Using past deadlines to understand Blue Jays' 2024 options

TORONTO — While discussing his approach to next month’s trade deadline, Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said the team hopes to add, but will be prepared to adjust if needed. And while there’s a tendency to categorize teams as either buyers or sellers, Atkins sounded like someone who sees room for maneuvering between those two extremes.

“We're prepared to take two different angles – or really three,” he said Thursday afternoon. “We're focused on winning. We're focused on building the best possible team and supporting it in the best possible way we can. And if we get to a point where we need to adjust we’ll be prepared to do so.”

Between buying and selling, there’s also holding — a possible nightmare scenario for a 37-44 team with remote chances of winning now and a need for talent in 2025 and beyond. To let this deadline pass without improving this team’s future would make an already frustrating season even worse and represent a massive missed opportunity.

To be fair, though, no one’s saying the Blue Jays will hold indefinitely. By July 30, they’ll have a better sense of where this team stands. Likely, that means they should sell. But there’s some nuance here, and we don’t have to look any further than Atkins’ trade record for examples of what that could look like. 

Using recent Blue Jays history as our guide, here’s a look at some different deadline approaches Atkins could take – and whether they’re actually advisable:

MAKE NEED-FOR-NEED TRADES

Past template: In July of 2021, the Blue Jays had ample power but not enough relief pitching, so they acquired Trevor Richards and Bowden Francis for Rowdy Tellez in a deal that’s worked out well for both sides. Tellez hit 35 home runs for the 2022 Brewers while Richards and Francis have helped the Blue Jays’ pitching staff.  

A 2024 hypothetical: Trading away Kevin Kiermaier for a struggling but promising reliever who’s controllable beyond 2024.

Advantages: Not only would the Blue Jays acquire a player for the future, they’d give themselves a chance to augment the 2024 team, too.

Disadvantages: If 2024 looks like a lost season a month from now, there’s not much difference between, say, 85 losses and 87 losses.

Verdict: This works best when both teams are contending, so if the Blue Jays have a good month and are hovering around .500 this type of deal may be worth considering. But if they remain out of contention, they should be prioritizing the future, not trying to make 2024 marginally better.

BUY… BUT JUST THE SCRAPS

Past template: In 2016, as part of a bigger deadline overhaul, the Blue Jays acquired Jason Grilli (5.29 ERA) for Sean Ratcliffe and Joaquin Benoit (5.18 ERA) for Drew Storen. Upon arriving in Toronto both Grilli (3.64 ERA) and Benoit (0.38 ERA) performed much better, giving the Blue Jays bullpen upgrades that cost next to nothing.

A 2024 hypothetical: Acquire a struggling reliever like Nick Mears (6.37 ERA, 3.60 xERA) from the Rockies or Justin Wilson (5.40 ERA, 2.30 xERA) from the Reds.

Advantages: The cost is far lower here and the upside is real.

Disadvantages: Eight or 10 years ago, many GMs in charge still cared a lot about ERA, creating opportunity to buy low on pitchers with inflated back-of-the-baseball-card stats but still-impressive skillsets. In 2024, though, these buy-low trades have never been harder to pull off. If it looks like you’re acquiring someone else’s scraps, that’s probably what you’re getting.

Verdict: Monitoring the waiver wire and the DFA pool is always a good idea. That's how the Dodgers found Evan Phillips and Phil Bickford, how the Rays found Zack Littell and how the Brewers found Joel Payamps. So absolutely — go for it. But giving up anything of substance wouldn’t be a good idea, nor would it be wise to let an acquisition like this prevent the Blue Jays from selling other players to improve beyond 2024.

SELL, BUT GET BIG-LEAGUERS BACK

Past template: In 2017, the Astros wanted an electric left-handed arm for their bullpen and the Blue Jays were willing to part with Francisco Liriano. In return, they received two big-league outfielders: Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernández. While Aoki was soon forgotten in Toronto, Hernández would become a core player for the Blue Jays, and he now ranks 12th on the franchise’s all-time home run leaderboard.

A 2024 hypothetical: Trade Yusei Kikuchi for a starting pitching prospect who has already debuted at the MLB level plus a second big-league piece like an out-of-options reliever or a minor leaguer who must soon be added to the 40-man roster. 

Advantages: Given that the Blue Jays intend to compete in 2025, big-leaguers are more useful than lower-level prospects who may never impact the major-league team.

Disadvantages: While the Liriano for Hernández trade now looks like Atkins’ best, there’s a counter-example that reminds us how trading for so-called high-floor, big-league ready players comes with its own kind of risk. In 2018, the Blue Jays sent J.A. Happ to the Yankees for Billy McKinney and Brandon Drury while missing a chance to augment the system with higher upside players who were further away.

Verdict: All things being equal, take the players who are closer to the major leagues. Sometimes a change of scenery or expanded opportunity is all that’s needed. But it would be a strategic mis-step to get too focused on MLB players if better offers are available for high-impact prospects further from the big-league level. 

THE PATH AHEAD

For now, Atkins is holding onto hope that the Blue Jays can go on a Mets or Astros-like streak that would justify buying, not selling. That possibility now looks remote, though, and would require a sudden and sustained win streak.

Technically speaking, it’s possible to succeed with deals in the murky in-between, as these past examples show. But these moves are tough to execute, and if the Blue Jays’ position in the standings doesn’t change considerably in the next month, their approach won’t need to be so nuanced. It’ll simply be time to sell and retool for 2025.