'I'm thinking crazy busy': MLB execs expecting major moves at Winter Meetings

SAN DIEGO – As the baseball world descended upon the Manchester Grand Hyatt Sunday and MLB’s Winter Meetings resumed in person for the first time in three years, many predictions circulated in anticipation of the week to come.

“I’m thinking crazy busy,” one executive guessed.

“Normal potentially?” another club official countered.

“It’ll live up to the hype,” one agent said.

“I see (Aaron) Judge getting done,” added another.

For what it’s worth, most predictions were bullish – though that optimism matters little until deals are completed. In the meantime, we can still attempt to make sense of near-misses, potential fits and ongoing discussions. On that front, the Toronto Blue Jays’ search for pitching bears watching as the meetings progress.

Before Kyle Gibson agreed to terms with the Baltimore Orioles on a one-year deal, the Blue Jays were involved until the end, according to one source. That's the second time the Blue Jays have pushed to land Gibson, as they also pursued him following the 2019 season only to see him sign in Texas.

This past season, the 35-year-old posted a 5.05 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 167.2 innings with the Philadelphia Phillies – serviceable yet far from overpowering. Of course, shopping for Gibson wouldn’t have cut the Blue Jays off from bigger possibilities, like some high-impact trade candidates or Justin Verlander, who reportedly agreed to terms with the Mets on a two-year, $86 million deal Monday (the Blue Jays have had interest in Verlander in each of the last two winters, but were generally viewed as a longshot to sign the three-time Cy Young winner this time).

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays don’t appear to be a leading suitor for Chris Bassitt at this stage. The right-hander’s likely the top pitcher available beyond Verlander and Carlos Rodon, but he’s seemingly positioned to land a four-year deal at a substantial AAV.

Plus, Bassitt declined a qualifying offer, complicating matters for interested teams. The Blue Jays, for instance, would have to surrender their second-highest 2023 draft pick and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500,000 – a significant penalty, though one that can be accounted for.

At the right price, any team would have interest in Bassitt, who posted a 3.42 ERA over the course of 30 starts for the New York Mets last year, and all it takes is one text message for things to change. So far, though, that particular fit doesn’t look to be emerging with the Blue Jays.

One way or another, the Blue Jays intend to add at least one pitcher to the rotation this winter. With Ross Stripling now a free agent, there’s a clear opening behind Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and Jose Berrios.

As expected, the Blue Jays have interest in retaining Stripling, but he’ll have plenty of options after posting a 3.01 ERA in 134.1 innings this past season. By way of context, Zach Eflin’s three-year, $40-million deal with the Tampa Bay Rays looks like a reasonable comp for Stripling considering Eflin posted a 4.04 ERA in 75.2 innings with comparable strikeout and walk numbers.

“Starting pitcher is really the only one where I would put a definite on it,” GM Ross Atkins said last week in conversation with the Toronto chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America. “But at the same time, we may find a different way to think about that. If I had to put a definite on one role, that would be the one. But, the way we're thinking about it is 'what's the best way to prevent runs?' Defence is involved there (also).”

So, too, is the bullpen, and the Blue Jays could get creative by further strengthening their relief pitching with another impact arm. That’s not a necessity, though, and some within the industry describe the Blue Jays as less aggressive on relievers following the acquisition of Erik Swanson.

Perhaps simpler? Add a starting pitcher or two. And for now, there’s still plenty of selection to choose from as the industry awaits the next big move of the winter.