What needs to go right for the Blue Jays in the second half

As the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays take a breather during the All-Star Break, they do so as a good team with the potential to be great.

While some of the discourse surrounding the club has been disproportionately negative, there is no doubt that its .549 winning percentage is at least mildly disappointing. 

Coming into the season this team was billed as a group ready to challenge for a division title and make the first deep playoff push of the Bo Bichette-Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era.

Whether by record, basic statistical measures, or even a more subjective appraisal, that’s not how they’ve looked so far. Even so, the 2023 season is far from over, and although 91 games may seem like enough to judge a team by, there is plenty of time for these Blue Jays to rewrite their narrative.

The 2021 World Series champion Atlanta Braves were 44-45 at the break. The 2019 Washington Nationals won it all after sitting at 47-42. The 2022 Philadelphia Phillies squad that made the World Series started 49-43. The teams that are most dangerous in the end don’t always look that way at this time of year.

It’s no certainty that the Blue Jays are a late bloomer like those examples, but it can’t be ruled out either. Here are a few things that need to go right for Toronto to improve in the second half of 2023.

Manoah’s return to the major leagues on July 7 was encouraging as the big right-hander gave the team six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts, but it provided no guarantees that he’s his old self once again.

Before he was demoted to the minors, he had a few strong outings sprinkled in amongst his difficult starts — and the Detroit Tigers lineup did not present much of a test. His velocity did not return to his 2022 levels, and the lack of horizontal movement on his slider persisted.

It was undoubtedly a step in the right direction, but the team can’t be sure what it’s going to get from Manoah from here on out. 

The difference between his 2022 and 2023 has played an enormous role in the Blue Jays’ failure to meet expectations this year. While team records when an individual starter pitches can be full of statistical noise, it’s notable that Toronto went 18-13 with Manoah on the hill last year and 4-9 prior to his demotion in 2023.

If Manoah is really back, the Blue Jays have five starters they can trust and don’t have to rely on Hyun-jin Ryu as anything more than a wild card — or put a large number of trade assets towards a starter at the deadline.

The range of outcomes for Manoah in the second half is massive, and the best version of the 2023 Blue Jays features the 25-year-old as a reliable option.

The expectations surrounding Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have invited an undue amount of criticism at times, but the first baseman has more in his bat than we’ve seen in 2022.

Although his expected numbers have been strong all season, that hasn’t always translated to production. The good news for the Blue Jays is that his power has been trending up in recent weeks.

In his last 15 games he’s hit .271/.338/.542. That’s not peak Vladdy, but it’s solid power output from a player who’s struggled to produce extra-base hits at his usual pace for most of the season.

It would be unfair to assume his Home Run Derby performance will spark a second-half resurgence, but for what it’s worth his wRC+ was significantly better following his 2019 performance (113) than it was before (98).

In many cases the easiest way to pick out underachievers and overachievers during an MLB season is to identify which teams have been the healthiest or most snake-bitten.

That’s not a glamorous way of analyzing the majors, and teams are always reluctant to make excuses or credit injury luck as a reason for their success — so you won’t see many reporters getting quotations from managers and GMs about the health of their squads. As a result, it’s a factor that often goes under-discussed.

In the Blue Jays’ case, the team has not performed to expectations with a core group of players that’s been extremely durable. Bichette, Guerrero, Matt Chapman, George Springer and Daulton Varsho have missed a combined 13 games. No one in the rotation has suffered a significant injury.

The catching position has been hit by the injury bug to some degree — and Jordan Romano’s status coming out of the All-Star Game is yet to be determined — but generally speaking the Blue Jays have been healthy.

It’s anyone’s guess whether that can continue to the degree it has so far, but a step back in health could be a huge blow for a team that doesn’t have much rotation depth or top-notch bench options.

While the Blue Jays have notable right-handed hitters like Guerrero, Bichette, Chapman, and Springer they haven’t hit southpaws well. The team’s wRC+ against lefties (96) ranks 23rd in MLB so far.

Sometimes a statistic like that is just the result of not facing enough left-handers or players on the roster not living up to their typical standards. For the Blue Jays there is a structural issue.

Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were two of the team’s most reliable lefty mashers in recent years and now its starting outfield includes two players — Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier — who are tough to trust when they don’t have the platoon advantage. The same can be said for top DH option Brandon Belt.

As it stands, the Blue Jays don’t have dangerous right-handed bats to bring off the bench to compensate for this issue. Santiago Espinal has not performed well offensively this season, and both catchers are usually in the lineup against lefties. 

Ernie Clement has been an option against left-handers at times, but the club needs to find a more reliable option or two around the deadline — preferably with the ability to play in the outfield.

This is a storyline that’s been beaten to death, and it’s a relatively simplistic one — so we’ll save some words. 

Here are the Blue Jays’ splits by situation:

Until these numbers shift the Blue Jays’ offence cannot reach its potential, and a result, neither can the team.