What are the most realistic free agent landing spots for Shohei Ohtani?

SCOTTSDALE, ARIZ. — Every off-season brings its own kind of intrigue, with off-field hires and unexpected trades contributing to the drama. 

It all starts this week at MLB’s annual GM Meetings, with qualifying offers and 2024 option decisions due Monday, but it’s already safe to say this coming winter will be defined by a single moment: the one where Shohei Ohtani chooses his next team.

At 29 years old, he’s very much in his prime, both as a hitter (44 HR, .304/.412/.654 batting line) and a pitcher (3.14 ERA, 132 innings, 167 Ks). After undergoing elbow surgery, he won’t pitch in 2024, but he can still be an elite designated hitter before returning to the mound in 2025.

That skillset will make him the most coveted free agent in years, and has led to speculation about MLB’s first $500 million contract. But rival agents suggest Ohtani is not simply motivated by money, citing his choice to take a $30 million arbitration deal last winter instead of pushing for even greater gains in a hearing, as well as his decision to join MLB as soon as possible instead of waiting and signing for more.

So what does motivate Ohtani? As he pushed himself through cramps and fatigue last summer, there was no doubting his desire to win. In free agency, that’s likely to be a driving force behind his decision. All things being equal, some believe he’d prefer to remain on the West Coast (though his agents will surely want East Coast teams bidding, too).

Six years ago, Ohtani had interest from a wide range of teams (including the Blue Jays) before narrowing the field to seven finalists, all of which host spring training in Arizona: the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Rangers and Cubs. And remember, there was no National League DH at the time, giving American League teams an edge.

Now, the Angels appear to be on the outside looking in, creating an opening for the teams that missed out in 2017. Starting with some long shots and working our way to the favourite, here’s a look at the top contenders for one of the most intriguing free agents in MLB history:

Boston Red Sox
A deal this scale comes from ownership, not a first-year GM like Craig Breslow. But since Red Sox ownership has zigzagged so much in recent years, they can’t be ruled out here. Their previous baseball ops leader, Chaim Bloom, traded Mookie Betts to the Dodgers, apparently with the blessing of ownership. Could team owners John Henry and Tom Werner decide to bolster a promising young core with baseball’s best player? They certainly have the resources to do so, creating an opportunity.

New York Mets
Even if the Mets sold at the deadline, owner Steve Cohen can’t be ruled out on any elite free agent, especially one as unique as Ohtani. Even if the Mets won’t be favoured to win the division in 2024, they’re intent on winning soon and Ohtani would help accelerate their timeline. At the same time, it’s unclear how appealing he’ll consider the Mets after a 75-87 season during which they sold at the trade deadline.

Chicago Cubs
Back in 2017, the Cubs were the lone team from an East or Central division to rank among Ohtani’s finalists. Now, they’re looking to build on an 83-win season but they’ll need to be active with veterans Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman set to hit free agency.

Jed Hoyer, the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, was there when the Cubs first pitched Ohtani on Chicago. Six years later, he may get the chance to try again — and this time there’s a DH spot available, a change that could nudge teams like the Cubs, Giants, Padres and Dodgers forward, compared to 2017.

San Diego Padres
Padres ownership has been willing to spend aggressively in recent years, landing Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts in free agency while signing Fernando Tatis Jr. to a $340 million extension. And it’s not just ownership — GM A.J. Preller likes stars and thinks big.

On paper, then, the Padres look like a viable contender for Ohtani, with many of the same SoCal benefits the Angels offered but a far stronger supporting cast.

Seattle Mariners
At the All-Star Game last July, Mariners fans showered Ohtani with attention, chanting ‘Come to Seattle’ at various points. And as it turns out, the interest is reciprocated, at least to an extent.

"I’ve actually spent a couple off-seasons in Seattle,” Ohtani said via interpreter at the time. “I like the city, it’s good.”

Seattle hasn’t typically been the biggest free-agent spender, but they do have a rich history of landing Japanese players, including Kazuhiro Sasaki, Kenji Johjima, Hisashi Iwakuma and, of course, Ichiro Suzuki. Even from a roster standpoint, there’s a fit here, as Seattle has all kinds of pitching for 2024 and could withstand a year of DH-only production better than most.

San Francisco Giants
Last off-season, the Giants were serious bidders for Aaron Judge only to see the Bay Area native return to the Yankees. Some in the industry believe Judge was always going to return to the Yankees, and that the Giants were simply used to boost his price tag.

A year later, the Giants will surely want to avoid a similar fate, and it’s widely expected they’ll have interest, as recently hired manager Bob Melvin acknowledged when asked about the possibility of landing Ohtani, Blake Snell or Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

“We’ll see, right?” Melvin said, as reported by the Mercury News. “Those are all pretty good players. We’d like to have every one of them. But financially, that’s a stretch. All those guys will be talked about and hopefully I have an impact on that and we’ll see how it goes.”

Texas Rangers
The ultimate recruiting tool is winning, and it’s hard to do better than a World Series championship. Plus, Texas has spent big in recent years, committing half a billion to Marcus Semien and Corey Seager before landing Jacob deGrom on a $185 million deal that hasn’t worked out as well. Clearly, owners Ray Davis and Bob Simpson don’t mind spending.

While Dallas is far from the West Coast, the Rangers do train in Arizona, allowing for some continuity for Ohtani. Adding to the familiarity, manager Bruce Bochy has tried to recruit Ohtani once before when he was the Giants’ manager.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Of all the possible fits for Ohtani, the Dodgers may be the most likely. Their regular-season results are unsurpassed, but there’s still a chance for Ohtani to create a lasting legacy with success in October. Not only can they afford Ohtani, they can surround him with other premium players. And from a lifestyle standpoint, he’s already familiar with Los Angeles, so the transition would be smooth.

If another team out-bids the Dodgers by a substantial margin, that money might be tough to decline. But if the Dodgers are in the same range as other teams, it’s hard to see him turning down the chance to join Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman on a team with a legitimate chance to win multiple World Series titles.

Long shots: Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies.