Identifying the teams most likely to pursue Blue Jays’ catchers via trade

LAS VEGAS — Perhaps the biggest question facing the Blue Jays this off-season is whether they’ll trade from their enviable catching depth to address other needs.

Thanks to Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno, Blue Jays catchers generated an MLB-best 7.3 WAR in 2022. They combined to lead MLB in batting average (.273) and on-base percentage (.351) while hitting 34 home runs – remarkable production when you consider league average at the position was a .226 average and .295 on-base percentage.

Clearly, the Blue Jays could simply run it back in 2023. While it’s not the most efficient way to use those three players, catcher is a high-attrition position and Moreno worked out in the infield and outfield late this past season to build his versatility. There are real scenarios where all three contribute to the Blue Jays in 2023 and beyond.

At the same time, trades are clearly possible, too. Rebuilding teams might covet Moreno’s upside and team control. Win-now teams might target Jansen, now two years away from free agency, for his power bat and catching acumen. And who wouldn’t want Kirk, who walks more than he strikes out while offering impressive power?

While the Blue Jays aren’t about to force a trade, it’s a possibility the club is openly exploring. Some at the GM Meetings see real scenarios where no team meets the Blue Jays’ price for any of the three while others believe an off-season deal is likely.

“We’re in a position where we do not have to do that to make our team better,” GM Ross Atkins said. “Their potential versatility ­– more on the Moreno side than with the other two – is a positive for us.”

Starting with the least likely trade matches and working our way toward legitimate fits, here’s a speculative look at how likely the Blue Jays’ 29 rivals match up on a trade for a catcher…

No chance whatsoever

Not only are the Orioles a division rival, they already have a franchise catcher in place in Adley Rutschman.

Established catchers already in place

Other teams that appear set behind the plate include the New York Yankees (Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka), Kansas City (Sal Perez), the Chicago White Sox (Yasmani Grandal and Seby Zavala), Houston (Martin Maldonado), Philadelphia (J.T. Realmuto), Atlanta (William Contreras and Travis d’Arnaud), the Los Angeles Dodgers (Will Smith) and Oakland (Sean Murphy).

It would be a stretch to call the Mariners’ Cal Raleigh and the Rangers’ Jonah Heim established, but both were productive in 2022, generating 4.2 and 2.8 WAR, respectively. As such, both teams can feel good about their catching entering the off-season.

Unlikely AL East pairings

While the Red Sox and Rays could both be seeking upgrades behind the plate, an in-division trade of this scale would be challenging.

Promising catchers already in place

While the Marlins could improve on the combination of Nick Fortes and Jacob Stallings, Fortes likely showed enough as a rookie to earn further chances. Similarly, the Mets have a young catching prospect of their own in Francisco Alvarez and the Nationals graduated Keibert Ruiz to the majors with some success this past season. Along those lines, Tyler Stephenson of the Reds appears to have earned a longer look in Cincinnati and Logan O'Hoppe seems ready for an extended chance alongside Max Stassi in Anaheim.

The first 408 plate appearances of Joey Bart's big-league career have been underwhelming, with an OPS+ of just 81. At the same time, the Giants may prefer to give the 25-year-old former top prospect more chances.

The fit works – but maybe just in one direction

Cubs

With Willson Contreras hitting free agency, the Cubs could look to bolster a catching tandem that now features Yan Gomes and P.J. Higgins. Only, what would come back? Ian Happ's appealing, but he's just one year away from free agency so he’d likely have less trade value than all three Jays catchers. A third team might be needed to make this work.

Rockies

The Rockies are always hard to predict, but they could stand to upgrade over the duo of Elias Diaz and Brian Serven, who combined for an MLB-worst -1.4 WAR at the position this past season. As with the Cubs, though, it’s less clear what would come back the Blue Jays’ way to even the scales.

Diamondbacks

With Daulton Varsho moving to the outfield, the Diamondbacks could use a catcher to pair with Carson Kelly and they have more than their share of left-handed hitting outfielders and young pitching. But would Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy be enough to get the Blue Jays' attention?

Tigers

Since the versatile Eric Haase can move around the diamond, adding a second catcher to the mix may appeal to the Tigers, who look like a fit for Moreno. Whether the Blue Jays want what the Tigers can offer in return is another question.

The fit works – maybe in both directions

Twins

Once Gary Sanchez hit free agency, Ryan Jeffers jumped up the Twins’ depth chart to become their primary catcher. Speaking in general terms, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey expressed optimism in Jeffers but made it clear the club will be seeking further help.

“We’re going to need to add, whether it’s through free agency or trade,” Falvey said. “Catcher will be a definite free agent or trade focus for us.”

The left-handed hitting Max Kepler is under contract for up to two more seasons and is a player who could appeal to the Blue Jays. That lines up with Jansen’s timeline to free agency, but whether either side considers that structure appealing is an open question.

Padres

Though the Padres have Austin Nola, they have room for a second quality catcher. Meanwhile, Trent Grisham could appeal to Toronto given his defensive skills and left-handed bat. A structure of Jansen for Grisham could appeal to San Diego, but that’s a lot for the Blue Jays to surrender (Jansen had an OPS of .855 compared to Grisham's .626 mark).

Guardians

The emergence of Canadian Bo Naylor gives Cleveland an in-house option, but it's hard not to wonder about a team that's scouted Kirk heavily in the past. Or, what about pairing Jansen with Naylor for two years while the rookie adjusts? Jansen’s power would be a welcome addition to a Cleveland lineup full of contact hitters. And the Guardians have young pitching, which the Blue Jays are always seeking. But maybe the Guardians play it safe and bring back Austin Hedges and former Blue Jay Luke Maile.

Speaking in general terms, club president Chris Antonetti said the Guardians are staying flexible.

“We’re open at that position,” Antonetti said. “We’re really excited about the future of what Bo can become and develop into. Luke did a tremendous job for us this year, so we go into the off-season having some options but at the same time if there are ways in which we can improve, we’ll look to do those.”

Pirates

With a catching tandem of Jason Delay and former Blue Jays backup Tyler Heineman, the Pirates need an upgrade. And in Bryan Reynolds the Pirates have exactly the kind of trade chip the Blue Jays are likely to covet – a switch-hitting centre fielder with three years of team control remaining and a lifetime OPS+ of 127.

A rebuilding team, the Pirates could accept any growing pains that might come with Moreno. But six years of Moreno would likely be too much to give up for three years of Reynolds, creating a complicated balancing act for the Blue Jays and their counterparts in Pittsburgh, former Toronto executives Ben Cherington and Steve Sanders.

Brewers

As the off-season begins, the Brewers' big-league catching depth consists of Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson – far from ideal. Owner Mark Attanasio has hinted that this could be a busy winter for the Brewers who have appealing pitching in the form of Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby, among others.

Cardinals

On paper, this may be the best fit of all. The retirement of Yadier Molina leaves the Cardinals without a starting catcher for the first time in years. As Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak put it, the good news is they know what they need. The bad news is, they don’t know how they’ll get it yet.

“Understand that like Yadi was, first of all a high-baseball-IQ defensive savant,” Mozeliak said. “You have to understand that's not going to be the easiest thing to replace. Having said that, though, what we're trying to look at is 'how do we replace him and is there some opportunity for a little more offence in that slot?' It's not a position we've had to go shop at for 21 years. You accept that defence is going to go probably a step backwards (but) there could be some potential for some offensive upside.”

Mozeliak said the Cardinals are exploring trades and free agency as they seek a replacement for Molina. While they’d prefer not to trade from their big-league roster, they’re open to the possibility if the return is great enough.

That’s where things could get interesting. In theory, the Cardinals have enough outfielders to consider parting with someone like Dylan Carlson or Lars Nootbar, both of whom would likely have real appeal to the Blue Jays.

A switch-hitting centre fielder, Carlson's under team control for four more seasons. Offensively, he's been slightly above average to this point in his career (104 OPS+) but at 24 years old, there's still time to improve.

Meanwhile, his teammate, Lars Nootbar, is perhaps even more intriguing. The left-handed hitting 25-year-old played more often in right field, but he did play some centre and his offensive numbers were extremely impressive. In 108 games, he hit 14 home runs with an elite walk rate (14.7 per cent), an above-average barrel rate (12.1 per cent) and a better-than-average strikeout rate (20.5 per cent). Could a structure around Nootbar and Kirk work for both teams? Presumably, Jansen would have some appeal to St. Louis, too.

For now, this is speculative rather than certain and maybe it’ll stay that way. But if the oddsmakers here in Vegas were looking to set odds, they’d probably start with St. Louis.