For the Milwaukee Brewers, Monday might go down as the Eve of Destruction. Twenty-four hours before the start of their best-of-three National League wild-card series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Brewers found out they’d be without scheduled Game 2 starter Brandon Woodruff — possibly for the rest of the post-season.
The Brewers suspected there might be an issue when Woodruff suffered a loss in velocity in his last start, on Sept. 23.
Woodruff was one of the best pitchers in the majors post All-Star break, after missing four months with inflammation in the same shoulder capsule. His absence will put even more pressure on Game 1 starter Corbin Burnes. The good news? The Brewers have a filthy bullpen and maybe the filthiest closer in Devin Williams, and Freddy Peralta will be ready to step up in Woodruff’s absence. They’d better, because that offence? Woof.
The Brewers-Diamondbacks series will be of interest for Toronto Blue Jays fans because of the presence of old friends Josh Donaldson and Rowdy Tellez in the Brewers lineup and, of course, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno with the Diamondbacks.
It'll be interesting to see if this post-season turns into something of a referendum on that trade for Daulton Varsho, but in the meantime keep an eye on Joel Payamps as well: the two-time Blue Jays waiver claim has become a key part of a very good Brewers pitching staff, striking out 77 and walking 17.
Oh … and remember Jon Berti, the Blue Jays minor leaguer who former manager John Gibbons put his arm around during a pitching change, pointing up to the Rogers Centre scoreboard during a lazy September game in 2018? It was a nice moment, and if you didn’t know anything about the man, it told you all you needed to know about Gibby. But Berti’s all grown up and had an OPS of 1.193 in September. You’ll see the now-33-year-old Berti — a former 36th-round pick of the Blue Jays — at shortstop for the Miami Marlins when they open their series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Here are six others to watch in the NL wild-card series.
Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers
Even before Woodruff’s injury, Burnes’ role as Game 1 starter assumed an even greater importance because he’ll be matched up against Brandon Pfaadt, who gets the start for the Diamondbacks because Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly were needed to secure the team’s post-season berth. Their presence will give the Dbacks an edge in Games 2 and, if necessary, Game 3, so Burnes cannot stumble in the opener. The Brewers will only go as far as their pitching takes them. Might as well get it started …
Corbin Carroll, RF, Diamondbacks
I don’t watch the NL as much as I should and I’d be lying if I said that when I did, the Diamondbacks were the apple of my eye but, man, I’ve seen this kid play and read national writers saying he’s the most valuable player in the league (non-Mookie Betts/Ronald Acuna Jr. Division).
The first rookie in baseball history to hit 25 or more home runs and steal 50-plus bases, Carroll's power dropped as the season went on but he finished with a flourish: posting a season-best .311 batting average in the final month and hitting .357 in the final two weeks as the Diamondbacks went on an 8-2 run to secure a wild-card berth. His elite 30.0 ft./sec. sprint speed never slumped.
The Diamondbacks had an 85 per cent success rate on the basepaths — second-best in the majors — and the Brewers had the sixth-worst percentage throwing out baserunners.
William Contreras, C, Brewers
Blue Jays fans will no doubt be keeping an eye on Moreno, but it’s the other catcher in the series who holds the key to his team’s success.
Contreras, acquired from the Atlanta Braves when the Braves traded for Sean Murphy, slashed .291/.369/.459 with 17 home runs and was a key part of the Brewers offence and he has worked hard to upgrade himself defensively. But that will be put to the test in this series against a Diamondbacks team that is aggressive on the basepaths and creates all manner of chaos (see: above).
Contreras is one of only three Brewers everyday players with an adjusted OPS 10 percentage points above the NL average, in an offence that was 23rd in the majors in OPS.
Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies
The post-season is a time to reset, and few pitchers in the playoffs could use a reset the way Aaron Nola could use one.
Nola’s ERA is almost 1.25 runs higher than it was in 2022 and his strikeout total is the lowest since 2017 (the COVID-shortened season not included). Not exactly the way he’d planned it going into a free-agent winter.
Still, Nola did pitch in the Phillies clincher and he didn’t walk a batter over 12.2 innings in his last two starts. He knocked around in two starts against the Marlins this season, so this might be a challenge for a pitcher who combined with fellow starter Zack Wheeler to make 11 post-season starts in 2022 as the Phillies made it to the World Series.
The Marlins starters are sneaky good and Nola — whose home run per nine inning ratio was the worst of his career — can’t afford a wobble if that dream NL Championship Series matchup against the Braves is to materialize. The less drama around the Phillies, the better.
Tanner Scott, RP, Marlins
I was all set to pick Jazz Chisholm as the only Marlins player on this list because I was convinced the Marlins would be boat-raced in two games and, well, Jazz Chisholm is a show.
But my friend Jayson Stark, who has seen the Phillies more than most people, suggested to us on Blair & Barker that the Marlins' left-handed pitching could give the Phillies all sorts of trouble.
OK, I’ll play: the Marlins have six lefty pitchers — Game 1 starter Jesus Luzardo among them — and will close with another in the person of Scott, one of four lefties in the bullpen who racked up nine saves in September and led the NL in relief strikeouts with 104. I mean, I don’t want to be left out if a miracle does happen, you know? The Marlins had the worst record against teams .500 or better of any post-season team, but were 4-2 in six games at Citizens Bank Park this season and 7-6 overall in games between the two.
Trea Turner, SS, Phillies
Where have you gone, Jean Segura? Turner’s season has been a bit of a roller-coaster but the post-season is one of the reasons the team spent so much money on him this winter to add his righty bat to their bulky lefty lineup.
Turner rebounded from a sluggish first half with a .292/.348/.554 slash line in the second half, posting an OPS that was 214 points above his first-half figure. He suffered an elbow contusion on the weekend but will be good to go. Keep an eye on Turner on the basepaths: he set a record by stealing 31 bases without being caught and the Marlins allowed the second-highest stolen base rate in the NL.
BLAIR’S PICKS
Arizona def. Milwaukee, 2-1
Philadelphia def. Florida, 2-0
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