What surprising Gimenez deal means for the Blue Jays

DALLAS — Within the Blue Jays’ suite at the Hilton Anatole, team decision-makers mulled a difficult choice Tuesday afternoon.

Should they hold onto Spencer Horwitz and preserve $20 million in valuable payroll flexibility or push hard for a trade with the Cleveland Guardians in the hopes that an elite defensive player can bounce back at the plate? 

These decisions are never easy, and the Blue Jays need to get their big moves right if they’re going to rebound from an 88-loss season and make the playoffs in 2025. It was time for those in the suite to make their case, and the discussion that followed was spirited.

“It can create for some more lively debates and discussions,” said GM Ross Atkins. “Sometimes you have to make the room smaller.”

Eventually, the Blue Jays reached a decision — make the move — and soon afterwards, they sent infielder Spencer Horwitz and minor-league outfielder Nick Mitchell to Cleveland for second baseman Andrés Giménez and reliever Nick Sandlin. The Blue Jays are covering all of the $96.5 million remaining on Giménez’s contract, which adds nearly $20 million to the 2025 payroll, impacting their ability to spend elsewhere.

All of this comes on the heels of a two-year, $15 million agreement with reliever Yimi Garcia Tuesday afternoon, making the Blue Jays one of the more active teams in the sport. Only the Yankees topped them, agreeing to an eight-year, $218 million deal with left-hander Max Fried, who had also been a Blue Jays target.

All things considered, then, this was a pivotal day for the Blue Jays, not only because of what they did but because of the trade’s implications elsewhere on the roster and what it suggests about their next off-season moves.

First of all, there’s Giménez the player. Now 26, he's a phenomenal defender at second base, where he's won back-to-back Gold Gloves. He has exceptional range — 100th percentile, according to Baseball Savant — and should help Blue Jays pitchers keep runs off the board for years to come. 

As a hitter, though, his profile is less certain. He hit just .252 with nine home runs and a .638 OPS in 2024 on the way to an OPS+ of 82. While his lifetime OPS+ of 101 shows he's capable of being a league-average batter, he ranked in the bottom ten percentile of big-league hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate and walk rate this year.

If he’s going to make another all-star team, the Blue Jays will need to get more out of his bat.

"We do feel that there is potential there," Atkins said. "We feel strongly about some upside."

Steamer's projection system agrees, forecasting 14 home runs, 27 stolen bases and a .714 OPS on the way to 3.1 wins above replacement. That’s certainly in line with Gimenez's career numbers, as he's averaged 4.2 FanGraphs WAR in his three full big-league seasons, or 5.6 Baseball-Reference WAR. He’s a very good player.

Elsewhere on the diamond, the move means Will Wagner will shift into a Cavan Biggio-type utility role where he covers some first and some second, while Ernie Clement and Addison Barger are the leading candidates to play third. Gimenez could help Clement back up Bo Bichette at short, and he offers insurance should Bichette leave as a free agent this time next year.

At the same time, Gimenez doesn’t address the Blue Jays’ need for power or starting pitching. Put another way, there’s the question of opportunity cost — what else could they have gotten for Horwitz, and what does the $20 million allocated toward Gimenez mean for their other pursuits?

Accounting for the additions of Garcia, Gimenez and Sandlin, the Blue Jays’ projected payroll now sits at $228 million, according to Roster Resource. Team president Mark Shapiro has said he doesn’t see 2025 payroll “growing or decreasing in a big way,” and last year’s team finished around $238 million, just below the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold. 

The Blue Jays are now $13 million away from the first CBT threshold, so depending on how you interpret Shapiro’s statement, they might have $13 to $23 million to spend, barring a special allocation from ownership at Rogers Communications Inc., which also owns Sportsnet.

An exception could theoretically be made for someone like Corbin Burnes or Alex Bregman, but the Blue Jays' baseball ops team has stayed disciplined so far this winter, and their bids for Juan Soto and Fried have been substantially lower than the eventual winners, sources told Sportsnet. With that in mind, a deal with Burnes or Bregman seems less likely.

So, while the Blue Jays made themselves a lot better Tuesday by adding Giménez and a couple of quality relievers, some tough decisions are likely coming because every dollar counts. One source with knowledge of their plans believes the Blue Jays are done spending on relievers for now.

Maybe they could still find room for a starter like Nick Pivetta or Sean Manaea, but that would impact their ability to add a big bat. Perhaps they will find a way to land Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez or Joc Pederson, but their rotation doesn’t get the upgrade they’d hoped for. Or, who knows, they could stay patient and find a way to do it all.

What’s clear now is the Blue Jays have placed a huge bet on Giménez, not only for 2025 but for the future, as he’s now the player under contract furthest into the future. He’s a good player, one who makes the Blue Jays better in important ways. Less clear for the moment is how the Blue Jays will find ways to add the power and pitching this roster still needs.