Rodriguez's ability to start may make or break value of Blue Jays tenure

When the Toronto Blue Jays pursued a deal with Yariel Rodríguez they invited plenty of uncertainty into their lives.

No player is a sure thing, but Rodríguez has a wider range of outcomes than most considering he didn’t pitch in 2023 after the Chunichi Dragons refused to release him from his NPB contract — and there’s role uncertainty for him at the game’s highest level.

In MLB terms, a four-year, $32 million dollar deal is far from a colossal contract, but it won’t pay off unless Rodríguez has a notable role for the Blue Jays for years to come (the agreement has yet to be confirmed by the team and some conditions would likely have to be met first: Rodríguez would need the necessary work visas and would later have to pass a physical).

So far this off-season there have been six pitchers that have signed contracts within $10 million of Rodríguez in total dollars and $5 million in AAV. Those guys fall into two categories: back-of-the-rotation starters, and high-end relievers.

Starters

·  Kenta Maeda - Two years, $24 million

·  Tyler Mahle - Two years, $22 million

Relievers

·  Robert Stephenson - Three years, $33 million

·  Reynaldo López - Three years, $30 million

·  Yuki Matsui - Five years $28 million

·  Joe Jiménez - Three years, $26 million

Just outside of that range, you get starters like Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman on short deals making nearly $20 million per season and mid-level relievers like Emilio Pagan, who will earn the same AAV as Rodríguez over a two-year term.

The most notable difference between Rodríguez and the comparables above is that they come with a much better-defined utility than the Cuban. 

Maeda and Mahle are trustworthy veterans to fill rotation spots and the quartet of Stephenson, Lopez, Jiménez, and Matsui are the type of arms who might show up in high-leverage moments in the playoffs. Even though Matsui will be a rookie in 2024, he’s saved 95 games in Japan over the last three seasons, posting a 1.42 ERA along the way.

It’s not clear if Rodríguez fits either bucket. Concerns about workload — he’s topped 100 innings in just one of his eight pro seasons — and command make his potential as a starter cloudy. He could make an impact in relief, but he doesn’t have a track record that matches his contractual peers by any stretch of the imagination.

To the Blue Jays' way of thinking, that might be OK. 

Rodríguez could give the team the type of quality depth behind their rotation that’s hard to come by due to the difficulty of developing or acquiring optionable starters. 

He may provide some Alek Manoah insurance and give the team a few longman innings out of the pen while waiting for a health or performance issue ahead of him on the depth chart. Rodríguez might just be a better version of what the team hoped Mitch White would be.

On the other hand, it’s noteworthy that this contract means he effectively has to start at some point to make the deal worthwhile. According to FanGraphs’ fWAR-based estimates, just 16 relievers have created $32 million worth of on-field value over the last four seasons. While one of those campaigns was shortened, we are still talking about a handful of players capable of living up to the deal Rodríguez got solely in relief.

Even as a swingman, it’s tough to be worth $8 million. 

Right now FanGraphs’ Steamer projection system has Rodríguez starting six of 61 appearances for 92 innings of 4.31 ERA ball. Those aren’t world-beating numbers, but they are respectable and that performance would net out to a 0.4 fWAR. It’s hard to fairly value that with the 2024 market far from settled, but in 2023 FanGraphs valued the contributions of players producing 0.4 fWAR between $2.8 and $3.6 million.

Ross Stripling might be MLB’s quintessential swingman, and by the same metric only three of his eight seasons have been worth $8 million or more. In those three seasons, he started 60 of his 97 appearances.

If Rodríguez ever breaks through as a starter, the Blue Jays will be glad that they brought him aboard — even if that doesn’t happen in 2024. It’s possible that he bides his time in the bullpen for a year and makes the odd spot start before backfilling the departure of Yusei Kikuchi in free agency, or possibly Chris Bassitt following 2025. Any functional starter making less than $10 million has significant surplus value.

The right-hander also might settle in as a relief arm to be feared. Just because it’s unfair to project that he’ll rise to those heights based on his career thus far, it doesn’t mean that’s off the table.

When contemplating the opportunity cost of signing Rodríguez it’s also worth remembering that signing a back-end starter in free agency wouldn’t have made too much sense for a team that has four spots in its rotation locked down and wants to provide a clear avenue for Alek Manoah to take the fifth.

There’s an argument to be made that Rodríguez fits Toronto’s specific needs in a way you can’t quite capture in dollars and cents. It’s also worth remembering the same case could’ve been made for the way Daulton Varsho fit the Blue Jays prior to 2023 thanks to his left-handed bat and ability to catch — which the team never leaned on — and that acquisition hasn’t paid off yet

As flexible a pitcher as Rodríguez seems to be, the Blue Jays could’ve used the resources they put towards his signing to get someone who’d give the bullpen a significant boost, or acquire a notable position player capable of playing at least a platoon role. 

Rodríguez has interesting upside, but unless he finds his way as a starter at some point, there’s a good chance the Blue Jays regret not going in a more conventional direction.