Twins or Rays: Which poison should Blue Jays pick?

The Toronto Blue Jays are on the verge of a playoff berth. After taking care of business on Friday night against the Tampa Bay Rays, a win on Saturday — or a Seattle Mariners loss —would officially seal it.

At the risk of “putting the cart ahead of the horse,” as Blue Jays manager John Schneider likes to say, let’s take a look ahead at who the club could play if they indeed reach the post-season.

Should the Blue Jays finish in the second wild-card spot, where they are now, they’ll visit the Rays in Tampa for next week’s three-game wild-card series. Should they fall to No. 3 in the wild card, a date with the Minnesota Twins at Target Field would be set.

So, which of those opponents presents an easier match for the Blue Jays? If you simply look at their records, then it’s a no-brainer — you pick the Twins (86-74) over the Rays (97-63), right?

Not so fast.

The wild-card leading Rays, in Toronto this weekend for the final series of the regular season, are dealing with several injuries to key players. Meanwhile, the Twins, winners of the AL Central, have been hitting extremely well lately and boast a strong trio at the top of their rotation.

There are definitely some catch-22 vibes here and declaring a firm answer to the quandary doesn't make much sense. With that said, let's dive into the specifics, so you can draw your own conclusion.

RECORDS VS. BLUE JAYS

The Twins are 3-3 against the Blue Jays this season, outscoring the Blue Jays by a 28-26 margin in those six games.

The Rays, who lost on Friday to the Blue Jays and have two more games to play against them, are 5-6 and have scored 51 runs while allowing 74.

RAKING AT THE RIGHT TIME

The Twins' offence has seemingly peaked at the right time, becoming a force in September. Over the past 30 days, the club ranks second in MLB in runs (159), third in OPS (.813) and fifth in home runs (42).

Their power surge has been spread across the lineup with Royce Lewis launching six homers this month, while Quebec native Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, Jorge Polanco and Ryan Jeffers collected four each.

The Twins lineup features other threats, such as Max Kepler and star shortstop Carlos Correa, who’s been out since Sept. 18 with plantar fasciitis, but is expected to return in time for Game 1.

Lewis (left hamstring strain) and Byron Buxton (right hamstring strain) are both on the IL, but could potentially return in the wild-card series.

RAYS INFIRMARY

Speaking of missing players, that's the main storyline surrounding the Rays at the moment.

You're probably aware of this, but let's just offer a rundown of players the club will be without as it heads into October:

-- Brandon Lowe (right patella fracture)

-- Wander Franco (administrative leave)

-- Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery)

-- Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery)

-- Drew Rasmussen (right flexor strain)

-- Garrett Cleavinger (right knee sprain)

And here are the maybes:

-- Jose Siri (right hand fracture)

-- Luke Raley (cervical strain)

-- Jason Adam (left oblique)

Despite all of that, though, this is a club that has always found ways to win despite who's wearing the jersey. Their 97 wins this season represent the second-most in franchise history, their record at Tropicana Field is a dominant 53-28 and manager Kevin Cash has been deliberate in introducing some of his younger players to the spotlight during the September pennant race.

“They’re getting opportunities right now, and you’ve got to learn quick on the fly,” Cash said recently, according to MLB.com. “I'd like to think that all these at-bats, all these ground balls, all these reps are going to help them — and there's no doubt we're going to need their help. 

“I think our best thing we can do is get them as comfortable as possible and let them embrace the moment."

EVALUATING THE STARTING PITCHING

The Rays' playoff rotation potentially begins with Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow and Aaron Civale, while the Twins would likely start Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan.

No matter which way you slice it, those are six solid starters capable of shutting down an opposing lineup, especially one whose best hitters are right-handed, such as the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays' top three starters — Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt — have been phenomenal this year, but there are scenarios where both the Twins and the Rays could neutralize the Blue Jays' rotation, which is the team's clear strength.

Let's apply some context to give you an idea of just how good the Blue Jays' competition can be:

The Twins trio of Gray (5.3), Lopez (4.5) and Ryan (2.2) have accounted for 12 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs.

Meanwhile, Rays righties Zach Eflin (4.8), Tyler Glasnow (3.2) and Aaron Civale (2.5) have accumulated 10.5 WAR.

Gausman (5.3), Berrios (3.0) and Bassitt (2.7) have combined for 11 WAR.

You could make the argument the Twins pitchers have faced easier competition in the AL Central than their AL East counterparts, however in the playoffs, those kinds of arguments hold less weight.

So, if you're a Blue Jays fan, which poison are you picking?