MLB Playoff Push: Blue Jays start week in prime position to clinch wild-card spot

You almost couldn't have drawn up a better weekend of results for the Toronto Blue Jays if you tried.

Not only did they take care of business on their end, winning two of three at Tropicana Field against the Tampa Bay Rays, but the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners were swept in their respective series, dropping two or more games back of the Blue Jays with a week to play.

Toronto will return home to close out its regular season with the same schedule it played last week, this time in the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre.

With the Mariners and Astros kicking off a three-game set in Seattle, the Blue Jays will have the opportunity to continue gaining ground on one of the two teams below them in the wild-card chase.

Things won't be easy for Toronto, however, as the New York Yankees come to town with Michael King and Gerrit Cole scheduled to take the mound. In their starts against the Blue Jays last week, the duo combined to strike out 22 hitters over 15 innings while allowing just a run apiece. So, while the Blue Jays are as close as they've been all season to locking down a spot in October, they've still got to finish the job.

As the grind of the 162-game schedule officially wraps up, let's see how the four teams battling it out in the AL wild-card line up this week.

IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY

No. 1 and AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles (97-59): Bye
No. 2 and AL West-leading Texas Rangers (87-68): Bye
No. 3 and AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins (83-73) vs. No. 6 Houston Astros (85-71)
No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (95-62) vs. No. 5 Toronto Blue Jays (87-69)

WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

While the Yankees were mathematically still in the hunt for a wild-card spot, that is no longer the case, as they were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday.

It's hard to say how that may affect their series in Toronto, if at all, as after their eliminating loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Aaron Judge said, "there was talks of stuff getting shut down, but I gotta be out there."

As for the other Blue Jays opponent this week, the Rays are still just 2.5 games back of the AL East-leading Orioles, but Baltimore is set to face the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox to finish the season. Tampa Bay could very well be locked into their spot atop the wild card by the time Friday comes around.

LOOKING AT THE WILD-CARD RACE THIS WEEK

Texas Rangers: Coming off their sweep of the Mariners, Texas suddenly looks like the favourite to claim the AL West. The Rangers are 2.5 games up on the Astros for the division lead, but will need to take care of business as they open the week against the Los Angeles Angels. With Seattle and Houston squaring off, any Texas loss means it will lose ground. The Rangers will be forced to flip the script on their performance away from Globe Life Field this season, as all seven of their remaining games are on the road. They have a .617 win percentage at home this season, compared to just .500 as the visitors. Now winners of 11 of its last 15 games, the question is if Texas is finding its early-season form at the right time.

Toronto Blue Jays: With the Mariners' seven games remaining in-division, if the Blue Jays get to 90 wins, they will clinch a spot in the post-season. Of course, as results change throughout the week, that number could change, but with all the inter-AL West games remaining, the most all three teams could win is 89 games. In an ideal world, one of the Astros and Mariners would sweep their three-game set, which would leave the other club with a maximum of 88 wins — meaning Toronto would only need to win two more games to lock down a playoff spot. The Blue Jays will send Kevin Gausman, Jose Berríos, and Chris Bassitt to the mound against the Yankees as they hope to clinch sooner rather than later.

Houston Astros: Despite having the easiest remaining schedule of any post-season contender just two weeks ago, the Astros weren't able to take advantage. They have now lost four consecutive series against the Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, and two to the Kansas City Royals. Over that stretch, Houston ranks 20th in team ERA, sixth in home runs against and 23rd in offensive runs scored. With three of those four series coming at home, it might be a welcome departure for the Astros to hit the road for their final six games. They finished the season just 39-42 at Minute Maid Park while going 46-29 as the away team. Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez are scheduled to pitch for Houston at T-Mobile Park this week as it battles to make the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season.

Seattle Mariners: After going an AL-best 21-6 in August, the Mariners have come back to Earth with an 8-14 record in September. With a chance to overtake the Rangers this weekend, their offence couldn't keep up over the three games. They allowed eight home runs to Texas hitters and their standout rotation faltered, giving up 14 runs in 13.1 innings pitched. If there's something they can hang their hat on heading into this week, it's how they've performed against the Astros all season. Seattle is up 8-2 in the season series, outscoring Houston 53-27, including a three-game sweep in August. The Mariners will give the ball to Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryce Miller this week in what should be some elite pitching matchups.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Monday morning, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.

Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%

Texas' FanGraphs odds: 97.0% | Texas' Baseball Reference odds: 98.0%

Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%

Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%

Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 97.7% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 97.9%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 60.7% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 59.0%

Seattle's FanGraphs odds: 44.7% | Seattle's Baseball Reference odds: 45.1%