One key to victory for the Diamondbacks and Phillies in the NLCS

After dominating the regular season, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers seemed destined to meet in the NLCS.

But in the Division Series, each team was tasked with dispatching a division rival. The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks not only beat the NL favourites — they flat-out dominated them to earn a spot in the Championship Series.

For the second straight year, the Phillies seem to have unlocked the secret formula to winning in October. This time around, they seem even better equipped to finish the job.

With a pair of aces atop the rotation, who have once again been dealing this post-season, a deeper bullpen, a lineup overflowing with stars and the best home-field advantage in baseball, Philadelphia enters the Championship Series a heavy favourite to book its ticket back to the Fall Classic.

On the other side of the matchup, though, the Diamondbacks have been playing like a younger version of the Phillies.

"They’re playing a lot like us right now. They’re hot. Their lineup is really deep," Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto told reporters ahead of the series. "The most daunting thing now is how much confidence they’re playing with.”

Arizona has yet to lose this post-season and has rounded into form at the right time, but now faces its toughest test yet.

Here is one key to victory for both clubs as they look to claim the National League pennant.

Schedule

Game 1: Monday, 8:07 p.m. ET/5:07 p.m. PT

Game 2: Tuesday, 8:07 p.m. ET/5:07 p.m. PT

Game 3: Thursday, 5:07 p.m. ET/2:07 p.m. PT

Game 4: Friday, 8:07 p.m. ET/5:07 p.m. PT

Game 5 (if necessary): Oct. 21, 8:07 p.m. ET/5:07 p.m. PT

Game 6 (if necessary): Oct. 23, 5:07 p.m. ET/2:07 p.m. PT

Game 7 (if necessary): Oct. 24, 8:07 p.m. ET/5:07 p.m. PT

Betting odds via Sports Interaction

Phillies to win series (-185), Diamondbacks to win series (+150)

Diamondbacks' key to victory

Keep slugging.

It's been well-documented how important hitting home runs is to winning in the playoffs. And no team has increased their power output quite like the Diamondbacks through the first two rounds of the post-season.

Arizona ranked 22nd in baseball in home runs in the regular season, hitting 1.02 long balls per game. But in five games against the Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers, the Diamondbacks have hit 2.6 per game.

In fact, the Diamondbacks didn't hit 13 home runs in a five-game span all season long.

Perhaps the most impressive part of Arizona's power barrage thus far has been just how many players have gotten in on the act. Eight different Diamondbacks have homered this post-season, led by three from former Toronto Blue Jays catcher Gabriel Moreno.

But if they want to keep their Cinderella run alive, they're going to have to do it against a Phillies pitching staff that has excelled in keeping the ball in the yard all season long. Philadelphia allowed just three home runs to the single-season record-holding Atlanta Braves in the NLDS and allowed the 10th fewest long balls in the regular season.

While Phillies ace Zack Wheeler takes his game to another level in the playoffs, some Diamondbacks hitters have historically been pretty good against the 33-year-old, who starts Game 1 on Monday. Christian Walker, Tommy Pham, Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. all have an OPS over .900 against Wheeler in their careers.

Teams that have outhomered their opponents are 15-1 in the 2023 playoffs. Philadelphia and Arizona were 54 homers apart in the regular season but enter the Championship Series with 13 apiece.

It may be difficult for the Diamondbacks to keep up the pace they've homered at through the first two rounds, but if they want to advance to their first World Series since 2001, they're going to have to at least match the loaded Phillies offence.

Phillies' key to victory:

Keep the Diamondbacks at bay on the bases.

Based on the regular-season results, Philadelphia has a significant advantage in nearly every aspect of the game.

But two areas where the Diamondbacks clearly top the Phillies are on the bases and in the field. Arizona ranked second in MLB in stolen bases and also finished top 10 in FanGraphs' baserunning metric BsR, and Philadelphia ranked seventh and 13th, respectively.

The Phillies also own one of the worst defences in baseball, finishing 25th in DRS, while the Diamondbacks finished fourth.

So Philadelphia will need to keep Arizona from running rampant in the series.

Of course, there's no one better to keep potential base stealers at bay than Realmuto, who threw out 22 per cent of runners this season, owns the quickest pop time in baseball and one of the strongest arms from behind the plate.

Keeping the Diamondbacks from stealing bases will be important, but not giving them free ones will also loom large. With Arizona lining up all righties in its rotation, the Phillies will have just three above-average defenders in the field with Bryson Stott, Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh.

As established earlier, Phillies pitchers are pretty good at limiting the gopher ball. But now that they're facing a younger, more athletic team that puts the ball in play a ton, any defensive mistake will almost certainly result in an extra base or two for the Diamondbacks.

With Arizona being one of the more aggressive base-running teams, you can almost certainly expect them to try and force Philadelphia into some mistakes.

Of course, the Phillies are no stranger to dealing with a shaky defence, so if they can keep rolling offensively, it's just a matter of limiting their mistakes in the field and not beating themselves in a series where their capabilities with the glove will be tested.