TORONTO — There were occasional moments of transparency from Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro when the Blue Jays’ top executives discussed the state of the team Wednesday.
Speaking from the media conference room at Rogers Centre, Shapiro acknowledged the frustration of a last-place AL East finish while also sharing how happy he is to still see so many Blue Jays fans when he’s out walking his dog.
Atkins spoke about his disappointment in himself and the stress he feels when he thinks about where the season went wrong. “I know no one cares,” he said. Then he added: “I don’t mean that in an insensitive way. I wouldn’t care either, right?”
But when other topics came up, they were deliberately vague. There’s little to be gained by detailing for the competition exactly how much they can spend, for instance. And both executives clearly decided not to wade too deeply into the topic of the work stoppage many are expecting this off-season.
Yet even if Atkins and Shapiro aren’t inclined to say what they really know and think about the possibility of a lockout beginning Dec. 1, they offered enough hints that those of us on the outside can still read between the lines and make some educated guesses about how the Blue Jays will approach this unusual off-season.
First, it’s notable that Atkins said the Blue Jays anticipate a business-as-usual winter — at least to start. The team’s baseball operations department will spend much of October preparing for free-agent and trade talks so that they’re ready to go once the World Series ends and the off-season begins.
Put simply, November still has a chance to be very busy despite the labour uncertainty — maybe even busier than usual.
“We’ll be ready to go from day one,” Atkins said. “We have some work to do, but day one's not here yet. Having said that, we're always, in everything we're doing, preparing for multiple outcomes.”
As of now, the Blue Jays anticipate there will be a Rule 5 Draft, which means they’ll have to add the likes of Nolan Perry and Gage Stanifer to the 40-man roster or leave them exposed to other teams. That’s notable, as the 2021 Rule 5 Draft was cancelled due to that winter’s lockout.
While the Blue Jays are still in the process of finalizing next year’s budget, it doesn’t sound like they’re bracing for a huge shift compared to 2026, when they spent $315 million, according to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource.
“I don't anticipate there being any major fundamental change,” Shapiro said. “My expectation is we'll be in a similar area of support and resources.”
That’s significant considering how the Blue Jays have benefitted from high payrolls backed by owners at Rogers Communications Inc., which also owns Sportsnet.
With George Springer, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, Yimi Garcia, Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho and Jesus Sanchez now fully off the books, that leaves the Blue Jays room to spend on top players. They’ve been motivated spenders in recent off-seasons, both domestically and in Korea and Japan.
Sensing opportunity, baseball agents have noticed this and are happy to have their clients linked to the Blue Jays. Expect more of the same this winter, when big names like Tarik Skubal, Seiya Suzuki and Brandon Lowe lead an otherwise weak free-agent class.
In some cases, the Blue Jays will have real interest and at times that interest may be overstated by an opportunistic agent. All par for the course in today’s game. All that matters is how strong the roster is once the noise subsides and the 2027 team is in place.
As owners push for a salary cap, high-payroll teams like the Blue Jays must be ready to adapt to shifting rules. Both Atkins and Shapiro stressed the importance of staying nimble with that in mind.
Yet for now, the Blue Jays can continue spending without fear that it’ll backfire later, Shapiro said.
“You prepare under the current system, and then you adjust along the way,” Shapiro said. “Any new system adopted, there will be a timeframe for adjustment into that system.”
“I don't think any new system adopted would cause for immediate action,” he added.
In other words, even if spending restrictions intensify under the new agreement, those changes would likely be implemented over a period of years, perhaps with exceptions for deals already in place.
Like most senior team executives, Shapiro is keeping his personal views quiet in deference to the league.
“The process is being led by the commissioner's office,” he said. “We certainly engage in that at the right times, but we'll work to adapt as a front office to any system in place, and be the best we can within that.”
Asked what he’d tell fans about a potential lockout, Shapiro said he still has hope “that things will resolve in a positive way and we won’t have any interruption.”
“I know one thing,” he said. “One thing prevails. The game — baseball — prevails regardless of any owner, regardless of any player, any leader, any negotiator; baseball prevails.”
That’s certainly the hope. In the meantime, the Blue Jays have a busy month of prep ahead of them — and after that, an even busier November.
