MLB Playoff Push: Mariners overtake Blue Jays for final wild-card spot

As the Toronto Blue Jays got two much-needed rest days on both sides of their series split with the Philadelphia Phillies, the Seattle Mariners took three of four against the Kansas City Royals.

Next, the Mariners took the opener of their series against the Houston Astros, while the Blue Jays were shut out by the Cincinnati Reds. The one-game swing helped the Mariners overtake the Blue Jays for the AL's final wild-card spot.

Coming into the week, the Mariners' pitching staff had carried the load as they raced their way into the thick of the American League wild-card picture. But in Kansas City, Seattle allowed 24 runs to the light-hitting Royals, requiring late-game comebacks from its offence.

After a three-game set in Houston against the Astros this weekend, Seattle's schedule continues to come against non-playoff contenders, with four straight series coming against the Royals once again, the Chicago White Sox, the Oakland Athletics and the New York Mets.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will face the Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians before getting to the softest stretch remaining on their regular season schedule.

With less than two weeks until the beginning of September, let's dive into the AL playoff picture to see where things stack up.

No. 1 and AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles (74-47): Bye

No. 2 and AL West-leading Texas Rangers (72-49): Bye

No. 3 Minnesota Twins (63-59) vs. No. 6 Seattle Mariners (66-55)

No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (73-50) vs. No. 5 Houston Astros (70-53)

While the Mariners gained ground on the Blue Jays, the other teams in the AL wild-card race have spent the week taking a step back.

The New York Yankees' losing streak grew to six after being swept at the hands of the NL-leading Atlanta Braves, dropping them below .500 for the time this late into a season since 1992.

Things didn't play out all that much better for the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels in their mid-week series, as both clubs dropped two of three. Boston lost back-to-back games to the Washington Nationals, and Los Angeles avoided being swept with a series-finale win over the Texas Rangers. The Red Sox did take the opener against the Yankees on Friday night though.

Tampa Bay Rays: The bats. After taking a series win against the San Francisco Giants, the Rays improved to 8-6 in August as they try to recover from an 8-16 record in July. Tampa Bay scored 5.63 runs per game over the first three months of 2023 while winning nearly 70 per cent of its games. Since July 1, however, the Rays' offence has put up just 4.13 runs per game, ranking 24th in MLB. If Tampa Bay can find a way to get the offence back to early-season form, it should be able to take advantage of its weaker schedule over the next couple of weeks.

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker. One of the hottest hitters in baseball, Tucker has turned it on since calendars turned to August. He owns a .985 OPS over 15 games this month with six home runs, 20 RBI and a clutch go-ahead grand slam against the Baltimore Orioles on Aug. 8. Houston is 17-5 in games where Tucker leaves the yard this season, so it is no surprise that as he heats up, the Astros seem to be rounding into form.

Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette. After completing a two-game stint with triple-A Buffalo, Bichette appears ready to return to the Blue Jays' lineup this weekend. He went 4-for-5 with a home run and three RBI in his rehab appearances with the Bisons, proving how much his presence was missed with the big league team. While Bichette has been on the injured list, Toronto has gotten near-league-worst production from the shortstop position. Without the 25-year-old, the Blue Jays have scored more than five runs just three times, and two or less five times.

Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez. After a slow start to the season, Rodriguez appears to be finding his groove. He went 5-for-5 with a home run and five RBI in Seattle's win over the Royals on Thursday, boosting his OPS in August to 1.052. He's already hit seven home runs in 31 games since the All-Star break after hitting 13 in the 81 games before it. As Seattle gears up for its soft upcoming schedule, the reigning AL rookie of the year may be able to build on his strong second half against some of the weaker pitching staffs in MLB.

Boston Red Sox: Returns from injury. After seemingly finding a groove throughout May and into June, posting a 2.43 ERA over 29.2 innings, Chris Sale hit the injured list once again. He returned to the Red Sox rotation on Aug. 11 and has made two starts, allowing four earned runs over nine innings. Meanwhile, Trevor Story has recorded just a .226/.273/.355 slash line since returning to the Red Sox. While some buildup time can be expected coming off the IL, Boston's playoff hopes are dwindling with each loss, so getting positive production from the two former all-stars is going to be needed sooner rather than later.

New York Yankees: "A long hot streak." After dropping under .500 on Wednesday, Yankees star Aaron Judge detailed that he believes the club is just one streak away from being where they want to be. Now 6.5 games back of the Blue Jays, New York has less than three per cent odds, no matter where you look, of securing a spot in this year's playoffs. With underperforming players up and down the roster, a hot streak seems quite unlikely for a team that doesn't play consecutive series against teams out of the post-season picture for the rest of the season.

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.

Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 98.3% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.6%

Texas' FanGraphs odds: 93.8% | Texas' Baseball Reference odds: 98.3%

Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 91.1% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 88.7%

Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 96.7% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 94.3%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 92.0% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 86.2%

Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 66.2% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 69.2%

Seattle's FanGraphs odds: 40.4% | Seattle's Baseball Reference odds: 44.4%

Boston's FanGraphs odds: 9.6% | Boston's Baseball Reference odds: 6.9%

New York's FanGraphs odds: 2.3% | New York's Baseball Reference odds: 0.8%

Los Angeles' FanGraphs odds: 0.7% | Los Angeles's Baseball Reference odds: 0.3%

Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 8.0% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 10.6%

TOR @ CIN: Another series, another matchup with a team vying for an NL wild card spot for the Blue Jays. After a mid-summer youth movement spurred the Cincinnati Reds into the post-season picture, they have come back to earth in August, going just 4-10. On Sunday, flamethrowing 24-year-old Hunter Greene is slated to return to the mound after missing two months with a hip injury. With the expectation that Bichette will be back in the lineup on Saturday, Toronto will send Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Hyun Jin Ryu to the mound in their first series at Great American Ballpark since 2014.

SEA @ HOU: While they only trail the Blue Jays by half a game, the Mariners are just 3.5 back of the Astros, as well. Seattle owns the season series 5-2, and will get the chance to continue its hot August at Minute Maid Park. Luis Castillo and Justin Verlander both threw on Wednesday so they won't be on the hill this weekend, but Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez will face off on Saturday.

BOS @ NYY: As they move further away from the final wild card spot, a series victory this weekend could go a long way for both the Red Sox and Yankees. Both teams' playoff odds sit below 10 per cent, and each have September schedules loaded with AL East competition. Boston has dominated New York this season, with a 5-1 record over two series, outscoring the Bronx Bombers 32-15.