Looking at how the Blue Jays can address their need for a back-end starter

It may not happen as soon as anyone would like, but eventually, MLB’s labour dispute will reach a resolution and the sport will move ahead with the 2022 regular season — or at least what’s left of it. The timeline will be rapid, with shotgun spring training camps in Florida and Arizona likely opening within a week of a new CBA being ratified, and opening day looming somewhere three-to-four weeks beyond that.

That will leave front offices scrambling to fill big-league roster holes as soon as MLB’s transaction freeze is lifted, likely spurring the kind of wild activity that invigorated the sport last November. And the Toronto Blue Jays will be right in the thick of it, seeking to put the finishing touches on a win-now team being constructed to surpass the 91-win mark it achieved last season.

With that in mind, this is the final installment of a three-part series looking at the biggest roster needs remaining for the 2022 Blue Jays and how the club’s front office could go about addressing them on the other side of the lockout. Previously, we looked at an infield upgrade and bullpen reinforcements. Today, we turn our attention to the starting rotation.

All ZIPS projections via FanGraphs.
All arbitration projections via MLB Trade Rumors.

Where things stand (ZIPS projections)

Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios provide front-line track records and big-game experience atop the staff. Hyun Jin Ryu is one of the game’s best control-and-command artists and only a year removed from back-to-back seasons as a Cy Young finalist. Alek Manoah is an electrifying young talent with big-time stuff and an even bigger mound presence. ZIPS projects all four to log substantial innings at an ERA south of 4.00 while producing more than 11 WAR collectively. Any of them would be an opening day starter on at least a half-dozen other teams across MLB.

It’s the best Blue Jays rotation to open a season in years. Lest we forget that over the first two weeks of the 2020 season Toronto was giving starts to Matt Shoemaker, Trent Thornton, Tanner Roark, and Chase Anderson. Less than two years later, a lot’s changed.

But that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays can stop looking to add. All that front-end talent will do most of the heavy innings lifting for a team with aspirations of winning its division, but it’s the back-end types who will fill in the gaps and help carry the load when one of those four is inevitably unavailable. The 2021 Blue Jays don’t get as far as they did without Steven Matz logging 150.2 innings of 3.82-ERA ball or Ross Stripling working to a 4.69 ERA over 19 starts, including a 3.67 mark over his final 13 after a rocky start to the season.

With Matz a St. Louis Cardinal, Stripling’s currently positioned to fill the fifth spot in Toronto’s rotation, which would be perfectly fine should the four starters ahead of him remain healthy and make 32 starts apiece. But the chance of that happening is next to nil, particularly considering the Blue Jays intend to be more mindful of Ryu’s workload coming off a down 2021 spent battling various nagging ailments, and that Manoah’s 111.2 regular-season innings last year were a career-high by a mile.

There’s no reliable way to predict pitcher health. But there is a way to insulate oneself against the harsher realities of it — building depth. And not merely adequate depth. A litany of depth. A borderline surplus, if such a thing even exists over a six-month grind.

So, if there’s opportunity to add an established, stable-floor, back-end starter to the mix, likely bumping Stripling to the swingman role he’s filled capably throughout his career in the process, the club would be better off for it. Even a top-three AL rotation like Toronto’s can stand to get a little bit deeper.

Internal options (ZIPS projections)

Either could fulfill his potential and carry a big-league rotation job. Either could continue experiencing adversity at the game’s highest level and struggle to an inflated ERA. The Blue Jays simply don’t have the luxury of betting on getting the former rather than the latter in a contending year, which is why both Kay and Hatch are best suited to begin the season providing rotation depth from triple-A.

Same goes for Bowden Francis and Zach Logue, two advanced minor-leaguers with 40-man roster spots and the ability to make a non-disastrous spot start if needed. Both are likely to make their MLB debuts in 2022 and capable of developing into back-end starters. But the Blue Jays need to fill the No. 5 and 6 spots on their starter depth chart with options that provide more certainty than that.

Of course, it would take only a couple of untimely spring training injuries to thrust any of these five into a rotation role to open the season. And all of them are almost a certainty to make a start for the Blue Jays at some point in 2022. Injuries and underperformance happen; double-headers occur. But in a perfect world, these five form a strong depth group at triple-A, waiting on call to be promoted if and when disaster strikes.

Free agent options (ZIPS projections)

Thanks to one of the most overpowering fastballs thrown by any MLB starter and a slider that challenges the laws of physics, the 29-year-old still finished with a 183 ERA+ and absurd 34.6 per cent strikeout rate over the 132.2 innings he pitched. He’s undoubtedly the best starter still available on the open market. But his injury history and rapid disintegration over 2021’s back-half leaves a wide range of possibilities as to the contract value he’ll garner.

Is there a medium-to-long-term deal out there for Rodon? That would all but certainly remove the Blue Jays from the bidding. But if he’s acquirable on a short-term, high-AAV, value-reestablishing deal? Well, maybe that would alleviate enough risk to make Rodon an option.

You know what a great way to upgrade the back end of your rotation is? Upgrade the front end. Domino everyone else down a spot on the depth chart and… presto! Suddenly Alek Manoah’s the best No. 5 across the league. And Ross Stripling’s logging quality bulk outings from your bullpen, ready to backfill any rotation vacancies at a moment’s notice.

Of course, this is perfect world stuff. Considering the always substantial acquisition cost, a splashy move to acquire another frontline starter is unlikely from a franchise that’s already netted two over the last eight months in Berrios and Gausman.

But that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays should shut themselves off from making offers to the Oakland A’s for Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, or Frankie Montas should any of them be up for grabs. Same goes for the Cincinnati Reds and Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle. It seems extremely possible — likely in Oakland’s case — that some of those arms could be on the move prior to opening day. And if the Blue Jays can stomach the high price it’d take to acquire one of them, there are plenty of reasons to give it very serious thought.

Because what if Berrios strains an oblique? What if a comebacker fractures Gausman’s arm? What if Ryu’s down 2021 wasn’t so much an aberration as the beginning of a sudden decline? What if the league adjusts to Manoah in his second season? The loss of any of those four would create a vast void of quality innings and severely downgrade Toronto’s win expectancy.

But adding Manaea’s next-level changeup or Bassitt’s barrel-avoiding, six-pitch mix to the rotation would provide valuable insurance against such a disaster. The same then goes for the lightning-armed Castillo, who would likely drive the highest acquisition cost of the group. What’s the downside? Ending up with a surplus of top-shelf pitching? Gee, in that case, you might just win a World Series.

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