TORONTO — Within the visiting clubhouse at Rogers Centre Sunday morning, the Minnesota Twins will gameplan for Alek Manoah, preparing a plan of attack for the Blue Jays right-hander ahead of his first home start since last July 29.
Manoah’s someone the Twins have faced before, but not since 2022, the year Manoah posted a 2.24 ERA on his way to a third-place finish in American League Cy Young voting. Last year, when Manoah had a 5.87 ERA in 19 starts, the Twins missed him, so there’s lots to catch up on.
From Manoah’s delivery to his pitch mix, much has changed. And while he’s working behind the scenes in the hopes of getting back to that elite level, it’s now worth assessing Manoah the way other teams might: as an evolving pitcher still seeking consistency rather than a familiar one who’s found it.
On that front, his 2024 debut against the Nationals offered some important clues. Of the 92 pitches Manoah threw, 91 were fastballs or sliders while one was a change-up. Of the 24 batters he faced, only 11 saw first-pitch strikes. Broadly, he wasn’t in the zone enough, with just 52 of 92 pitches thrown for strikes.
Yet his fastball topped out at 96.5 m.p.h. and his slider averaged 42 inches of vertical break, so while Manoah didn’t command his pitches consistently, they had lots of life.
“I thought it was good,” said Blue Jays manager John Schneider. “More good than bad … It could have been more consistent, but comparing him to where he was last year, it’s a lot better.”
The Blue Jays anticipate that the Twins will roll out a similar lineup Sunday to the one they employed against Kevin Gausman Saturday, when four left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters started to maximize Minnesota’s platoon advantage in a game the Blue Jays eventually won 10-8.
That will pose a challenge for Manoah, who has allowed much harder contact against lefties (30 HR, .752 OPS) than righties (15 HR, .548 OPS) for his career. But that’s nothing new for him, either, as teams nearly always stack lefties against Manoah.
If he’s consistently over the plate, the Blue Jays anticipate good things.
“Being in the zone with all of his pitches is going to be important, and that comes down to his delivery,” Schneider said. “The more he’s in the zone with conviction — not just flipping a breaking ball in there on a 2-1 count — it’s being in the zone with conviction as much as you can, and (if so) I think he’ll be all right.”
Of course, throwing strikes consistently is far easier said than done, especially for someone who stands six-foot-six. No pitcher aims to fall behind 1-0 on more than half of the hitters he faces, the way Manoah did against the Nationals.
With that in mind, the Twins could decide to be patient with Manoah, forcing him to show that he can throw strikes and then sitting fastball or slider should they find themselves in advantage counts. Both of the Twins’ switch hitters, Carlos Santana and Willi Castro, have homered against Manoah before.
The counter for Manoah: getting ahead in the count. And the more he repeats his delivery, the more feasible that becomes.
A rival scout said Manoah was pitching ‘uphill’ against the Nationals — scouting speak indicating he wasn’t consistently generating fluid momentum toward the plate. Plus, his landing foot wasn’t always pointing toward the catcher, leading to lapses in command.
“When you have multiple issues it makes it hard to repeat delivery and therefore hard to throw strikes,” the scout said.
A second evaluator who saw Manoah recently offered a similar assessment: the raw stuff was actually pretty good, but unlikely to have the desired effect against MLB hitters unless he’s over the plate more frequently.
At the same time, the Blue Jays have the chance to respond, too. In a Friday bullpen session at Rogers Centre, Manoah worked with pitching coach Pete Walker on repeating his delivery, building on the conversations they’ve had over the last 12 months or so. If those adjustments work, he’ll find himself ahead in the count more often, allowing his stuff to play up.
But if not, this dangerous Twins lineup will be positioned to work counts in their favour and wait to do damage against the pitches they handle best. And whatever happens, you can be sure the Rays — Manoah’s next opponent — will be watching closely.
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