Looking at players trending towards election to Baseball Hall of Fame

Over the last few cycles of Baseball Hall of Fame balloting, the BBWAA electorate has not been a charitable bunch. Only two players — David Ortiz and Scott Rolen — have been elected to the Hall by the writers since 2021. And even they just barely made it past the 75 per cent threshold necessary for election, as Ortiz received votes from 77.9 per cent of members, while Rolen earned 76.3 per cent in his sixth year on the ballot.

But 2024 could break the trend. It appears likely that BBWAA members will elect at least two players to the Hall this winter, and possibly as many as four. We can say that thanks to the diligent and indispensable work of Ryan Thibodaux and his Hall of Fame tracking team, who have been tabulating public & anonymous ballots ahead of voting results being announced on January 23.

As of January 21, Thibodaux and co. had logged 191 ballots in their 2024 Hall of Fame tracker, representing an estimated 49.7 per cent of the electorate. Utilizing their data, let’s look at who’s trending to get a plaque, who’s falling short but remaining on the ballot, and who’s in danger of dropping off.

Trending towards election

Adrian Beltre (99% of known ballots)
Joe Mauer (83.2%)
Todd Helton (82.2%)
Billy Wagner (78.5%)

Beltre is a slam dunk to be elected, as his case appeals to voters that lean both old-school and new. He has the counting stats (over 3,000 hits and 450 homers), the advanced metrics (93.5 career bWAR and 200 career DRS), the hardware (five Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers), and the longevity (nearly 3,000 games played over 21 MLB seasons). Add in a lovable reputation as a tireless worker, respected teammate, and occasionally goofy fun-seeker, and it would’ve been a shock to see Beltre miss election in his first year of eligibility.

Mauer’s strong support, however, comes as something of a surprise. It’s not about his case, which is exceptional. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric ranks Mauer as the seventh-most deserving catcher all-time. No catcher in the game’s history has won as many batting titles; Mauer’s 55.2 career WAR ranks 9th all-time among catchers; he hit .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+ over a nearly 2,000-game career.

It’s about the traditional voting trends of the electorate. Only 10 catchers have been elected to the hall by the BBWAA, and just two of them — Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez — made it in during their first year on the ballot.

The position’s considerable physical and mental stress — which results in constant wear-and-tear, games missed due to injury, and playing time restrictions imposed by clubs trying to keep their most important defenders as fresh as possible — naturally leads to offensive output that pales in comparison to players at less demanding positions. But that fact hasn’t resonated with BBWAA voters, who have traditionally held catchers to a much higher offensive bar than they ought to be.

And yet, here Mauer is, appearing on over 80 per cent of known ballots. Maybe Mauer’s sterling reputation was enough to persuade the old guard to come around to his case. Maybe the makeup of the electorate is simply shifting younger and more open-minded. Either way, Mauer appears headed for Cooperstown — an inevitable and deserved result.

Helton, meanwhile, has seen a steady increase in support over his five years on the ballot and missed election by only 11 votes last year. He’s appeared on over 90 per cent of first-time voters’ ballots so far and will need continued help from those not submitting theirs to the Tracker to get over the finish line.

It appears it’s only a matter of time — as it was in the cases of Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, and Rolen — before enough of the electorate comes around on Helton. It’s always been difficult to rectify how David Ortiz and Fred McGriff can be hall-of-famers while Helton can’t. And this could be the year his name is finally called.

Wagner, too, is progressively gaining support as time wears on and is well positioned to be only the ninth reliever elected to the hall. After falling 27 votes shy of the 75 per cent threshold last year, Wagner’s so far netted six votes from returning voters, and been selected by 12 first-time voters, in his ninth year on the ballot.

He may ultimately fall just short and need one final push in 2025 — his final year of ballot eligibility. But if Trevor Hoffman’s a hall-of-famer, a dominant reliever like Wagner who has a strikeout rate 7.4 points higher and an ERA more than a half-run lower over a 900-inning career ought to be, too. And voters seem to slowly but surely be coming around to that.

Trending to miss election and remain on the ballot

Andruw Jones (70.7% of known ballots)
Carlos Beltran (66.5%)
Chase Utley (41.4%)
Alex Rodriguez (39.3%)
Manny Ramirez (35.1%)
Bobby Abreu (19.4%)
Andy Pettitte (15.2%)
Jimmy Rollins (15.2%)
Omar Vizquel (10.5%)
Mark Buehrle (7.9%)
Francisco Rodriguez (6.8%)
David Wright (6.8%)
Torii Hunter (4.7%)

This collection of players appears likely to fall short of the induction threshold but remain up for consideration next winter as a result of appearing on at least five per cent of ballots.

The most conspicuous among them are Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez. Their statistical cases are certainly compelling, but a significant portion of voters continue refusing to vote for them due to their ties to performance-enhancing drug use. Both would need dramatic vote share increases to even get close to election — and with each passing year, that result appears more and more unlikely. Particularly for Ramirez, who is in his eighth year on the ballot.

The perpetually underappreciated Andrew Jones, meanwhile, has gained support over the last several cycles as the ballot clog has eased. But it appears unlikely that 2024 will be his year. Carlos Beltran has also increased favour in his second year of consideration, netting 16 votes from returning voters. Some are likely still punishing him for his involvement in Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal. But the nine-time all-star still has eight years of runway remaining to continue improving his vote share.

Six-time all-star and four-time Silver Slugger Chase Utley’s made a strong debut, appearing on over 40 per cent of known ballots. His borderline case will be an interesting one to watch in the coming cycles. David Wright is also tracking to survive in his first year of consideration, although he has substantial ground to make up.

Hunter, meanwhile, keeps hanging around just north of the five per cent threshold required to remain on the ballot. He appeared on 5.3 per cent of ballots in 2022 and 6.9 per cent in 2023. He’ll need to pick up 11 votes on unknown ballots in order to skate by again.

Trending to miss election and drop off the ballot

Gary Sheffield (74.3% of known ballots)
Jose Bautista (1.6%)
Bartolo Colon (0.5%)
Matt Holliday (0.5%)
Victor Martinez (0.5%)
Adrian Gonzalez (0%)
Brandon Phillips (0%)
Jose Reyes (0%)
James Shields (0%)

Sheffield’s case is the most interesting here, as he’s in his tenth and final year on the ballot. He’s netted 14 votes from returning voters, plus 10 from first-timers, which has him tracking just beneath the induction threshold on the 49 per cent of ballots we’ve seen so far. He’ll need to be included on 76 per cent of remaining ballots to be inducted.

But, traditionally, a large portion of voters who don’t reveal their ballots have not been in favour of Sheffield’s case. This segment of the electorate tends to be older, conservative, and more prone to punish players connected to performance enhancing drug use, as Sheffield was during the 2004 BALCO scandal.

That’s why it appears likely Sheffield will miss induction once again and be left with one last chance for consideration by the Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee which will next consider candidates to have passed through the BBWAA process in 2025. That committee will consist of 16 people, including Hall of famers, MLB executives, and veteran media members, as appointed by the Hall of Fame’s board of directors.

Meanwhile, there are no surprises among the players trending towards elimination from the ballot in their first year of eligibility: Jose Bautista, Bartolo Colon, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Victor Martinez, Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, and James Shields.