Guerrero Jr.'s tear puts spotlight on Blue Jays' future as lineup shifts around him

NEW YORK – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s extended tear at the plate isn’t getting its just due. Sure, the past couple of weeks as he’s built a 16-game hit streak, extended Saturday with a first-inning homer to straightaway centre off Carlos Rodon, have been especially torrid. But this is well beyond a short-term hot stretch at the plate. Since a slow and sub-par April, he’s progressively upped the damage he’s caused, posting an OPS of .917 in May, .962 in June and 1.113 in July while keeping the vibes going a few days into August. 

More impressive is that Guerrero keeps stomping opponents even though he’s increasingly isolated in a Toronto Blue Jays lineup first hollowed out by injury and trade, and now giving runway to young players seeking to secure their footing in the majors. For the moment, nothing is cooling him down. “We sit here and do all this planning and (Aaron) Boone is doing the same thing over there,” said Blue Jays manager John Schneider, “and you circle Vlad's name no matter who's sitting behind him, because he's that talented.”

No doubt, which is why imagining how he might fare with the type of supporting cast the even more remarkable Aaron Judge enjoys with the New York Yankees makes for an interesting thought exercise. 

Judge is so absurdly off the charts right now, “it’s comical,” said Schneider, who after watching the giant hammer Jose Berrios for a go-ahead two-run homer in the first, issued the superstar outfielder an intentional walk with two outs and the bases empty in the second.

Before Saturday’s 8-3 loss, Schneider said that during Friday’s 8-5 win, he had joked with pitching coach Pete Walker about giving Judge a free pass as he led off the seventh inning.

This time, the Blue Jays were down 4-1 in the second after Trent Grisham’s two-run homer earlier in the inning and they were trying to keep it there. “I honestly didn't feel like seeing him swing. That was kind of it,” Schneider said of the decision. “We talk about being really careful with him, and I think that's what can lead to mistakes when you're really trying to be very fine. And at that point, it's 4-1. He's in a different category, I think, than anyone else in the league to where he can just flip the script of a game with one swing. Obviously, he's done it twice in this series. So I didn't really feel like watching him swing.”

Fair, and while Berrios was surprised by the call, he understood it – “He’s the hottest hitter in the big-leagues right now, him and Vladdy,” he said – and it worked. After Austin Wells followed with a single, Berros rallied to strike out Gleyber Torres and escape the inning. But with Juan Soto getting on-base roughly 44 per cent of the time in front of him, well, Judge is going to get his pitches to hit, which is why he’s already at 41 homers and 103 RBIs two-thirds of the way through the season.

Pitch around him if you like – that’s what the Blue Jays did in the seventh when he led off with a walk against Ryan Burr and later scored on Anthony Volpe’s base hit – but eventually someone will make you pay.

“It’s pretty amazing,” said Berrios. “But we have to make pitches. If we make pitches we can get them out. If not, I’ll pay the way I did today.”

Added Guerrero: “It’s just impressive. Every time (Judge) gets to the plate, I think he’s going to hit a homer or something. That’s the impression he gives off right now, that he’s going to do something great for his team.”

Now, if the circumstances were reversed, and Guerrero was surrounded by a deeper lineup, would he be similarly productive? That’s an important question for the Blue Jays to really dig into this off-season when they decide how to proceed – extend-and-build-around/trade-and-rebuild/play-it-out – with the four-time all-star.

Worth remembering is that Guerrero is 25, the same age when Judge enjoyed his first monster year in the majors. His peak years are still in front of him and his best season at the plate came in 2021, when he and Marcus Semien finished second and third in AL MVP voting and Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez were fellow all-stars. 

Guerrero is perhaps the most complete he’s been at the plate since then, though he’s not keen to compare. “I try to not to think about what happened a couple of years ago,” he said through interpreter Hector Lebron. “Obviously it was good but all I can tell you is that I feel a lot better than three months ago.”

What does his game look like in two or three years, with more experience and a deeper lineup around him? He can certainly hit the ball as hard as Judge. Can he grow into a patience and discipline akin to that of Judge, too? “He’s pretty damn close right now,” said Schneider. “Teams are definitely taking notice of that. And, I think Vlad has responded in a good way.”

How the remaining two months of the season unfold for Guerrero will be closely watched. He’s made some physical adjustments but he’s also found the right routine in his pre-game work while also taking a consistent plan into his at-bats, hunting a specific pitch and then not missing it once he gets it.

“At the end of the day, it’s all confidence,” he said. “Of course, you’ve got to believe in your talent, but if I feel like I have my confidence, I’m 100 per cent, I know I’m going to be OK.”

There’s time for all that to play out, but the longer Guerrero stays hot, the more intense the conversations around him will be. After his homer in the first, he added a single in the fourth before lashing a 99.6 m.p.h. fastball down the right-field line for a double in the sixth, setting up Alejandro Kirk’s two-run single, their first non-Guerrero hit of the afternoon.

“That’s Vladdy,” said Judge. “It doesn’t matter what pitch it is. You can go back to his first at-bat, where you swing through a curveball, and then all of a sudden next pitch you get another curveball and you hit it out, to 100 m.p.h. off the plate away and you drive it to right field. It’s impressive to see his approach. It looks like he’s never off-balance, never fooled. He’s on every single pitch. I had to kind of rub him on the shoulder when I was taking a walk one of those at-bats, ‘Hey, I’ve got to take a hit away from you, man. You’re getting too many of ‘em.’ So, it’s fun competing against guys like that and watching guys like that.”

Guerrero’s damage wasn’t enough to undo the three two-run homers surrendered by Berrios over five uneven innings because the Yankees are built around Judge, but aren’t Judge alone. The Blue Jays have one more season of Guerrero after this one but they can extend him this winter to ensure there are plenty more, and then work to build around him in the same way.