LAS VEGAS — Major League Baseball’s annual GM Meetings, a groundwork-laying session for the off-season’s business, kick off this week at the Aria Resort & Casino with extra impetus due to the impending lockout.
Typically, clubs and agents don’t get much done beyond initial exchanges of interest and expectations during the gathering, which wraps up Thursday. But the Dec. 1 expiry of the collective bargaining agreement and the freeze of activity that follows without a new deal might inject more urgency into the process.
Baseball, after all, loves working toward deadlines and, based on how the off-season played out five years ago, the last time the CBA expired leading to a lockout, it’s reasonable to expect the top tier of free agents and the international market to play out before the first cut-off.
In turn, that will lead into a mad scramble for the remaining players once a new CBA is in place, and some will want to avoid that, creating more opportunities for early action.
The uncertainty of what a new agreement looks like, of course, is another dynamic that could factor into the mix and is top of mind for the industry. Owners, for what it’s worth, framed their Nov. 3 proposal to players, featuring delayed implementation of a salary cap until the 2028 season, around providing clarity for this winter’s business.
Here’s what to else you need to know about the meetings:
Labour issues: Cap or no cap, the possibility that the sport’s economic framework will be more restrictive in the next CBA is a prime issue to manage for executives of higher-spending teams, who will be careful about adding payroll without a full understanding of the implications. The Toronto Blue Jays, for instance, already have a projected $251.8 million on the books between guaranteed money and arbitration estimates for 2027 and another $189.2 million in guarantees for 2028, which, under MLB’s proposal, would have a hard cap of $258.2 million. So, adding too aggressively now could really bind a team like them next off-season if owners get their way and get a cap, or leave them facing undetermined penalties if a stricter Competitive Balance Tax system is negotiated instead.
The uncertainty may also factor into the trade market, as the possibility of missed games muddles the value for players who are pending free agents after the 2027 season, or even players with two seasons of contractual control. Elimination of the qualifying-offer system, which nets teams a compensatory draft pick if they extend an offer to a departing free agent, is on the table, which further impacts the value equation for certain players.
Free agents: Tarik Skubal headlines a market that is good for teams seeking pitching but less so those hunting impact bats, with Seiya Suzuki, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Jazz Chisholm fronting the available position players. Skubal is the undisputed gem although Trevor Rogers, Freddy Peralta, Michael King, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle give the starting market some depth, versatile arms like Nick Martinez and Clay Holmes are always in demand and back-end relievers Adrian Morejon and David Bednar are sure to be popular.
Back in 2021, a slew of big free-agent deals were signed before the lockout started, with the Texas Rangers committing half-a-billion dollars to land Corey Seager ($325 million, 10 years) and Marcus Semien ($175 million, seven years). Javier Baez ($140 million, six years), Max Scherzer ($130 million, three years), Robbie Ray ($115 million, five years) and Kevin Gausman ($110 million, five years) are among other big deals before the freeze hit.
Despite the labour unknowns, some execs expect the off-season to unfold similarly this time. One thing to keep in mind is that the groundwork on players who don’t sign is also vital, allowing teams and agents to quickly pick up once the deal-making resumes. Last time, the Blue Jays engaged Yusei Kikuchi after signing Gausman before the lockout and locked down the Japanese lefty shortly after the CBA was in place.
International markets: Third baseman/outfielder Terauki Sato and righties Kaima Taira and Kona Takahashi front an intriguing international market that expected to be resolved by Dec. 1 as they can’t sit in limbo between NPB teams and the majors.
This is an arena the Blue Jays will be active in and their success in transitioning Kazuma Okamoto might help their future pursuits.
Other business: While GMs will spend the next few days meeting with agents and other clubs, they will have regular meetings with league officials discussing everything from rules to various procedures. After implementation of the ABS challenge system this past season, no major rule changes are expected for 2028. MLB’s experimentation with bat-tracking technology for judging check swings still needs work, according to one source.
Awards: Running parallel to the GM Meetings is awards week, beginning with the American League and National League rookies of the year on Monday. Managers are up Tuesday, followed by a busy Wednesday that features both the Cy Young Award winners and the Baseball Writers Association of America’s new Reliever of the Year awards. The MVP winners cap things off Thursday.
Blue Jays ace Dylan Cease is a finalist for AL Cy Young along with Cam Schlittler of the Yankees and Parker Messick of the Guardians, while Jays closer Louis Varland is up against Canadian Cade Smith of the Guardians and Bryan Baker of the Rays.
