With the swing of his life in the wild-card round, Pete Alonso sent the Miracle New York Mets onto the National League Division series, set for a juicy inter-division series against the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies.
This will be the first-ever October meeting between the two clubs, and it features plenty of intrigue as the Mets will put their incredible run on the line against their stiffest test yet.
These Phillies are no stranger to October, having advanced to the NLCS and World Series over the past two seasons. Led by Bryce Harper and a deep pitching staff, they’re poised to to make another run.
However, Alonso and the Mets have provided enough “OMG” moments over the past few months, including two this week, to strike enough fear into even the strongest of contenders.
There’s something magical going on in New York, and Philadelphia’s going to need to bring its 'A' game to snuff it out.
No. 2 Phillies (95-67) vs. No. 6 Mets (89-73)
Phillies won the season series, 7-6, outscoring the Mets 69-59.
What’s working for the Phillies:
Philadelphia’s stars found their stride to end the season. After a mid-season lull had the Phillies playing around .500 in July and August, they flipped the switch in September. Over the final month of the year, Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto each posted an OPS north of .800, combining for 27 home runs. While the bats picked up steam, so did some of Philadelphia’s top pitchers. Zack Wheeler made a late case to be in the NL Cy Young conversation, pitching to a 2.23 ERA over his final five starts, racking up 41 strikeouts over 32.1 innings. And with Wheeler’s post-season résumé — no active starter with at least 50 playoff innings pitched has a lower mark than his 2.42 ERA — he’s sure to give the Mets all they can handle in Game 1.
What’s working for the Mets:
In stunning the Milwaukee Brewers with two come-from-behind wins on the road, the Mets showed that their resilience and ability to rise to the moment wasn’t just a regular season fad. With a five-run fifth in Game 1, strung together with five hits and three walks, and Alonso’s seemingly impossible heroics in Game 3, New York’s hitters showed their ability to push runs across the plate in multiple ways. They didn’t just slug their way through the Brewers’ pitching staff; instead, they worked counts, used the whole field and made productive outs to drive runners in. And when they needed the long ball most, the Polar Bear stepped up. It’s not that the Mets don’t hit homers, they hit the sixth-most in baseball this season, but as the gopher ball dried up through the first 26 innings of the series, they were still able to score. That ability could come up big against some of Philadelphia’s stingier arms.
Potential Achilles heel for the Phillies:
Citizens Bank Park has proven to be a house of horrors for visiting teams in recent seasons. Since the beginning of 2022, the Phillies have gone 150-93 at home while going 122-121 on the road. That trend has continued through the last two post-seasons, with Philadelphia winning 12 of 16 games in front of the Philly faithful and just seven of 14 games playing as the visitors. So, heading into this series against a Mets team that has become something of a road warrior — they haven't played at home since Sept. 22 — it's going to be important for the Phillies to handle business in front of their home crowd. Manager Rob Thomson is already moving pieces around in the rotation in planning for a "pretty hostile environment" in New York. As we've seen so far in these playoffs, home-field advantage hasn't meant much, but for Philadelphia, its struggles on the road mean it can't slip up at home.
Potential Achilles heel for the Mets:
In their race to the post-season and first-round victory over the Brewers, the Mets have taxed both their bullpen and rotation. Closer Edwin Diaz has already thrown 105 pitches this week, which forced New York to get creative in Milwaukee. It used nine different pitchers in the series, including turning to starter David Peterson to close Game 3 when he was lined up to pitch Game 1 of the NLDS. Instead, the Mets will turn to Kodai Senga to open the series in Philadelphia despite the right-hander only having pitched 5.1 innings this season due to injury. Their bullpen did falter against the Brewers, allowing five runs and four homers in the series, and now faced with an even more formidable offence in the heart of “Red October,” the Mets’ pitching depth will be pushed even further in the NLDS.
It’ll all come down to…
Strength-on-strength. The Phillies have mashed sinkers and cutters all season, ranking second in batter run value while hitting .304 and slugging .484 on the two pitches. On the other side, the Mets were among the MLB leaders in percentage of sinkers and cutters thrown this season, and got solid results while doing so. It’s the classic cat-and-mouse game that is every post-season at-bat, will New York pitchers stick to their strengths or try and attack Philadelphia’s weakness against breaking pitches? It’s going to be thrilling to watch.
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