What are realistic expectations for Blue Jays rookie Alan Roden?

The roster the Toronto Blue Jays will begin their 2025 season with is full of established veterans and known quantities.

Of the 26 players who will be active for Thursday’s opener against the Baltimore Orioles, 23 of them fit at least one of the two following criteria:

1. They are 28 years old or older
2. They have at least four full years of MLB service time.

While there are some high-variance players in that bunch — like late bloomer Bowden Francis or Bo Bichette coming off a nightmare 2024 — the team has a solid idea of what to expect from the vast majority of its players this season.

The one player who enters 2025 with the most mystery surrounding them is the only Blue Jay who has yet to appear at the major-league level: Alan Roden.

Roden is coming off a scorching spring that saw him slash .407/.541/.704 with more walks (six) than strikeouts (four), and his production at every level of the minor leagues has been impressive since his first pro season in 2023, posting a wRC+ between 133 and 150 at four different stops.

At the same time, the outfielder was born the same year as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and has consistently been on the older side for the levels he’s appeared at. The 25-year-old’s calling card as a prospect is his advanced approach rather than any loud, carrying tools.

It’s difficult to predict what players with that profile will do at the highest level. Projection systems tend to love them based on their statistical output, but the jump from triple-A to the majors is a big one, and sometimes they have limitations that rise to the surface when they are no longer feasting on less experienced opposition.

Cavan Biggio is an example of a Blue Jays prospect who put up dominant numbers in the high minors approaching his mid-twenties despite a lack of eye-popping tools, who ultimately didn’t develop into an impact bat (despite a fine start to his career).

More recently, the Blue Jays have had some success with this archetype with Spencer Horwitz and Will Wagner. Although the story on those two hasn’t been written yet, taking a look at how Roden compares to them should help give a sense of what it may be fair to expect from the outfielder.

Double-A Stats

Horwitz is the clear standout at this level, which explains why he spent so little time there, but Roden’s numbers are awfully similar to Wagner’s in both stylistically and in terms of overall effectiveness. It’s notable that Roden only got one look at triple-A. Most of Wagner and Horwitz’s numbers come from when they were both older and had more experience at the level. While Wagner hit the ground running, Horwitz got off to a modest start in his first taste, posting a 101 wRC+ in 202 plate appearances in 2022.

Triple-A Stats

While Roden can’t match Wagner’s overall numbers or mastery of the strike zone, his numbers stack up well here. He was more productive than Horwitz overall, and showed by far the most power of the group.

These numbers (outside of Horwitz’s) come from small samples, so it’s also helpful to look under the hood a little bit, as Statcast has been available at triple-A since 2023. That weeds out Horwitz’s work in 2022, but gives us a sense of whether Roden has a little more pop than his counterparts.

Triple-A Statcast Numbers

Once again, Roden is fairly similar to Horwitz and Wagner, with the now-Pittsburgh Pirate showing off the most game power with notably higher hard-hit and barrel rates than the other two.

Where Roden stands out is his max exit velocity, which demonstrates that his raw power is above average. Last season, 405 MLB hitters put at least 100 balls in play, and less than a quarter of them (98) hit a ball harder than 112.2 mph. Only two Blue Jays — Guerrero and Alejandro Kirk — topped that number.

Although this power has yet to manifest in an explosive way at the pro level, if his offensive development allows him to draw on it further, it could help him avoid being labelled as a player with limited power at a non-premium defensive position. For now, the power is largely speculative, and there isn’t a projection system at FanGraphs that has him producing an ISO better than .130 in 2025.

The fact that Roden shares several similarities with Horwitz and Wagner — both in terms of minor-league production and contact metrics — doesn’t tell us anything definitive about what he’ll do for the Blue Jays. It’s certainly a positive that he’s in line with players who’ve combined to hit .272/.352/.432 in the first 511 plate appearances of their careers, but the jury is still out on that duo.

What these similarities demonstrate is that Roden matches the pair both in terms of style and substance. For the most part, he comes with the same promise and similar concerns, but it will be worth monitoring if a slight power boost can nudge his ceiling higher than his comparables.