another chance? Further complicating the situation is that Shapiro’s contract expires after the 2025 season, while Atkins’ runs through 2026.

THE CASE FOR: Kikuchi looks like someone who should start playoff games, and the way Garcia is pitching, he could record the final outs of a post-season series. If the Blue Jays do end up selling, they’d be among the top pitchers available — maybe even the top starting pitcher and the top reliever on the market.

Think back to last year, when the Royals got Cole Ragans from the Rangers for Aroldis Chapman. Or even the trade the Blue Jays made with the Cardinals for Jordan Hicks, sending prospects Adam Kloffenstein (5.35 ERA at triple-A) and Sem Robberse (2.81 ERA at triple-A) to St. Louis. A return along those lines should be on the table for Garcia.

As for Kikuchi, starting pitching is consistently in demand in late July, putting the Blue Jays in a powerful position. But they’d need to do better than they did the last time they sold a coveted left-handed starter, dealing J.A. Happ to the Yankees for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney in 2018. Better to draw inspiration from the 2017 deal that brought in Teoscar Hernandez for Francisco Liriano.

Either way, any return should be greater than the compensatory pick the Blue Jays would get if Kikuchi declines a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere this off-season. Plus, if the Blue Jays go down this path, they’d open up playing time to learn more about their own players Barger, Horwitz and Martinez while taking flyers on interesting newcomers via trade and waivers.

And while Garcia and Kikuchi fit on any contender and would likely be the Blue Jays’ most coveted players, it would make sense to also listen on Jansen, Turner and Kiermaier, as any infusion of contractually controlled talent strengthens their base for 2025 and beyond.

As Cashman showed with the Yankees, the right short-term pivot can pay off for years as opposed to taking a low-percentage chance at a wild-card spot.

“Listen, we’re about championships. You can see the flags all over for all the titles,” Cashman said during that 2017 interview, pointing to the banners on the façade ringing the stands at Yankee Stadium. “We don’t hang wild cards up here. We don’t hang division titles up here. We hang the 27 championship titles around the ballpark.” 

THE CASE AGAINST: Giving up on a season is a gutting decision. Depending on their record, selling could be unpopular in the clubhouse. Let’s say the Blue Jays are five games under .500 at the deadline, for instance. That could lead to disappointment for players, many of whom are veterans with few remaining chances to win it all.

At the same time, there’s a solution to that: play better, and this team will be buying rather than selling. Ultimately, the path ahead can’t be dictated by clubhouse vibes but there are other potential downsides even beyond questions of morale.

For instance, re-signing Kikuchi might be harder once you trade him elsewhere. The Blue Jays could be viewed as a less attractive landing spot in free agency next year and it would create even more pressure heading into 2025.

And a sell-off could badly impact attendance over the final two months of the season and advance sales into next year, which isn’t ideal immediately after completing a $400-million stadium renovation.

VERDICT: Despite the downside, if the Blue Jays are more than a few games under .500 and several games out of a playoff spot at the trade deadline, they should sell with a view toward 2025 and beyond. That would likely mean dealing Kikuchi, Garcia and any other pending free agents who bring real prospects in return. It would be painful but necessary.

There’s also the option no one wants — a total rebuild. To be clear, there’s no indication from leadership that this kind of course change is being considered. Publicly, Blue Jays decision-makers continue expressing optimism about the current window.

But, for argument’s sake, let’s consider what this might look like. Along with deals for their pending free agents, the Blue Jays would generate lots of trade interest in players with more team control, too.

Among the 2025 free agents on this roster are Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Jordan Romano, Chris Bassitt, Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Cavan Biggio, Tim Mayza and Genesis Cabrera. That’s a lot of talent — not the kind of group you move off because you’re a few games under .500 in May, or surrender if you think you can make another run in 2025.

But just as we’ve considered best-case scenarios above, there are extremes on the other side. Players with term are highly coveted at the trade deadline. If nothing else, the Blue Jays could gauge the market for their 2025-26 free agent class and use the information before July 30, next off-season, or before the 2025 trade deadline.

Shapiro is too judicious and methodical to act impulsively, so taking this course would likely mean things have gone so poorly this year that the Blue Jays’ chances next year have also been submarined. Imagine multiple injuries that carry over into 2025. Or a near roster-wide collapse in performance.

And, again, if the Blue Jays went this route, they’d have to decide who oversees the process.

THE CASE FOR: If executed well, this is a way to fast-track a rebuild by completely bolstering the farm system’s foundation, while setting up a couple of early-round drafts. Opening up roster spots also allows the organization to audition several of the upper-level prospects currently in-house to see if any core pieces emerge from the likes of Horwitz, Barger, Martinez, Damiano Palmegiani, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich and others.

Given how few sellers are out there, particularly ones with the type of talent the Blue Jays could potentially make available, they would very much be in control of the market, able to leverage buyers against one another to maximize their return.

At the same time, they could redirect their newfound financial flexibility back into the free agent market for players to augment their developing group, the way they did coming out of the 2019 season when they signed Hyun Jin Ryu.

THE CASE AGAINST: Do you remember the misery of that 95-loss 2019? Rebuilds really suck, especially when they follow an unfulfilled competitive window. And they don’t always work, either. Think about how long the Tigers and Royals have been in purgatory, showing signs of turning the corner only recently. The Rockies and Marlins seem destined to never escape. So, you risk alienating your fanbase for an uncertain future that may or may not bear fruit. Yikes.

Then, let’s remember that other teams aren’t in a rush to surrender their top prospects. Every once in a while you get a Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields or Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields or Hernandez for Liriano. But, generally, buying teams are trying to keep the prospects they truly believe in, and trade those they deem less likely to succeed in the majors. That further complicates the situation for sellers. Getting these deals right is really hard.

And then your players may not be worth all that you think they are. Salaries can limit a player’s market, as buyers are loath to both surrender prospect capital and take on big money. Shorter periods of control mean smaller returns, too. Buyers don’t always make off like bandits and all that remains is pain.

VERDICT: This scenario looks extremely unlikely. The Blue Jays front office has built up to this moment for years, and giving up on the final season of Guerrero Jr. and Bichette, especially now that the stadium renovation is completed, seems counterintuitive. As things stand now, it appears to be a very last resort.