Kikuchi flashes top-of-trade market stuff before Yankees pile on Blue Jays

TORONTO — These next 4½ weeks ahead of the July 30 trade deadline are really about portfolio management for the Toronto Blue Jays, wins and losses as consequential to their strategic handling of assets as they are to their place in the standings. 

To wit, the stock-watch days are on for their pending free agents, with Yusei Kikuchi’s five-plus innings of four-run, seven-strikeout ball in a 16-5 thrashing Friday from the playoff-bound New York Yankees the type of outing teams on the hunt for pitching will definitely dig into.

The 33-year-old lefty was perfect through the first three innings, watched Juan Soto score while Aaron Judge cleverly forced a rundown in his second time through and then coughed up a 3-1 lead on a blooper, a bleeder and a three-run Soto blast as the order turned over a third time. 

Still, Kikuchi had his fastball sitting at 96.4 m.p.h. and dialled it up to 98, got whiffs on 15 of the 38 swings against him, and generally showed off the type of stuff that plays in October. With better defensive execution on that rundown in the fourth and a touch of luck in the fateful sixth ahead of the Soto homer, or perhaps a few more runs from the Blue Jays during a not-fully-leveraged fifth, it’s a much happier ending for him, if not his under-the-gun club.

“I just hate to waste an outing like that,” lamented manager John Schneider. “He had a really good mix and wasn't predictable and his stuff is good enough to get guys out when he is predictable. And I thought him and (Danny Jansen) had a great back-and-forth game, changeup was good, curveball was good, slider was good. He had really, really good stuff and it sucks that his night was cut short and then the game got out of hand.”

George Springer’s RBI single opened the scoring in the first, and after Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s run-scoring fielder’s choice in the fifth, a Springer hit-by-pitch with the bases loaded (which eventually forced the right-fielder from the game, X-Rays were negative) brought home another run. Guerrero was then tagged out at home trying to score on a wild pitch and Daulton Varsho struck out to end the inning, while subsequent solo shots by Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Guerrero weren’t enough to counter the Yankees’ relentless add-on runs before a crowd of 34,791.

“It's obviously a rough stretch,” Kikuchi said through interpreter Yusuke Oshima. “All you can do is go game at a time and everyone come in prepared, including myself, focused on trying to get that last wild-card spot right now.”

Now, Ross Atkins insisted Thursday that the Blue Jays’ focus remains on precisely that in the coming weeks, but at 37-44 and 7.5 games out of the third-wild-card spot, only a sustained run will avert some degree of selloff. He conceded that “our pro scouting department and all of baseball operations spend a lot of time understanding the entire industry in any way that we need to move,” although he also tried to downplay that by saying a holistic outlook was the team’s standard practice.

Standard or not, they’re doing the work to be ready when teams come calling, and Kikuchi should be front and centre in a market that could very well be light on starting pitching, especially with the type of stuff he features.

“Just based on my contract status, obviously try not to think about it, but I still think about it,” he said. “You can't control what's going to happen in the future. All you can do is think about the next game and prepare for the next game.

As a rental, Kikuchi won’t be as costly as perhaps Garrett Crochet or Erick Fedde, two starters on the definitely selling White Sox who come with term beyond this summer, but the Blue Jays should still be able to do relatively well for him.

Each season and each trade market is different, of course, but looking at four somewhat comparable deals for rental starters from last year’s deadline help frame what a return could look like.

• The White Sox sent Lucas Giolito, who had a bWAR of 2.9 at the time of the deal, reliever Reynaldo Lopez (0.6 bWAR) to the Los Angeles Angels for catcher Edgar Quero, ranked 90^th on Baseball America’s top-100, and lefty Ky Bush, currently No. 12 among White Sox prospects.

• The St. Louis Cardinals sent Jordan Montgomery, carrying a bWAR of 2.1 at the time, and reliever Chris Stratton to the Texas Rangers for starter Tekoah Roby, currently No. 2 in the Cards system, infielder Thomas Saggese, their No. 3, plus serviceable lefty reliever John King.

• The Detroit Tigers sent Michael Lorenzen, carrying a 2.1 bWAR, to the Philadelphia Phillies for second baseman Hao-Yu Lee, who has a .900 OPS at double-A and is No. 12 in Detroit’s system.

• The Cardinals sent Jack Flaherty, sitting at 1.4 bWAR at the time, to the Baltimore Orioles for lefty starter Drew Rom, infielder Cesar Prieto, No. 17 in the St. Louis system, and 20-year-old righty Zack Showalter, the club’s No. 23.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder in these deals and the Blue Jays will have to weigh any trade offer against extending Kikuchi a qualifying offer and ensuring draft-pick compensation should he depart as a free agent. 

But the better Kikuchi is pitching, the better the potential return for the Blue Jays if, or increasingly when, they begin to rebalance their big-league portfolio.