Ranking Blue Jays' trade deadline needs from extra arms to righty bats

TORONTO — Earlier this week, Toronto Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins offered a preview of what his club will look to add at the trade deadline.

Like virtually all contending teams, the Blue Jays are interested in relievers while exploring the market for starting pitchers. And even if much of the offensive improvement the Blue Jays seek will have to come internally, they’re looking for bats, too.

“We need to make this team better in any possible way,” Atkins said.

Of course that leaves lots of possibilities, especially at a time that further payroll increases are possible. In fact, the only possibility the GM brushed aside was the idea of adding another catcher, and after a three-hit performance from the struggling Alejandro Kirk Thursday, that seems even less likely.

To some extent, the Blue Jays must let the market guide them. If the price on hitters is exorbitant, that could push them toward pitching, for instance. And with fewer than 10 teams in sell mode right now, they need baseball’s rebuilders to like their prospects.

But all things being equal, here’s my ranking of the Blue Jays’ biggest needs at this trade deadline.

Ideally, the Blue Jays would add here even with Chad Green making his way back from Tommy John surgery. After nearly four months with just Tim Mayza from the left side, a left-handed reliever would be preferable. Or if lefties are in short supply, who’d say no to a strikeout-inducing right-hander like David Robertson or Keynan Middleton? 

But if it doesn’t happen, the Blue Jays could still be fine here. Jordan Romano (lower back) looked good in his return to action Thursday, Yimi Garcia has pitched much better after a slow start and Nate Pearson has earned chances in leverage. Plus, with Trevor Richards now in a dedicated relief role, there’s a quality multi-inning option in place. You could win playoff series with this group.

Lucky for the Blue Jays the deadline isn’t tomorrow. They’ll know a lot more about their rotation by Aug. 1, including:

• How Kevin Gausman fares in his return from left side discomfort Saturday.

• Whether Alek Manoah can steady things in Seattle after an up-and-down month.

• How Hyun Jin Ryu pitches in his return to the majors, which could occur by this time next week.

Best case, the Blue Jays could have more starters than rotation spots pretty soon (if that were to occur, Yusei Kikuchi would be the most logical candidate to shift to a bullpen role later in the season).

Worst case, this could start to look like a pressing need. For now, the Blue Jays can let this play out while they get a sense of prices on starters league-wide (while a reunion with Marcus Stroman would make the Blue Jays a better team, that would surprise some plugged-in industry observers).

So far this season, Kevin Kiermaier (33), George Springer (33), Whit Merrifield (34) and Brandon Belt (35) have played in 84 per cent of possible games. Give those players and the Blue Jays' training staff credit — that’s impressive.

At the same time, banking on that health to continue comes with risk. There’s also risk in assuming their current level of production will continue, especially when Belt leads all MLB hitters with a .418 batting average on balls in play — a category more often dominated by speedsters.

Thankfully for the Blue Jays, there’s a way to insulate themselves against this risk: add a right-handed hitter. Thanks to Merrifield’s versatility, they can pursue infielders and outfielders, lengthening the list of candidates.

On paper, the likes of Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen look like especially good fits as both have better-than-average speed, good control of the strike zone and strong quality of contact numbers. Since they’re pending free agents on non-contenders, both should be available on prices the Blue Jays can meet without emptying the farm system.

If everyone’s healthy, this player would start against lefties and come off the bench in situations like the one we saw Wednesday night when Santiago Espinal was one of the best pinch-hitting options available to manager John Schneider. Plus, if anyone got hurt, the Blue Jays would have a capable major-leaguer ready to step in and contribute.

Without a position player along these lines, the Blue Jays expose themselves to the possibility that someone like Espinal, Jordan Luplow or Nathan Lukes is taking far too many at-bats in big moments.

As fascinating as a Shohei Ohtani trade would be, it’s hard to see him going anywhere as long as the 49-48 Angels are above .500. But considering his impact as an elite pitcher who’s also the game’s best hitter, potential suitors must monitor the Angels in case they go 2-8 or 1-9 ahead of the deadline and things change in Anaheim.

As with all things Ohtani-related, there’s no perfect precedent here, but the closest point of comparison might be last summer’s Juan Soto trade. Though he was initially believed to be unavailable, the Padres stayed in contact with Nationals GM Mike Rizzo.

"Part of the job of the front office is trying to get a pulse on where things may go,” Padres GM A.J. Preller recalled at Rogers Centre this week. “Just making sure you're not missing out on anything. Asking questions about what direction they want to go, how they're doing and who may be available.”

Once the Nationals determined they were serious about listening to offers for Soto, they circled back with the Padres because they knew Preller was interested. 

“(Rizzo) was able to come back to us,” Preller recalled, “and say ‘hey, there's only a handful of teams we think have the prospect capital to be in this. We don't want to waste our time. And if you guys are interested where you're one of the teams that we like some of your minor-league players.’”

The job for adventurous GMs this year: tactfully making sure Perry Minasian of the Angels is aware of your team’s interest — and hoping his front office likes your prospects.

Early in Thursday's game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was picked off first base in what's becoming a needless pattern for the Blue Jays. While Guerrero Jr. would more than make up for it later with an impressive catch on a pop-up and an opposite-field home run, it prompts a wider look at the Blue Jays' baserunning.

So far this season, the Blue Jays have been caught stealing 25 times, which ranks fourth-highest in baseball. Their stolen base success rate of 74 per cent ranks fifth-last in MLB, though, and they've made 35 further outs on the bases, which is tied for third-highest in MLB (attempting to advance on a wild pitch or base hit, for instance).

All told, that’s 60 outs — more than two full games’ worth. The only team to make more outs on the bases is Cincinnati, yet the high-flying Reds also lead baseball in stolen bases. What’s done is done, but the Blue Jays would do well to stop getting in their own way and start erring on the side of caution.