What does the Blue Jays' early off-season look like?

TORONTO — Some seasons build to a climactic moment that’s remembered — fondly or otherwise — for years to come. And then you have the 2024 Blue Jays, a disappointing team that sputtered to the finish Sunday afternoon and ended the season with a third consecutive loss to the Miami Marlins.

The Blue Jays finish the season 74-88, last in the American League East. While they end up with the seventh-worst record in baseball, they have the fifth-best odds of securing the No. 1 overall pick in December’s draft lottery (7.48 per cent) because the White Sox and Athletics are ineligible to pick first, thanks to MLB's rule preventing teams that don't receive revenue sharing from getting a lottery selection in consecutive drafts. 

That’s still a few months off, though, and those results are entirely out of the team’s control. In the meantime, there’s still lots for the Blue Jays to do — even in the month or so remaining before free agency opens. Starting with the players and moving to the manager and front office, let’s look at the immediate next steps for the Blue Jays:

PLAYERS: REST AND REHAB

As the season came to an end, Bo Bichette (finger) could be spotted at Rogers Centre with his right hand wrapped up, Will Wagner (knee) was walking around on crutches and Daulton Varsho (shoulder) was sidelined from baseball activities after undergoing surgery. Meanwhile, pitchers Jordan Romano and Alek Manoah continued rehabbing their respective elbow injuries away from the team.

The next step for that group is simple: rest and recover. And realistically, the same logic applies to those who made it through the season healthy. Six months of near-daily games takes a toll mentally and physically, and many players dedicate a few weeks to recovery early in the off-season.

On the other hand, some players want even more reps. Leo Jimenez, Luis De Los Santos and Steward Berroa are all considering winter ball, and those decisions could be finalized in the next few weeks. But eventually, the off-season will ramp up again with players plunging back into more intense workouts and keeping tabs on transactions from afar.

“I’ll check the trade rumours in case I’m in them, but hopefully won’t obsess over it too much,” one player said.

MANAGER: EXIT MEETINGS AND OFF-SEASON CHECK-INS

As the season came to an end, manager John Schneider and his staff started meeting with players in person to make sure they’re aligned on goals for the off-season. In the course of those meetings, the Blue Jays shared objective data on offence, defence and baserunning — with more available upon request.

“It's happening quicker than I would have hoped, obviously,” Schneider said this past weekend. “In years past, you never know when the season is going to end. (This year), you want to try to do that in person as much as you can without letting (players) get their foot off the gas.”

Before heading home to Florida, Schneider will remain in Toronto for the early part of this week and his conversations with players or staff will continue from Rogers Centre. At some point, Schneider will also connect with GM Ross Atkins to compare notes on what’s next for the players and the coaching staff.

"I've had conversations with Ross already, and we'll have more (talks) into next week about what the first part of the off-season looks like,” Schneider said. 

Decades ago players and coaches might have had full work-life separation over the winter, but those lines are now blurred. Compared to the stress of daily games, the off-season still offers a mental break, but players are still expected to stay in shape and stay in touch with the coaching staff.

At first, Schneider aims to give his players space, but after October the Blue Jays connect “at least a couple times a month with everybody.” Some of those conversations are simply over text, but a lot of it happens at the Blue Jays’ player development complex in Dunedin, Florida.

Many Blue Jays spend the off-season within driving distance of the PDC, allowing them to use “all the resources that they may not have other places” while spending time with staff and teammates. Coaches including DeMarlo Hale, Pete Walker and Gil Kim are in Florida for some or all of the winter, along with the team’s strength and conditioning staff. 

“Listening to (players) that were here for the first time in spring, they're like, ‘Wow, this is this is like baseball nirvana for an off-season.’” Schneider said. “I mean, it's got everything you need.”

Early in the off-season, Schneider works from the PDC once or twice per week, but that frequency gradually ramps up until he’s there every morning except Tuesdays, when he can usually be found on the golf course.

FRONT OFFICE: PERSONNEL DECISIONS AND OFF-SEASON PLANNING

Remember four years ago, when the Blue Jays signed Robbie Ray to a free-agent deal on Nov. 7 on the way to a Cy Young season? That deal doesn’t happen unless a clear off-season plan is already in place by the time free agency opens, which is why the next few weeks are so important for the Blue Jays ahead of a high-stakes winter.

This is the time to learn everything they can about free agents and identify the best fits for the 2025 Blue Jays. No detail is too small to consider, whether it’s a hitter’s tendencies against four-seam fastballs or a pitcher’s stated preference for teams that make their spring homes in Florida. More information now can lead to a more targeted approach when free agency opens, ideally leading to a better roster in 2025.

It’s also time to review the depth charts of the 29 other big-league organizations to identify trade possibilities ahead of next month’s GM Meetings. And internally, the Blue Jays need to decide on the structure of next year’s coaching staff while back-filling some key front-office roles, including their vacant director of pitching development position. It’s a lot to do.

Of course that’s all assuming that Atkins is returning as GM, and while he’s under contract through 2026 and seems likely to return, president Mark Shapiro didn’t definitely say that Atkins would return when asked last month. One way or another, there should be clarity soon, as the Blue Jays are expected to hold a season-ending availability with Shapiro and/or Atkins sometime this week.