Good pitching, lack of hitting a losing formula for Blue Jays

TORONTO – Run differential tends to be a fairly indicative measure of where a team is at, which is what makes significant divergences between expected wins losses and actual wins and losses pretty intriguing. Sometimes those gaps are merely noise, but sometimes they can be signals, too. Understanding whether it’s one or the other, therefore, is clearly essential to a team’s decision-making.

So what, then, is to be read into the minus-45 the Toronto Blue Jays are now carrying after Friday night’s 3-2 loss to the surging Minnesota Twins, when they squandered eight dominant innings from Yusei Kikuchi?

At 17-21, they are three wins better than the expected record their run-differential equates to, suggesting they’re fortunate to have the mark that they do. But their wide gap in runs scored and runs allowed is also demonstrative of how dependent they are on strong pitching to win, because right now they can’t slug their way to victory – they are 0-14 when allowing six or more runs.

And as their 11^th loss in the past 15 outings shows, even when their pitchers deliver a gem, the way Kikuchi did in allowing just two runs on four hits – three in the first, capped by Jose Miranda’s RBI single, plus Carlos Santana’s go-ahead solo shot in the fifth – it still might not be enough.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa tied the game 1-1 in the third with a solo shot off Joe Ryan, bringing some joy to a crowd of 34,205, and added an RBI single in the ninth to make it a one-run affair after Max Kepler’s pinch-hit RBI single in the top of the frame.

But the game ended when Ernie Clement’s liner deflected directly off Griffin Jax’s butt to first base, where Santana collected it for the final out, stranding the tying run at third base.

The cruel ending “sucked,” as manager John Schneider so aptly put it, but seemed fitting as the Blue Jays also had a rally fizzle in the fifth when Daulton Varsho ripped a 103.2-m.p.h. laser right at Santana, before a 97.2-m.p.h. liner by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. settled right into Manuel Margot’s glove in right.

It all felt painfully familiar for the Blue Jays, who were held to two runs or less for the 16^th time in 38 outings. But a difference Kiner-Falefa noted was that “the compete was there,” an element “we'd been lacking a little bit, feeling sorry for ourselves when we get down.”

“We had a good approach, good compete that second game in Philly (a 5-3 win) and tonight, same thing,” he continued. “We can live with the results when we're battling. Tonight, the attitude was there. The approach was there. We just didn't get the big, big hit. But I felt like the process was better, has been better of late, and hopefully we can keep it going.”

The Blue Jays need to turn it up fast, as after the Twins they visit the Baltimore Orioles before hosting the Tampa Bay Rays, a difficult stretch that can really deepen their hole. Afterwards, four games at Detroit are sandwiched by three-game series versus the Chicago White Sox, an opportunity that makes righting their compete – the way they play the game, rather than their effort – crucial.

“When things aren't going right, you try so hard to be perfect,” explained Kiner-Falefa. “You go into the cage and you're looking for that double in left-centre, you're looking for that home-run swing, you're looking for the results that you get when you're locked in. When everybody's searching for that collectively, that turns into a thinking game. Of late, I feel like no matter how guys feel, they just go in there and compete.

“If that's a hit and run, if that's moving the guy over, if that's working a walk, or working a long at-bats so the next guy gets a good pitch to hit, it's just playing team baseball,” he continued. “A passing-the-baton approach rather than nine guys going up there to win the game on one swing. If we're down multiple runs, we need a guy on. So, just understanding the situation and trying to be the best version of ourselves rather than searching for results.”

Finding that equilibrium at the plate, then, is essential if the Blue Jays are going to level out their run-differential, which should in turn level out their record.

The former is usually necessary for the latter, although there are always aberrations.

Last year, for instance, the Miami Marlins finished 84-78 and earned a wild-card berth despite a staggering minus-57 run-differential, vastly outperforming their expected 75-87 record. And the Arizona Diamondbacks were a minus-15 during their 84-78 regular season – four games better than their expected 80-82 – en route to the World Series.

The San Diego Padres, meanwhile, missed the playoffs at 82-80 despite a plus-104 that suggested they should be 92-70.

In 2021, when the Blue Jays finished one game short of the post-season at 91-71, they were a whopping plus-183, falling eight wins short of their expected total. That gap was a clear signal, a discrepancy caused by a flawed bullpen that in May and June routinely frittered away wins.

“Every team is different. There are always teams that seem to win really close games and are able to take advantage of certain spots,” Schneider said before the game. “It really kind of comes into play as the season unfolds. But you can see kind of where teams are based on what that stat is for sure. …

“There have been wins that we've left on the table, for sure. And, there have been times where we, should have scored more runs than we did, even if you don't win the game. So I think it's a pretty good measuring stick. It's easy to say that we haven't been as consistent on any really phase of it. You look up and you're still 17 wins into the season. Not where we want to be, for sure. But hopefully it turns. I think it says a lot about the guys that they know they're going to be in close games.”

With every little bit of margin in games mattering as a result.