Six to watch in the ALCS: Astros, Yankees managing rest vs. rust

Of all the teams remaining in Major League Baseballs post-season, it’s safe to say nobody has walked the line between rest and rust like the Houston Astros have.

Recipients of a bye because of a division title wrapped up with weeks to spare but thrown into the maelstrom of an 18-inning game. Watching their Hall of Fame-bound, Game 1 starter suffer an uncharacteristic wobble. Participants in two one-run wins and a two-run win. A lot of leverage… but still a sweep of their American League Division Series against the Seattle Mariners, followed by three more days of waiting for the New York Yankees to finally finish off the Cleveland Guardians. When the Astros and New York Yankees meet tonight, Dusty Baker’s team will be working for just the fourth time in 14 days.

That’s not what we do in baseball.

And this ALCS isn’t going to be how we normally do the post-season, either: Friday’s travel day is the only off-day in the Series. That's a rarity… although with three games in the Bronx, who knows how weather will impact things?

Baker is a beloved figure in search of his first World Series ring as a manager and it’s safe to say that with the ability to move two of starters Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier or Jose Urquidy into a bullpen that had the second-best WHIP in the majors, he has more in-game options than just about any manager in the Division era. You can insert the usual knowing wink, here, since Baker’s use of pitching has, shall we say, attracted a great deal of attention over the course of his career.

Justin Verlander will get the start in Game 1, but Baker is keeping his options open after that. Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers, Jr., figure to be the No. 2 and 3 starters. McCullers is a better pitcher at home than on the road but it didn’t prevent Baker from starting him in Seattle.

But here’s where it gets interesting: this is a rare best-of-seven series in that there is just one off-day: Friday’s travel day to the Bronx, between Games 2 and 3. There is no off-day between Games 5 and 6. That third-game decision is key, then, because it would leave that pitcher lined up for a seventh game, but on short rest. Theoretically, at least.

That’s if everything goes according to plan — which it didn’t in Game 1 of the ALDS when Verlander gave up 10 hits and six earned runs and faced 21 batters over four innings. That was stunning, considering he owns the Mariners (5-1, 2.34 against them in the regular season) and finished the regular season by being pulled out of half his final six games while in the middle of a no-hitter. The last time Verlander allowed six earned runs in a post-season game was Game 1 of the 2006 World Series, when he was with the Detroit Tigers… but he’s now 0-3 (5.97) in his last five post-season starts.

Verlander’s start against the Mariners came on seven days rest. So will this one. He is a win away from tying John Smoltz for second place on the all-time playoff wins list with 15. Andy Pettitte leads with 19.

“I mean, let’s face it: those off-days really hurt some of the guys,” Baker said. “It hurt the pitcher’s location. It hurts the hitter’s timing. So, we’ve tried to work as hard as we can during these three, four off-days because you have to come out strong in this next series.”

Baker admitted that one of the decisions regarding his Game 3 starter involved the pitcher’s comfort level in pitching Game 7 on three days rest if necessary. But Baker gave some interesting insight into a deeper issue, going back to his days managing the San Francisco Giants. It was a peek into Baker the person.

“A lot of that depends on the strength of the person,” Baker said. “Also, you have to be aware and cognizant of the future of that player. I saw firsthand some of the outcomes of three winning years — three out of six years — with the Giants and how they possibly cut short the careers of Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum. (Madison) Bumgarner is not the same. A lot of those guys had extra innings and stress. It’s the quest for the championship, but I’m also aware of the career they’re going to have.”

Verlander said on Tuesday that he believed his substandard outing was caused by messy mechanics as opposed to extra rest. He pointed to comments from St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright, who suggested a lower-body injury had led to mechanical issues of his own.

“Any little tweaks to the lower half can have major effects upstream,” Verlander said. “I think after that (last) start, I’ve identified some stuff that was the key component. It’s just kind of deep, mechanical stuff that I probably shouldn’t really go too far into.”

It’s tough to see a scenario where Verlander needs to start on short rest — other than a calamitous run of health. Coming out of the bullpen? Given Houston's depth, it would be shocking to see that happening more than once or twice. The Yankees? They’re a mess, and could need to resort to some of that, um, creativity.

Verlander spoke in general terms about short rest, coming out of the bullpen… things like that.

“I came out of the bullpen before, in Boston, which I wouldn’t consider short rest,” Verlander said. “But I started on short rest against Tampa Bay in 2019, and I guess the thing that I felt was most impacted was my off-speed pitch. The control and the velocity were fine. The spin was a little harder to locate. Also… the next start in the regular season after that 2019 start, I blew out. I don’t know if that is correlated or not. We put it all on the line, though, and it’s kind of asking a lot of your body to do it when you’re not used to it.”

This will be the sixth consecutive ALCS for the Astros — only the Atlanta Braves of 1991-1999 have managed that feat — and it’s the third time they will meet the Yankees. They’ve yet to lose one of those series; they won’t this time, either, regardless of that battle between rust and rest.

Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros

He is one of the best post-season hitters of all time coming off an 0-for-16 ALDS, including an 0-for-8 over the 18 innings of Game 4 in which he didn’t put a ball in play until his 21st swing. That series was the first time Altuve failed to drive in a run in 17 career post-season series. And now he and his teammates will face the Yankees, who along with their fans feel wronged as a result of the well-documented Astros cheating scandal that cost jobs and irrevocably sullied the reputation of the players involved — and as a holdover from that team, Altuve is one of the faces of that scandal and a target for Yankee Stadium fans.

Altuve, who was named 2019 ALCS most valuable player when the Astros beat the Yankees in six games just weeks before former Astros pitcher Mike Fiers spilled the beans on the cheating routine to The Athletic, has worn the hatred from Yankees fans rather well: he went 5-for-14 in games at Yankee Stadium this year with two doubles and two homers.

Despite his less-than-stellar ALDS — which he has suggested stems from messy mechanics and a lack of timing — Altuve is still second all-time with 23 post-season homers (Manny Ramirez leads with 29 in 103 more at-bats), third in runs scored, fourth in total bases and ninth with 92 hits. Altuve has a post-season OPS of .868.

Yordan Alvarez, LF, Astros

Going back to the 2019 World Series, Alvarez has hit five homers, five doubles, two triples and drawn 18 walks in 107 post-season plate appearances. He’s the new 'Big Papi' and Barry Bonds combined.

I mean, sometimes the story’s right in front of you. The AL Most Valuable Player should be Aaron Judge. It could be Shohei Ohtani. It won’t be Alvarez, but in another year and another time? Man. And my sense is Alvarez is the single most frightening hitter left in these playoffs. Ask Seattle Mariners manager Scott Servais.

"I don’t recall ever seeing him being off-balance on a swing," Astros studio analyst Mike Stanton told us on Blair & Barker earlier in these playoffs.

Those who watch Alvarez on a regular basis talk about his awareness of his upper body, lower body and swing and how for a big man he has a finely-tuned understanding of how it all works. There’s some heavy, heavy hitters going on display in this series and Alvarez comes in having walked off Game 1 of the ALDS and adding another homer — a go-ahead blast — in Game 2, making him the first Major Leaguer to hit multiple go-ahead homers in the sixth inning when their team was trailing.

Alvarez’s heroics in Game 1 recalled names such as Kirk Gibson, Joe Carter and Lenny Dykstra — players who’ve had the clutchest of clutch post-season hits. Like other Astros’ hitters, his overall numbers for the post-season are less gaudy than they might be because of that 18-inning, 1-0 win (he was 0-for-7 with two strikeouts) but this is a player who was chosen MVP In last year’s ALCS. Don’t bet against him doing it again in 2022: he has six homers in 39 at-bats against pitchers currently on the Yankees roster.

Oswaldo Cabrera, IF-OF, Yankees

Congratulations, kid. Nobody expected you to be a regular in the Majors yet here you are: the first player in Yankees history to start at four different positions in your first six games en route to appearing at six different positions in 46 games; getting moved into Derek Jeter’s old spot in an elimination game in the ALDS because your manager liked your ability to handle the moment more than Isaiah Kiner-Falefa — who was benched.

You didn’t do much offensively: 2-for-19 with eight strikeouts but one of those hits made you the fifth Yankee to homer in the playoffs before his 24th birthday — that Jeter guy was one of them. You finished the deciding game of the ALDS in left field in part because of your role in a collision that sent Aaron Hicks to the medical room for an MRI and out of the post-season for good.

They say the ball finds you, especially in the playoffs. Will you be in left field? Shortstop? We’ll see. In the meantime… enjoy, kiddo!

Gerrit Cole, RHP, Yankees

Leaving aside the potential for weather to disrupt things when the series shifts to the Bronx, I’ll just say this right now: if this thing goes seven games we’ll see Cole join the ranks of great post-season starters to have made appearances out of the bullpen.

Cole, we’re led to believe, was available to close out the fifth and deciding game of the ALDS. As it stands now, the lack of an off-day means the Yankees would need Cole to make at least one of his starts on short rest if manager Aaron Boone wants to get two starts out of him. Or… given the brittleness of the Yankees bullpen and the red flags around Clay Holmes — hands up if you thought you’d ever see the day when Wandy Peralta would be appearing in every game of an ALDS for the New York freaking Yankees — might Boone elect to get creative with Cole’s swing and miss stuff?

Randy Johnson. Nathan Eovaldi. Madison Bumgarner. Max Scherzer. Charlie Morton. Chris Sale. Pedro Martinez. Among others, they’ve all had post-season series with a start and a relief appearance — albeit with mixed results. The Astros aren’t the Cleveland Guardians: they can score early and often and if Boone’s hand is forced he might need to be creative — and Cole and Luis Severino are his best arms, with Severino’s health likely mitigating against too much experimenting.

Cole was 2-0 in the ALDS, logging seven innings and allowing two runs in Game 4 to force Tuesday night’s fifth and deciding game. In the process, he joined Chris Carpenter, David Wells and Dave Stewart as pitchers to have won 10 of their first 16 post-season starts. Only Verlander (13) and Clayton Kershaw (10) have more than Cole’s run of nine consecutive starts with eight strikeouts, and his 127 strikeouts are the most by any pitcher through his first 16 career playoff starts. Cole has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his starts. If the Yankees only use him once this series, it will likely mean they’ve been swept.

Luis Garcia, RHP, Astros

Pedro Martinez would later say that he "put his career in jeopardy" in Game 5 of the 1999 American League Division Series, when he made a four-inning relief appearance against Cleveland, throwing from a lower arm angle with a 90 m.p.h fastball after leaving an earlier start due to a lower back issue. Martinez faced just three batters over the minimum in six innings, striking out eight. That was the only other time a pitcher has made a relief appearance of at least five shutout innings in an ALDS the way Garcia did in that 18-inning marathon 1-0 win over the Seattle Mariners — like Martinez, in a series-clinching game.

Garcia racked up six strikeouts and threw 64 pitches, 44 of them for strikes. It was only the 15th time in baseball history that a reliever picked up a post-season win — in any series — with an appearance of at least five shutout innings. Garcia’s role in this series will be intriguing: he was dominant in the regular season but lefty hitters hit almost 70 points higher against him and when the ball is put in play it’s usually a fly ball, which can be a mixed blessing against this Yankees lineup.

Much has been made of the Astros' starting pitching depth and the trickle-down impact on the bullpen. One way or another Garcia’s put himself in a position to write his name large in this series. Again weather permitting, there’s only one day of rest in the ALCS and Garcia could play a role in allowing Verlander and Framber Valdez to make starts on regular rest.

Giancarlo Stanton, DH-OF, Yankees

Oh hell, let’s just roll the credits, shall we? Stanton’s three-run homer in Game 5 of the ALDS was his 11th in 77 post-season at-bats and in his 23rd game, tying Carlos Beltran for the most homers in a player's first 23 playoff appearances. It was his third homer in a "winner-take-all" game, tying a list that includes Yogi Berra. Babe Ruth is the only other Yankees player with 10 homers in a span of 15 playoff games and Stanton now has as more post-season homers than Lou Gehrig.

I know, I know. We’re having fun. Berra, Gehrig and Ruth didn’t play as many post-season games each season (for example, Ruth’s 11 homers over 15 games encompassed six years, from Game 4 of the 1926 World Series to Games 3 of the 1932 Series) but it’s just fun to see those names materialize on the screen. In a more modern context, Stanton has more homers in the playoffs than Paul O’Neill (who is in Monument Park) and Alex Rodriguez (who is on TV). Yogi and Reggie are next in line on the Yankees' all-time post-season home run list, which is led by Bernie Williams with 22.

If the Yankees had won a World Series or two in his time, Stanton would be loved in the Bronx. If Judge is going to continue to strike out (and I wonder whether the whole Maris chase hasn’t taken something out of him), Stanton’s going to need to keep supplying the power and leading the supporting cast. If Boone is smart, he’ll forget playing him in left.

JEFF BLAIR’S PICK: Astros in five.