Manoah, Guerrero Jr. and Blue Jays simply can't find consistency

WASHINGTON — Three innings in on Sunday, you would’ve sworn the year was 2021.

Alek Manoah was convicted and resilient, working his way out of some hairy situations with timely outs while sitting in the mid-90’s and breaking off filthy sliders that were quickly clipped by Pitching Ninja. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was confident and dangerous, shooting a 106-m.p.h. liner the opposite way for a first-inning single, before coming back up an inning later, hitting a majestic, 416-foot grand slam, and taking half a minute to round the bases.

But this article is not being written in June 2021. It is nearly June 2024, and although those two star performers from years past can still show flashes of brilliance, they also haven’t looked consistently like that version of themselves in some time.

So, in his next two trips, Guerrero struck out chasing a full-count pitch well outside the zone with a runner on before beating a 2-1 fastball right into the ground for an out. And in Manoah’s fourth inning, he missed sporadically both off the plate and on, running up his pitch count while allowing five runs on four hits and a walk. He did not return for the fifth in his MLB season debut.

Ultimately, the Blue Jays lost, 11-8, to the Washington Nationals in a chaotic, back-and-forth game because no one who took the mound for them pitched particularly well, including the four relievers that entered after Manoah and each allowed a run. First Nate Pearson, then Genesis Cabrera, next Erik Swanson, and finally Zach Pop.

Swanson gave up the biggest blow — a go-ahead, two-run homer by Eddie Rosario off a splitter in the seventh. Swanson’s splitter has been getting hammered all year, with Rosario’s drive the seventh extra-base hit — four of them homers — he’s allowed on what’s typically his best pitch. Swanson allowed only five homers combined off his splitter in 221.1 career innings entering this season.

The issue appears to be twofold. Not only is Swanson leaving his splitter in bad areas of the zone, but Blue Jays manager John Schneider has publicly ruminated about the possibility he’s tipping pitches. Giving hitters a pitch they know is coming over a fat part of the plate is a pretty bad combination for success as a reliever. That’s why Swanson’s allowed runs in six of his eight appearances this season with only four strikeouts over six innings.

Of course, it’s not only him. The Blue Jays bullpen has been taking on water for a week, as Chad Green’s IL stint and Yimi Garcia’s unavailability due to a lower back issue has caused knock-on impacts for other relievers, forcing them into heavy workloads, sub-optimal matchups, and leverage spots they wouldn’t enter if all hands were on deck.

“You still trust the guys to get the outs we're expecting them to get. But it's been a tough stretch for those guys, for sure,” Schneider said. “Got to keep plugging along, though. Hopefully we get everyone back to full health. But, yeah, been a little bit of a tough stretch.”

Toronto’s bullpen entered Sunday with MLB’s fourth-highest ERA (5.30), second-highest FIP (5.25) and sixth-lowest K-BB% (9.2). And those numbers will not improve after the Nationals got to them for four runs on five hits and a walk with two strikeouts over four innings. The Blue Jays bullpen has now allowed 22 homers on the season — tied for the most in MLB with the Rays, whose frequent use of openers skews their relief stats.

So, that’s a concern. The Blue Jays can’t afford to cough up so many runs on a rare day their offence is doing damage. But there do not appear to be straightforward solutions internally until Green and Garcia are healthy. Just as the Blue Jays haven’t been able to find solutions for the inconsistencies of Manoah and Guerrero, whose day reflected the uncertain place their careers have arrived.

Start with Manoah, who made his first big-league start in nine months following a winter’s worth of work on his body, mindset, delivery, and everything in between.

Taking the mound following an 85-minute weather delay, Manoah’s first inning was an adventure. First, Nationals leadoff hitter Jacob Young reached on a Bo Bichette throwing error after Manoah induced a routine groundball with his second pitch of the ballgame. Manoah then struck out CJ Abrams with a nasty slider, allowed a Luis Garcia Jr. groundball single on a pitch beneath the zone, caught Nick Senzel looking at an elevated fastball, and walked Jesse Winker on five pitches to load the bases.

Another walk of Joey Meneses brought in a run before Manoah got Keibert Ruiz to send his bat helicoptering into Washington’s dugout while chasing a running sinker. So, make that 29 pitches, 15 strikes, five whiffs, three strikeouts, two walks, an error, and an unearned run. Quite the way to return to the majors for the first time in nine months.

Manoah’s second inning was smoother — three up, three down on 15 pitches, including two more punchouts. But a loud Garcia solo shot off a hung slider put a run on his line in the third. And the Nationals second baseman got Manoah again in the fourth, lining a sinker right at the bottom of the zone back up the middle to cash a pair with two out.

That’s where Manoah needed to stop the bleeding, and getting ahead of Senzel, 0-2, was a good start. But the DH shot Manoah’s next pitch up the left-field line before Winker, after patiently working a full count, hammered a slider out over the plate 393-feet over the right-centre wall.

Manoah got out of the fourth with a fly ball, but with his pitch count up to 92, Blue Jays manager John Schneider decided to pull the shoot. In all, it was an uneven 2024 debut for Manoah, who sprayed his pitches at times and generated awkward swings at others. He hung out over the plate with his slider much too often, but also located some nifty sinkers arm-side to lefties and over the lower outside corner to righties.

“I feel like when I was attacking the zone, I was pretty tough to hit,” Manoah said. “Started to nibble, tried to be too perfect, got behind in some counts, and they made me pay with a couple of big swings. So, I've just got to continue to get in that rhythm, continue to attack, stay in that mode and not get away from that.

“I don't think it was a control thing. I think it was just me trying to hit an outside corner or trying to be too fine. I'm not Greg Maddux. I'm not going to be Greg Maddux. Fastball's got great life and I've just got to go out there and trust it.”

The final line — seven runs (six earned) on six hits, four walks, six strikeouts, and two homers — was not what anyone was hoping for. Yet, there were positive components of Manoah’s day he can build on. That’s why he’ll remain in the Blue Jays rotation going forward, with clear priorities of finding a way to be more pitch efficient and quicker to self-correct in-inning when he gets away from attacking the zone.

“To his credit, he battled out of some jams. Definitely a good first step to hopefully get a little bit better,” Schneider said. “Today, he was as good as I've seen him stuff-wise in quite a while. I think it's just being efficient with that stuff going forward. And trying to get a little bit deeper in the game.”

OK, Guerrero. It was the second inning and the bottom of the Blue Jays order had something going against Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore, as five consecutive batters reached thanks to a couple hits, a walk, a force out, and a Gore error on a comebacker.

With the bases loaded, one out, and the count full, George Springer whiffed on a 98-m.p.h. Gore fastball off the plate. That brought up Guerrero, who took a 2-0 fastball right down the middle, before Gore came back with a changeup the Blue Jays first baseman couldn’t help but pull the trigger on:

That is a swing Guerrero, the Blue Jays, and their entire fanbase has been wanting to see more consistently for going on 13 months — 109-m.p.h. of pull power on a line so true Winker barely bothered to move in left field. It was Guerrero’s fifth career grand slam and his first home run in 21 games. A timely swing in a big spot; a pressure valve release for a scuffling offence and a prodigious talent who’s struggled to perform to his potential.

Think of how many times over the last two seasons you’ve seen Guerrero barrel pitches like that with little to show for it. He hit a back-up Seth Lugo slider 115.1-m.p.h. on Wednesday. Only 15 balls have been hit harder across MLB this season. But instead of parking that ball in the seats, as he did regularly did against mistake pitches like that when he was an MVP contender in 2021, Guerrero lined it into left field for a single. Two outs later, he was stranded at first.

For one reason or another, Guerrero hasn’t been getting the most out of his uncommon ability to hammer the ball for some time now. This season, his slugging percentage (.346) is 109 points below his expected slugging percentage (.455) based on the quality of contact he makes. That’s the 18th-largest negative difference among 269 qualified MLB hitters. Similar refrain in 2023, as the -.059 difference between Guerrero’s xSLG (.503) and actual SLG (.444) was 10th-largest among 258 hitters.

It's tough to write that off as merely bad luck when it’s been happening for more than 800 plate appearances. Surely there’s something else going on under the hood here. Whether it’s something mechanical, something environmental, something in the way the ball’s spinning off his bat — who’s to say?

“I wish I had the magic answer,” Schneider said. “His at-bats, really all year, have been pretty damn solid. I think he's in a really good spot right now. And I think they'll come a little bit more consistently as he continues to feel better and better.”

What we know is Guerrero — typically a strong starter — just completed one of the toughest months statistically of his MLB career. His only other full month with an OPS lower than the .678 he posted this March/April was the final one of his rookie season in 2019. Every player slumps — but we’ve seldom seen Guerrero fighting to find his stride as much as he was last month. And we’ve been watching him fight to find that stride since the beginning of 2023.

But maybe something’s quietly starting for him. Guerrero entered Sunday batting .321/.367/.429 over his last seven, then went 2-for-4 with a walk and a throwback, towering homer. Four of his last six balls in play have come off his bat over 105-m.p.h. Of course, Guerrero always hits the ball hard. Getting more out of those well-struck balls is the task now.

Guerrero’s still only 25 and feels perpetually on the verge of putting it all together Remember, David Ortiz didn’t break out until he was 27 and became a hall-of-famer. Carlos Delgado didn’t surpass a 127 OPS+ until he was 26. Guerrero’s 129 career OPS+ is higher than Jason Giambi’s was entering his age-29 season. Todd Helton and Adrian Gonzalez both went from pretty good to great at 26. Edwin Encarnacion went from E5 to Eddy at 29.

Guerrero’s making plenty of hard contact, walking a ton, and running the lowest chase rate of his career. His expected rate stats all rank within the top 25 per cent of the league. If you knew nothing of the context of his last 13 months, and were looking for an MLB hitter on the verge of a breakout, this is the peripheral profile you’d choose. What needs to happen to turn that process into more consistent results is the dilemma the Blue Jays must solve.