How baseball's rule changes could affect the Blue Jays

Since changes to baseball's core economics were central to the sport's latest round of CBA talks, the most significant modifications to the on-field product were easily overshadowed.

More than ever, though, there seems to be significant momentum for the implementation of a pitch clock, larger bases, and the ban of infield shift. The goal of such moves would be to speed up the pace of play, grow the running game’s role in modern baseball, and increase the number of hits on balls in play.

The exact effect of these changes is difficult to predict with precision. The pitch clock, for instance, may force some pitchers to change their pre-pitch routines, but there’s no way to know who will be able to adjust with ease and who might struggle to find their way. In the case of the other two proposed changes, though, it’s easier to make a few educated guesses about who'll be disproportionately affected by the alterations to the game.

Here are a few Toronto Blue Jays who look like they might see their game affected by upcoming rule changes.

Larger Bases

What it will do: A change in the bases is designed to reinvigorate the running game around the majors. In 2021 there were 2,213 stolen bases — the lowest number in a full season since 1973 — and larger bases have a chance to bring that number back up.

While it doesn’t sound like making the bases larger would make too much of a difference, this was tested in Triple-A last year with interesting results. Although the beefier bases didn’t increase stealing attempts significantly from 2019, there was a significant bump in efficiency:

The sample here is nearly 4,000 stolen base attempts per season, so this looks like a real effect — and the eye test confirms that the bases have far more surface area to slide into.

If increased stealing success rates come as a result of these bases, it could generate more attempts and an increased emphasis on one of baseball’s most exciting elements.

Possible winner: Teoscar Hernández

The easy answer here would be Bo Bichette or Cavan Biggio as they’ve been the Blue Jays’ best larcenists in recent years. However, that duo is so efficient already (the pair is 56-for-63 since breaking into the majors) that they don’t need much assistance. A more forgiving base might increase their stealing volume, but a player like Hernández has more to gain.

Hernández has always been fast (his sprint speed was 85th percentile in 2021), but he’s struggled to steal bases at a palatable rate. Entering 2021 the outfielder was just 17-for-29 in his MLB career despite his raw speed, and the 172 swipes on his minor-league resume.

Last season, Hernández doubled his career high of six steals, going a solid 12-for-16. Added room for error could allow him to take another step if his athleticism doesn’t diminish too much as he approaches his early 30s.

Possible loser: Jordan Romano

No one on the Blue Jays pitching staff has been easier to run on than Romano in recent years. Since he broke into the major leagues in 2019, the closer has conceded 13 steals in 93 innings. If that doesn’t sound particularly damning, consider that three-fifths of the Blue Jays projected rotation (Ross Stripling, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah) combined for less in 841.2 frames during the same span.

To be fair to Romano, he seemed to find an adjustment as 2021 went on — as outlined by this Twitter thread by SN’s own Chris Black — and didn’t allow a stolen base after July 30 last season. Even so, his history and power profile position him as the kind of pitcher who could be a victim of larger bases. Incoming Kevin Gausman is also a candidate as his 27 steals allowed since 2019 are the 19th most in the majors, but his signature splitter can create scenarios where catching a runner simply isn’t in the cards. A marginal change might not affect him as much as some other pitchers.

Eliminating the shift

What it will do: The concept behind eliminating the shift is simple. Theoretically it creates more hits on balls in play, which boosts offence and the reliance on home runs to be the engine of run scoring. In practice, it’s unclear just how effective it will be, and removing useful — and often creative — strategies from the game seems counterintuitive, especially if there are other remedies for what ails it.

Possible winner: Cavan Biggio

This one is clear cut. Left-handed hitters are shifted significantly more than righties, and Biggio is the only lefty in the Blue Jays lineup as it stands today. The 26-year-old has seen far more of the shift than his teammates since he debuted in 2019, and usually that’s seemed to hurt him.

When Biggio has pulled balls on the ground in his career he’s had almost no success despite his above-average speed, hitting just .144. Although grounders don’t usually generate good offensive outcomes, last season the league hit .236 on them, so it’s fair to assume Biggio might see a few more sneak through if he wasn’t shifted in the vast majority of his at-bats.

On the right-handed side, George Springer has shift rates between 35 and 42 per cent in the last two seasons, which is close to twice what the average right-handed hitter sees, so he might see some benefit as well.

Possible loser: Tim Mayza/Adam Cimber

The projected Blue Jays rotation has one pitcher who could be considered a groundballer in Ryu, but the team has made a concerted effort to shift less when the Korean veteran is on the mound. Last season he had the 13th-lowest shift rate of anyone who pitched to at least 500 batters, and in 2020 only six pitchers (with 200+ PA) had a lower percentage of shifts behind them.

With José Berríos, Gausman, Stripling, and Manoah projecting as flyball-heavy hurlers, the bullpen looks like the place where the Blue Jays might feel the removal of the shift. Since the beginning of 2019, 363 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings. Mayza and Cimber both rank in the top 30 amongst them in groundball rate (22nd and 27th respectively).

That duo was the bridge to Romano in high-leverage situations last season, and each could find their margin for error dwindling with this rule change. That’s especially true of Cimber, who runs an extremely low strikeout rate (6.40 K/9 in 2021) and counts on turning an extremely high percentage of balls in play into outs.