MLB Playoff Push: How schedules look for AL wild-card hopefuls in stretch run

With the race for the final wild-card spot in the American League as crowded as it has been in recent memory, every game and series will carry extra weight as October baseball looms.

While the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have largely separated themselves from the pack, there is still a potpourri of nine other clubs battling for two division titles and one wild-card spot.

Right in the middle of it all are the Toronto Blue Jays, who have used a 13-9 August to get back into the mix. Despite a series loss over the weekend in the Bronx, the Blue Jays are now set to take on one of the softest portions of their schedule when they open a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals at Rogers Centre on Tuesday.

Toronto will enter the week 1.5 games behind the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians in the race for the third wild-card spot while sitting ahead of four other teams looking for a late-season surge.

Although the calendar has yet to even reach September, the push for the post-season has begun. And with the stretch run comes plenty of scoreboard watching and standings checks. So, acknowledging that anything can happen on the field, let's take our first look at the AL playoff picture and how the schedules stack up.

IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY

American League

No. 1 and AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (77-53): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox (68-62): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (65-66)* vs. No. 6 Texas Rangers (65-66)**
No. 4 New York Yankees (74-56) vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (71-59)
*Astros and Rangers are tied at 65-66, but Houston holds the tiebreaker.
**Rangers and Guardians are tied at 65-66, but Texas holds the tiebreaker.

WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

With all three of the Astros, Rangers and Guardians sporting a 65-66 record, the standings will surely continue to shift in the week ahead. Cleveland, in particular, could make its move before September arrives. Currently riding a four-game win streak, the Guardians are set for series with the 52-79 Angels and 58-74 Royals over the next week.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, will hope a series against those very Royals — who have won eight straight of their own entering the week — will help them move past their series loss to the Yankees before welcoming the Mariners over the weekend.

Beyond Toronto, one team to keep an eye on this week will be the Tigers. Detroit has lost five straight games and eight of its last nine, and is set for its toughest test of the month with consecutive series against Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Despite their August slip, the Tigers are still just 3.5 games back of the third wild-card spot and boast the third-highest run differential in the American League. But as the team with the most ground to make up, Detroit can't afford another stumble while facing two of baseball's best squads.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE CHECK FOR WILD-CARD CONTENDERS

Houston Astros: There's a chance that Houston looks back at last week's series losses to the Angels and Athletics as a missed opportunity. The Astros don't face many slouches the rest of the way, with their remaining opponents boasting a combined .508 winning percentage — the 11th-toughest mark in baseball — which includes series against the Yankees, Rays, Braves, Phillies and White Sox. Most of those matchups do, however, come in the next few weeks, setting Houston up with seven of its final 12 games against the Royals and Athletics.

Texas Rangers: The Rangers own the most difficult remaining schedule of all American League clubs. Not only do they have 15 games remaining against teams above .500, but they only have two series left against teams without a realistic shot at making the post-season. Texas also doesn't have any games left against the Astros — who own the head-to-head tiebreaker — meaning that to win the AL West, it will have to finish one game better than its state rival. The Rangers will have the ability to fend off some of their wild-card competition, though, if the division ends up out of the question, with series remaining against the Mariners, Blue Jays and Twins in September.

Cleveland Guardians: Coming off a sweep of the Colorado Rockies, Cleveland will continue to benefit from one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball. The Guardians' remaining opponents have the third-lowest combined winning percentage (.465) in all of MLB, as Cleveland still has 12 games remaining against the Royals, Athletics and Angels. The Guardians will also have a good shot at controlling their own destiny within the wild-card race, with series against the Blue Jays, Tigers, Orioles and Twins in September.

Toronto Blue Jays: While Cleveland has the third-weakest remaining schedule, Toronto's batch of opponents check in as the second-easiest, carrying a .464 combined winning percentage. The Blue Jays are the only team in baseball without a remaining game against an opponent above .500, as of Aug. 24, and could benefit from having 18 contests against their immediate wild-card competition, including series against the Rangers and Guardians. If Toronto can make it to the final weekend with a playoff spot within reach, it finishes its regular-season schedule with three games against the Cincinnati Reds, who project to be playing out the stretch by that point.

Baltimore Orioles: Despite having their next nine games against non-playoff teams, the Orioles will really have to turn it on in September if they hope to reach the post-season. Following this stretch against the Cardinals, Athletics and Rockies, Baltimore will face only teams currently in playoff position, in the wild-card hunt and the Mets. Of course, games aren't played on paper, but a season-ending run against the Brewers, Blue Jays and Yankees to make the playoffs seems like a tall task if the Orioles don't start stacking wins before the middle of September.

Minnesota Twins: Losers of three straight, the Twins begin a series in Sacramento on Monday before going on to play 15 straight intra-division games against the White Sox (x2), Tigers and Guardians. It could turn into a make-or-break stretch for Minnesota, which will go the final two weeks of the year facing the Yankees, Angels, Giants and Rangers. It's far from the most daunting of the remaining AL schedules, but the Twins will be playing a lot of baseball against many opponents battling for playoff positioning the rest of the way.

Seattle Mariners: No team in baseball has a softer remaining strength of schedule than the Mariners. With 17 games left against the Angels, Athletics and Rockies, Seattle will be given the chance to dig itself out of the hole it finds itself in at seven games under .500. But consistent play has been hard to come by this season in the Pacific Northwest, and the Mariners will have to avoid falling further back with series against the Philadelphia Phillies and Red Sox before the weaker competition pops up.

Detroit Tigers: Facing the longest odds of cracking the playoff field, the Tigers will need to find another gear to climb past the six teams ahead of them in the wild-card chase. As mentioned above, Detroit will see the Rays and Dodgers in its next six games before embarking on a schedule that features five series that could help it gain ground in the AL. Four of those are against AL Central opponents in the Twins, Guardians and White Sox, while the other is against the Blue Jays. The September slate also includes some softer spots with the Rockies, Nationals and Pirates, but the Tigers will need to take care of business in the AL and get some help from the teams around them to even have a shot.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Monday morning, in terms of playoff odds among American League teams battling for post-season spots.

Tampa Bay's FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay's Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Chicago's FanGraphs odds: 73.6% | Chicago's Baseball Reference odds: 95%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 46.5% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 53.7%

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 98.4% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.6%

Texas’s FanGraphs odds: 43.9% | Texas’s Baseball Reference odds: 35.1%

Cleveland's FanGraphs odds: 45.5% | Cleveland's Baseball Reference odds: 41%

Toronto's FanGraphs odds: 18.2% | Toronto's Baseball Reference odds: 27.9%

Minnesota's FanGraphs odds: 20.8% | Minnesota's Baseball Reference odds: 10.8%

Baltimore's FanGraphs odds: 12.2% | Baltimore's Baseball Reference odds: 9%

Seattle's FanGraphs odds: 35.8% | Seattle's Baseball Reference odds: 19.1%

Detroit's FanGraphs odds: 5.1% | Detroit's Baseball Reference odds: 8.9%