How Manoah returning to form opens many doors for Blue Jays

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – The GM Meetings this week quite literally turned into a stomach-turning event, with the baseball industry laying its annual off-season groundwork as a gastro-intestinal virus made the rounds. 

Rough start to the winter then, especially for teams trying to flush away lingering 2023 frustrations like the Toronto Blue Jays, who after tweaking their coaching staff locked in on bolstering an offence that didn’t do enough to leverage the American League’s second-stingiest pitching staff.

Still, while they began to engage on the dozens of players, perhaps as many as 75, that are possible targets for them, perhaps the most intriguing development of the week was when GM Ross Atkins said Tuesday he feels like Alek Manoah “has earned already the right to have a strong leg up” for a spot in the 2024 rotation. “And I feel so good about him returning back to the 2021-22 version of himself that I think that's a really good starting point for him.”

It’s a comment significant on a number of levels and for the moment, let’s assume it’s not just posturing, although that can’t be ruled out. 

First, not needing to add in what’s shaping up as a very competitive market for starting pitching is a good thing, particularly since the Blue Jays are looking for as many as four position players. 

They don’t need to worry about bolstering one end at the expense of another.

Second, the demand for pitching creates opportunity in the trade market and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Blue Jays are among the teams to inquire about Dylan Carlson. Their interest in the switch-hitting outfielder isn’t new as they showed interest in him last winter, too, when Danny Jansen was sought by the Cardinals, who right now are on the hunt for pitching.

The discussions last winter didn’t lead to a trade then, but in-season they swung three deals that brought lefty Genesis Cabrera, leverage righty Jordan Hicks, who is getting strong interest in free agency, and shortstop Paul DeJong north before the trade deadline. Pitching prospects Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, who both finished at triple-A, were the key players that went the other way. 

The Cardinals, however, aren’t alone in the hunt for pitching, and influential agent Scott Boras said Wednesday that there is “really, really a frenzy for pitchers. I've had seven teams tell me they need two pitchers.” 

Not all will be able to meet their needs via free agency and perhaps that creates an opportunity for the Blue Jays.

“I’m sure that we're going to have a lot of teams interested in our pitching depth,” said Atkins.

Given that Manoah, even after a difficult season with an eyebrow-raising finish, will surely pique the interest of other clubs. 

The flip side there, of course, is subtracting from an area of strength when the market for arms seems so wildly competitive, which is why Atkins may not have been posturing about Manoah.

If he’s indeed being set up for a rotation return, then lastly, it’s intriguing the Blue Jays would so early in the winter position Manoah as such, following such a jarring season in which he pitched to a 5.87 ERA in 87.1 innings over 19 starts, allowing 6.1 walks per nine innings with a WHIP of 1.740, while getting optioned twice. 

Beyond that, there was the unusual series of events after the second option, when Manoah underwent several medical tests and ended up on triple-A Buffalo’s temporarily inactive list, eventually getting platelet-rich plasma injections in his right arm that ended his season. Put all together, there’s plenty to cloud the view of what Manoah can be relied upon to offer in 2024, in spite of how talented and competitive he is. 

At the same time, the Blue Jays went down this road a year ago with Yusei Kikuchi, a wild-card after a largely lost 2022 season who was given a pathway to reclaim a rotation spot and did, to great success. 

They may very well be banking on a repeat with Manoah next spring.

“His body of work, meaning what he’s done over his career,” Atkins, responding to questions via email Thursday due to the circulating virus, replied when asked how Manoah has re-earned the trust to have a leg up for a rotation spot. “The start to his off-season and his mindset right now are encouraging. As far as other options, Bowden Francis certainly fits as someone we could consider for the rotation, and we’re excited about what Mitch White and Wes Parsons did over the second half of the season in triple-A and glad to have them on our roster.”

White, added back to the 40-man roster Monday, is out of options so he’ll have to make the big-league club out of spring training or be passed through waivers if he doesn’t. Parsons, who was roughed up in the season finale in his lone Blue Jays appearance this year, does have an option and could be part of the club’s depth. 

Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, described by a veteran agent who doesn’t represent him as “a total beast,” is on the horizon while Chad Dallas, who impressed between high-A Vancouver and double-A New Hampshire, is pushing upwards, too.

Sounds deep, but the Blue Jays would be unwise to gamble on enjoying the same relative health they had this year since depth can ebb quickly. To that end, Atkins noted that the Blue Jays will be “in that (pitching) market” and while they’ve engaged one of the top arms available in Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it’s tough to really assess what being in the market for pitching actually means for them.

In some ways, a swingman would be ideal, like free agents Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo perhaps, although the latter is seeking to start exclusively. 

“Always good to have depth,” Atkins said via email of the Blue Jays’ approach to the starter market. “There are creative ways to have starting options on your major-league team. Also excited about some starters we’ll have in triple-A. Having said that our focus is on adding to the position-player group.”

Counting on a return to form for Manoah certainly makes that much easier.