Guerrero Jr.’s goal: How recent MLB stars fared before testing free agency

With Tuesday morning’s news that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not reach a contract extension with the Toronto Blue Jays ahead of his self-imposed deadline, one thing became abundantly clear, if it wasn’t already: The all-star first baseman is confident in himself and his worth.

He underlined that with his comments to reporters in Dunedin, Fla. “At the end of the day, we just didn’t get the agreement,” Guerrero Jr. said through team interpreter Hector Lebron.

“I know my value and I’m going to stick with it.”

Guerrero Jr. now appears set to enter free agency at the end of the 2025 campaign, although he did add that he “won’t close the door” on negotiations “if it’s a realistic offer.”

Accepting a long-term deal from the Blue Jays would have been the safe play for Guerrero Jr., who turns 26 in March. Armed with a lucrative guaranteed contract, he’d likely have been set for his career and wouldn’t have to be concerned with the potential of injury or under-performance this season.

However, Guerrero Jr. is choosing the opposite and is essentially betting on himself. Should he author a strong walk year, he’d stand to make even more in free agency with teams such as the New York Mets, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees reportedly interested in him.

A player foregoing the safer route in such a way is not new in MLB. Several young superstars have travelled a similar path in recent seasons and were rewarded handsomely.

Here’s a closer look at those players who Guerrero Jr. is undoubtedly hoping to follow.

Juan Soto

Walk year (seasonal age): 2024 (25)
Walk-year position: Outfield
Walk-year WAR (FanGraphs): 8.1
Free agent contract: 15 years, $765M with New York Mets

Soto is the most recent example of a player betting on himself, and his case is the gold standard. He turned down a 15-year, $440-million extension offer from the Washington Nationals in 2022, years before he was set to hit the open market. 

The outfielder put his head down, rebounded from a trade and minor dip in production in ’22 and put together a standout walk year with the Yankees last season. Soto hit a career-high 41 home runs, drew 129 walks and posted a .989 OPS to finish third in American League MVP voting. 

He added an exclamation mark to that production with a strong showing in the post-season that included an at-bat for the ages:

Bryce Harper

Walk year (seasonal age): 2018 (25)
Walk-year position: Outfield
Walk-year fWAR: 3.2
Free agent contract: 13 years, $330M with Philadelphia Phillies

Harper was among the most hyped prospects in major-league history after being drafted first overall by the Nationals in 2010. He was named National League Rookie of the Year in 2012, but his production was uneven over the next few seasons until his monster MVP campaign in 2015. 

He regressed immensely the following year but was eventually able to settle himself in time before hitting free agency. His overall production in his 2018 walk year was below what Harper had done in the past, but he did still hit 34 homers, led MLB with 130 walks and posted an .889 OPS and 133 OPS-plus.  

Corey Seager

Walk year (seasonal age): 2021 (27)
Walk-year position: Shortstop
Walk-year fWAR: 3.8
Free agent contract: 10 years, $325M with Texas Rangers.

Seager was the World Series MVP in 2020 but faced adversity in his final season before free agency. The shortstop fractured his right hand in May and missed more than two months of the campaign.

He didn’t seem to be hampered at the plate upon his return, though, and really caught fire in September, hitting .366/.455/.699 with eight home runs in 26 games, setting himself up nicely for a mega deal with the Rangers. 

Manny Machado

Walk year (seasonal age): 2018 (25)
Walk-year position: Shortstop
Walk-year fWAR: 7.2
Free agent contract: 10 years, $300M with San Diego Padres

Machado and Harper were the big free agents in the 2018-19 off-season. Both were considered generational talents and were hitting the market before the age of 26. Machado’s walk year was a little different than his counterpart, though, in that he was traded mid-season to the Los Angeles Dodgers by the Baltimore Orioles.

Despite that, his overall numbers between the two clubs were remarkable that season. Machado collected 35 doubles and 37 home runs while slashing a combined .297/.367/.538. His wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, was a career-high 7.2 and Machado even helped the Dodgers reach the World Series.

Trea Turner

Walk year (seasonal age): 2022 (29)
Walk-year position: Shortstop
Walk-year fWAR: 6.4
Free agent contract: 11 years, $300M with Philadelphia Phillies

You’ll notice a trend in this list. Three of the five players were shortstops during their walk campaigns, which in turn made them more attractive long-term investments to prospective organizations. It’s the most valuable position in the field and Turner was among the best in the league during his season before free agency.

Turner was acquired by the Dodgers ahead of the 2021 trade deadline and, with Seager already in place at shortstop, moved to second base. However, when Seager eventually departed via free agency, Turner moved back to short in ’22 and contributed excellent defence while hitting 21 home runs, stealing 27 bags and posting a 124 OPS-plus.