Kevin Gausman’s best weapon is indisputably his splitter, but his four-seam fastball is critical to his success.
The right-hander throws it approximately half the time (between 48.8 and 52.9 percent of the past five seasons), and he needs it to get ahead in counts and establish a legitimate threat his splitter can play off of.
When Gausman had a down year in 2024, one of the most common explanations offered was a dip in his velocity as his average four-seam fell to 94.0 m.p.h., a noticeable decrease from 2023 (94.7 m.p.h.) and 2022 (95.0 m.p.h.).
It wasn’t a shocking decrease for a pitcher in his age-33 season, but it was notable, particularly early in the season when Gausman sat below 93.5 m.p.h. in four of his first six starts and managed a 4.50 ERA with an uncharacteristic 7.39 K/9 in that time.
While flagging velo wasn’t the only issue Gausman encountered in 2024, it seemed to make a difference, which is why the juice he’s demonstrated early in spring training has been encouraging for the Toronto Blue Jays.
In his first two Grapefruit League outings, Gausman is averaging 95.0 m.p.h. on his four-seamer, hinting at a return to form in 2025.
To understand how much a velocity bounce-back could benefit the veteran starter, the best place to look is his performance when he’s wielded 95 m.p.h. heat in recent seasons.
In Gausman's three years with the Blue Jays, he’s averaged 95 in 35 different starts. Here’s how the results in those outings break down by season:
The first thing that draws the eye is the ERA of 4.21, significantly higher than his total ERA in that time (3.45). It would be a stretch to say that throwing harder definitively makes him worse, but it is fair to be skeptical that it can be a massive needle mover.
During outings when Gausman has had strong velocity, the largest benefit is an improved strikeout rate, with his K/9 sitting well above his average over the past three seasons (10.05). That improvement has come without a notable jump in walk rate or home runs allowed — a metric that often works as a handy proxy for command because poorly located balls are the pitches most likely to clear the fence.
So, Gausman’s peripherals are better when his velocity is up, driven by an increase in strikeouts, but the results haven’t necessarily followed in a relatively sizeable sample.
Looking at how much getting his fastball up around 95 m.p.h. on a per-pitch level reveals similar results. Here’s what’s happened to Gausman’s softer and harder fastballs since 2022:
95+ m.p.h.
≤ 94 m.p.h.
The harder heaters generate more whiffs and fewer balls, but the softer fastballs result in so many more called strikes that it’s hard to say they’re less effective. Gausman’s CSW% (called + swinging strike rate) of 35.5 per cent when he’s below 95 m.p.h. has been significantly higher than when he’s above (28.8).
It’s tough to make the argument that Gausman is more effective when his fastball is less powerful, and the bat-missing boost from additional heat is critical for a pitcher who isn’t adept at inducing soft contact.
At the same time, if throwing as hard as possible was truly the key to Gausman’s game, we would’ve seen more evidence of that during his time as a Blue Jay.
There is no downside to the strength Gausman is demonstrating early in the spring, but how his splitter looks is likely to be more telling. In recent years, its vertical drop and whiff rate have declined in unison.
In his two spring training outings, that vertical drop sits at an average of 28.5 inches, although he’s thrown it slightly harder than he did last season (87.2 m.p.h. vs. 86.0 m.p.h.), which could compensate for that change. Its effectiveness will also be driven by how often it gets opponents to chase, and that will take some time to reveal itself.
It's not surprising that we don't have answers on that count, and we might not before the regular season opens. More often than not, spring doesn’t provide enough runway for clear-cut takeaways, but something like fastball velocity can be an exception. It doesn’t take a large sample to see that a pitcher is throwing harder, and that’s generally understood to be an impactful change.
In the case of Gausman, things are a little murkier. A velocity rebound is a positive development for him, but the magnitude of the impact is up for debate.
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