Reading between the lines of Shapiro’s year-end Blue Jays availability

TORONTO – Early in Mark Shapiro's press conference Thursday, he told a story about a time his son asked him why he didn't simply tell the truth about a difficult player.

"I just can't do that," Shapiro told his son, Caden, at the time. "I'm going to have to take (the criticism) or be very vague about it. And, you know, that's just the reality. We sometimes cannot be specific about circumstances and are going to not be able to give a satisfactory answer."

Over the course of his season-end availability, there were times the Toronto Blue Jays president offered plenty of candour. He called the 2023 season "a grind," acknowledged "palpable" frustration and said it was "not acceptable" to have fallen short of expectations.

But there were other moments where Shapiro spoke in more general terms, prompting listeners to recall the anecdote with his son and read between the lines a little. With that, let’s take a closer look at some of what Shapiro said — and perhaps didn't say — at his season-ending press conference.

Before anything else was discussed, Shapiro was asked about the future of Ross Atkins, and the GM got a strong endorsement from his boss.

"The body of work to me is undeniable," Shapiro said. "Whether it's the last four having the sixth-best record in the American League, whether it's three of the last four years in the post-season, building out great resources, hiring a great leadership team that's been successful both internationally and domestically. We need to get better. Ross needs to get better, but he's done a good job and put us in position next year to be a very good team."

Taking a broad perspective, Shapiro said it was "pretty impressive" for Atkins to turn the 2015 and '16 Blue Jays into the current contender with just three losing years in between. He also backed the decision to trade Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to Arizona for Daulton Varsho, calling it a "good trade" that will require four or five years to evaluate properly.

But regardless of how that move ends up, there are areas in which the Blue Jays must improve as soon as possible. Asked how Atkins can do better, Shapiro pointed to offence and communication.

"We need to do a better job scoring runs and be better on the basepaths," he said. "And there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our game-planning process."

Reading between the lines: Shapiro's zooming out beyond the current frustration and assessing Atkins based on the last seven years. Viewed through that lens, the Blue Jays have been a good team for a few years now. They should also remain one in 2024, which is a credit to the work Atkins and the front office have done, particularly on the pitching side. But of course, no GM wants to hear their boss talking about offence and communication as areas for improvement. Both are pretty critical aspects of the role.

And speaking of high-profile Blue Jays people, Shapiro didn’t directly address the future of Don Mattingly or James Click, but they could be coveted for manager or GM jobs, respectively. Both would be permitted to discuss promotions elsewhere, as is standard policy for the Blue Jays. But if not, you can definitely expect Mattingly and Click back for 2024 as well.

The Blue Jays ranked 14th among the 30 MLB teams in runs scored this year, and got just one extra-base hit in the playoffs on their way to a single run scored. More than anything else, it was that lack of offence that undermined the Blue Jays' chances of advancing. So, what now?

On a couple of occasions, Shapiro said the Blue Jays "hit, but we didn’t score." That was seemingly a reference to the fact that they were better than average by offensive metrics like wRC+, where they ranked seventh in MLB (107) and wOBA, where they ranked 10th (.324). Some bad luck was involved and it didn't help that the Blue Jays were objectively awful on the bases from start to finish this season. 

Either way, it's results that ultimately count, and some of the Blue Jays' core players disappointed.

"Certainly there were players that fell short," Shapiro said. "We had three or four players that fell significantly short of what we projected."

When multiple players fall well short of previously established production levels, it's fair to ask whether the coaching staff is getting the most out of the roster. Just one week removed from the season's last game, the Blue Jays are still assessing how things went internally. But is Shapiro confident in his hitting coaches?

"I'm confident in the work being done. I'm confident in the energy and effort expanded," Shapiro said. "I'll wait to read everything (front office officials) produce at the end of the season, which will be an in-depth analysis."

Reading between the lines: There’s little for Shapiro to gain by calling players out by name, but when he mentions players who fell short of their projections, George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk and Daulton Varsho come to mind. All fell 30 or more points short of their ZiPS wOBA projections in 2023.

And maybe this was just one of those years. In baseball, anomalies happen. But this isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of the Blue Jays' hitting coaching, a group led by Guillermo Martinez. Shapiro's answer certainly left the door open to changes.

The Blue Jays paid MLB’s competitive balance tax for the first time ever in 2023, when they set a franchise record with a $258 million payroll, as tabulated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. While conversations with ownership are ongoing, Shapiro indicated the Blue Jays will be able to spend as usual this off-season.

"I don't expect a dramatic philosophical shift in payroll next year," Shapiro said. " I expect us to stay in the same area, and that we can support that for now."

Considering Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield, Jordan Hicks and Hyun Jin Ryu are all hitting free agency, with substantial arbitration raises coming for the likes of Guerrero Jr. and Jordan Romano, that payroll will be necessary this winter.

Reading between the lines: This isn't exactly surprising as the Blue Jays have consistently spent in recent years, but it sounds like they'll have room to pursue impact players this off-season. Unfortunately for them, it’s a "very weak free agent class," as Atkins put it. There are always opportunities, though, so the Blue Jays will be actively pursuing multiple bats at a time when three or four positions look wide open.

And if Shapiro's vague here, it's deliberate. No team wants to provide agents with extra leverage and information by announcing exactly how much they can spend.

Next year, Danny Jansen and Yusei Kikuchi hit free agency and the year after that, it’s Guerrero Jr., Romano, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio. Asked about extensions for the young core, Shapiro kept his answer broad.

"The priority is to just sustain the opportunity to win," he said. “As it pertains to where individuals fit into that, I'll leave that for Ross to discuss. But we've got to do everything humanly possible to keep that window open."

Reading between the lines: Even if the Blue Jays were closing in on an extension, they'd aim to keep things private for as long as possible. Broadly, there's not much to be gained by announcing their negotiating strategies publicly. 

But at the same time, this reply was telling. The priority, according to Shapiro, is sustaining the window of contention rather than structuring their plans around any one player.

Plus, valuing someone like Guerrero Jr. wouldn't be easy right now. He’s only 24, with incredible offensive ability, but the time for him to cash in probably isn't now, given that his season OPS was .788. That may postpone serious extension talks by at least a year, by which point he’ll be one season away from free agency.

It's still way too early to draw hard and fast conclusions about what happens from there, but it's certainly imaginable that Guerrero Jr. will end up testing the market in two years' time. And even if he stays, some considerable turnover is on its way.